MLB Manager Hot Seat Rankings: Who Is Most Likely to Get Fired After 2024 Season?
MLB Manager Hot Seat Rankings: Who Is Most Likely to Get Fired After 2024 Season?0 of 8
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One job with the least amount of security in sport is manager of a Major League Baseball team.
Performance has to meet expectations and, in some cases, exceed them. Each manager’s situation is different, but that’s the general idea.
For some teams, underachieving means missing the postseason entirely; for others, it could mean constantly getting to October but failing to capitalize.
Some managers are leading losing teams but remain safe, thanks to ownership indifference, while others are managing winning teams that need high-level performances in the postseason to survive.
Here, we rank the skippers most likely to get fired at the conclusion of the 2024 season. The expected postseason managers on the hot seat are in their own special category, plus honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions1 of 8
Derek SheltonJustin K. Aller/Getty Images
A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers don’t necessarily have huge expectations, but it must be difficult for them to see division rivals in Cleveland and Kansas City produce with their young talent.
A.J. Hinch is trying to capture his first winning season in year four with Detroit. If he does it, his job should be safe. It’s no guarantee, though.
Derek Shelton, Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Shelton signed a contract extension with the Pirates last year, but the terms were undisclosed. Things seemed to work out earlier in the season, though, when Pittsburgh looked like a legitimate wild-card threat.
However, earlier in August, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Pirates’ free-fall out of the race could cost the 54-year-old his job.
David Bell, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds had much higher expectations this season than struggling to live at .500.
They’re in a competitive division and hold an expected win-loss record that’s six games better than their actual record. Their run differential is plus-25. They can’t win the one-run games, with a record of 10-24 in such contests.
David Bell is well-liked within the organization and signed a three-year extension last season, but he shouldn’t be comfortable in his spot, considering this season’s disappointment and the inability to squeeze out more one-run games.
Postseason Pressure2 of 8
Dave RobertsNick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dave Roberts is, arguably, the most accomplished manager on this list. The Los Angeles Dodgers have made the postseason in each of the eight seasons he’s managed the team, and seven of those postseason berths came from division titles.
The Dodgers have appeared in the World Series three times and won it all in the pandemic-abbreviated 2020 season under the 52-year-old.
Then, you look at the team this year, and it’s a prime opportunity to make another run. The Dodgers are the class of the NL, battling the Philadelphia Phillies for the top seed.
For all of the success under Roberts’ leadership, they have also experienced disappointing postseason finishes with some of the most talented rosters in the league.
The question is whether he can survive another short October.
Aaron Boone, New York Yankees
Everything is positioned perfectly for the Yankees to reach the World Series for the first time since they last won it in 2009.
They traded for Juan Soto to elevate and balance their previously right hand-dominated lineup.
Aaron Judge and Soto lead all of baseball in OPS, although the lineup lacks depth. Their team ERA is the second-best in the AL and ranks third in opponents’ batting average.
They are battling the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East and are certainly a threat in the postseason, even as a potential wild card with their top-heavy star power.
Aaron Boone, especially after a letdown in 2023 when the Yankees only won 82 games, is out of excuses for the team not reaching its goals. A disappointing postseason showing could result in New York moving on.
As MLB insider Jon Heyman noted, the general view is that he needs to win a playoff round, though he does have the favor of his bosses.
6. Skip Schumaker, Miami Marlins3 of 8
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Marlins Career Record: 132-162
Career Accolades: 2023 NL Manager of the Year, 2023 NL Wild Card
This one has a bit of a twist because it’s not so much the Marlins firing Schumaker as it is Schumaker firing the Marlins. To be fair, he wouldn’t be the only manager considered to be far better than his current situation.
The 44-year-old had a team option for the 2025 season, but he negotiated it out of his contract last winter, making him a free agent at the end of this campaign. The Marlins would still be interested in his services if he was interested in providing them.
However, considering the number of managerial openings expected this offseason and Schumaker’s wide popularity after winning 2023 NL Manager of the Year, he should be a prime candidate for a better opportunity.
Miami’s 48-85 record is the worst in the NL, and its minus-190 run differential is only better than the Colorado Rockies’ minus-202.
The Marlins’ pitching holds the second-worst FIP in the NL. Only the Rockies and Chicago White Sox, who already fired their manager, have a worse ERA.
Schumaker is probably monitoring the firings around MLB and counting down the days until his phone can start ringing.
5. Mark Kotsay, Oakland Athletics4 of 8
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A’s Career Record: 167-289
Career Accolades: N/A
New city, new manager.
Mark Kotsay is another fall guy for a franchise that isn’t trying to win games or simply doing a poor job of it. It would be dishonest to blame all of the A’s problems on him.
The 48-year-old can’t escape his record, though. He is already more than 100 games below .500 with less than three seasons managing the team.
They also have the second-highest ERA and third-highest FIP, which serves to illustrate how Oakland has produced one of the worst teams in baseball since he got the job.
It makes sense for the A’s to enter their next era with a fresh start in Sacramento next season, even if it seems unfair to the manager. Kotsay’s option was picked up for the 2024 season, but he has no contract beyond it.
4. Bud Black, Colorado Rockies5 of 8
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Rockies Career Record: 525-640
Career Accolades: N/A
The only team worse than the Rockies is the Chicago White Sox and they’ve already fired their manager. The Miami Marlins are right there with the Rockies and could lose their manager to a better situation.
The point is that a team this bad should be rethinking things and challenging the status quo. The Rockies are not really showing signs of progress, currently with the worst run differential in baseball by a wide margin.
Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported on May 1 that they were negotiating a potential contract extension to keep Black through 2025. However, there was no update on those talks, and the team has only regressed since then.
Last year, the 67-year-old signed a one-year extension to cover the 2024 season, his third contract since originally signing with the team in 2017.
Those were better times when he helped lead the Rockies to back-to-back postseason appearances in 2017 and 2018. Six straight losing seasons have followed, and Colorado is in danger of its first set of back-to-back 100-loss seasons.
Black hasn’t exactly been working with an optimal major league roster, but he’s no different than his peers in that the manager is, typically, the first scapegoat for failure.
3. Dave Martinez, Washington Nationals6 of 8
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Nationals Career Record: 452-551
Career Accolades: 2019 World Series winner
It’s worth asking how long a struggling manager can live off winning the World Series.
We’re approaching five years since the Washington Nationals beat the Houston Astros in seven games, making Dave Martinez a World Series manager.
Since then, the Nationals have endured a lot of losing. They lose games. They lose players. Absent a miraculous late run, this will be their fifth straight losing season, which includes a 107-loss campaign in 2022.
Martinez can’t be blamed for all of this. The Nationals made business decisions to trade away players such as Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. It feels so long ago when those guys played together.
Washington’s not good at anything now. Its pitching staff has the second-highest batting average against and the fourth-worst WHIP.
Offensively, they are bottom-eight in wRC+, fWAR and bottom-10 in runs scored. There is no performance justification for keeping Martinez outside of the 2019 World Series.
He signed a two-year contract extension last August, but it’s worth the Nationals considering whether the 59-year-old should usher them into a new era or if they prefer to rip off the band aid instead of what could be a lame-duck season for him in 2025.
2. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays7 of 8
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Jays Career Record: 200-170
Career Accolades: 2022 and 2023 Wild-Card Berth
It’s yet another disappointing year for the consistently underachieving Blue Jays. They fired Charlie Montoyo two years ago, and they have made the postseason in the two years since, albeit with swift wild-card exits.
The Blue Jays won’t get that far this season, as they sit in last place in baseball’s most competitive division.
While a 65-70 record may be the most for any last-place team, it might not be enough to save John Schneider, who is set to follow an unceremonious ending to last season with another falling flat.
Remember his decision to pull Jose Berrios early in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card Series, which led to disastrous results? Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins publicly expressed his surprise by the quick hook, which indicated that the manager and GM might not be on the same page.
Plus, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that Atkins and Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro will probably survive this season while pointing to Schneider as the potential fall guy.
1. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals8 of 8
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Cardinals Career Record: 229-227
Career Accolades: 2022 NL Central title
The Cardinals are in danger of finishing below .500 for the second straight season. It’s a massive disappointment considering they looked like a playoff team just a month ago around the MLB trade deadline.
Through August, though, they have slowly faded out of the playoff picture as their offense continues to struggle. They are in the bottom five in runs scored for the month.
Despite being third in the NL Central, St. Louis also has the worst run differential and expected win-loss record in its division.
Marmol, who became the youngest MLB manager at age 35 when he was appointed in October 2021, also has Cardinals legend Yadier Molina lingering in the background.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported front-office and managerial changes are possible. Molina, long considered a future manager back when he was catching for St. Louis, is a potential candidate to replace Marmol.
