MLB odds, picks: Best bets for division titles, pennant races and World Series as playoff push begins

The dust has settled after the 2024 MLB trade deadline. There were a flurry of moves, though we were a bit light on major needle-movers when it comes to shifting the odds for the betting futures market. Still, we have a much better idea of what the contenders’ rosters will look like the rest of the way, so it’s worth taking a dive. 

AL EastIt looks like a two-team lead right now with the Orioles holding a 1/2-game lead over the Yankees and both maybe, possibly, starting to recover from bad stretches. The Red Sox have fallen to seven games back while the Rays are 9 1/2 out and likely got worse — at least in 2024 — at the deadline. 

Odds to win the division: 

Yankees -175Orioles +125Red Sox +5000Rays +30000If you really believe in the Rays or Red Sox, those are great odds. I don’t. 

It’s the Yankees or Orioles here. I could truly go either way. Both teams have plenty of warts along with their immense upside. Are the gains the Yankees have made on offense the last five games — all wins — real? Surely they can’t count on that much from D.J. LeMahieu, who drove home all six runs Wednesday, but there’s reason to believe Jazz Chisholm, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres can provide enough help for the historically-good combo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. There are also reasons to believe they won’t. 

The Orioles have a ton of firepower on offense and there are reasons to believe the additions on the pitching side — starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers, relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto — are enough to keep the O’s on top. Again, there are also reasons to doubt these moves were enough. 

The Yankees and Orioles have three games left against each other and those don’t happen until the final week. Hopefully they matter. 

I had the Orioles in the spring and I’m going to stick with them, especially in a coin toss at plus money. 

AL CentralThe Guardians have actually been under .500 since June 25 (14-16). It’s an arbitrary endpoint used to illustrate a point that they haven’t been a monster for a little bit. Still, they hold a six-game lead over both the Royals and Twins and that’s a decent hill to climb in two months. 

Odds to win the AL Central: 

Guardians -250Twins +250Royals +1000The Guardians added Lane Thomas’ bat and Alex Cobb’s arm at the deadline. The Royals added Paul DeJong’s bat, Michael Lorenzen to the rotation and Lucas Erceg to the bullpen. The Twins didn’t really do anything. They’ve had issues staying healthy and had a brutal start, so maybe close to full health and playing like they can will be enough. 

I believed the Guardians were going to win the division before the deadline and nothing happened at the deadline to change that, but I’m intrigued by the Royals. That rotation can be so good while Bobby Witt Jr. is having a season for the ages. Any Twins supporters out there can cling to this: The Guardians have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule by opponent’s winning percentage while the Royals have the second toughest (the Rays are first). The Twins’ strength of schedule is middle of the road. 

The Royals and Twins have six remaining games, the Guardians and Royals have seven and the Twins and Guardians have eight. 

AL WestThe Astros and Mariners are in a virtual tie with the Rangers sitting 4 1/2 games back. The Mariners have been rough for a while as the Astros have been great since a brutal start. The Rangers can’t seem to get themselves going, as they’ve now lost five of six since a five-game winning streak (four of those came against the hapless White Sox at home). 

Odds to win the AL West: 

Astros -130Mariners +130Rangers +900The Mariners added Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena to their pathetic offense and maybe Julio Rodríguez plays MVP-caliber ball once he’s off the injured list. I still don’t think it’s enough offense. The Rangers have been so inconsistent for four months that it’s hard for me to count on them to put it together for two. I know the pitching is getting healthier, but the offense has been a problem, too, and not just because of injuries. Plus, Evan Carter isn’t coming back. The Rangers are out for me. 

And I just can’t count on the Mariners’ offense. The Astros will win this division. Again. 

To make playoffs (AL)You can’t bet on the wild card, but if you believe in a team to make the playoffs and not win the division — or just want an easier path to victory than betting on a division winner — you can jump on a team to make the playoffs. 

Here are some of the plays that could make sense to grab as making the playoffs instead of taking them to win the division. 

Rangers +650 to make playoffsTwins +430 to miss playoffsI’m not playing either of these. I’ve lost faith in the Rangers and the Twins are very likely to make the playoffs. The price tags could be very attractive to anyone looking for the Rangers to get hot, but not hot enough to pass the Astros, or for the Twins to fall apart. Remember, you’re betting what you want, not what I want. 

Also, the Royals making the playoffs at -140 isn’t bad at all. They are currently in playoff position with the uninspiring Red Sox, Mariners and Rays trailing them. 

NL EastThe Phillies’ lead over the Braves is down to 6 1/2 games and the Mets are eight out. The Braves recently lost six straight while watching Ozzie Albies suffer a long-term injury. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are already out for the season. They’ve won four of five now, though, against the Mets and Brewers. The Phillies have lost 10 of their last 13 games, including five straight. 

Odds to win the NL East: 

Phillies -650Braves +400Mets +2000The Phillies odds here are way too steep to bet on them right now. If you believe the Phillies will still win the division, as I do, it’s probably a stay away. 

Any Braves fans out there believing a few trades (Jorge Soler, namely) and internal improvement from some underachieving players will lead to a shocking comeback, +400 is a pretty good price. Since June 2, the Mets have been the best team here and if they keep that up, I suppose they could shock the world. If you believe in that, +2000 is huge (betting just $10 would win you $200). 

The Phillies do have issues. Ranger Suárez is on the injured list and had a 7.71 ERA in his last four starts before landing there. Cristopher Sánchez has a 6.59 ERA in his last five starts, too. One of the main reasons the Phillies were so dominant before July was their starting pitching.

I still believe it’s just a blip. Even the best teams have awful stretches in each season. Every team this season has. This is just the Phillies’ bad stretch. They’re fine. 

NL CentralThe Brewers have a five-game lead over the Cardinals. The Pirates are six back. Each team made tweaks going into the deadline, but nothing to move the needle signficantly. The Reds are nine back while the Cubs are 10 back. 

Odds to win the NL Central: 

Brewers -450Cardinals +575Pirates +1100Reds +3000Cubs +4500I think the Cubs have a real shot — no, I’m kidding. The Cubs and Reds don’t need to be included here. 

The Brewers have easily been the best team here and have a nice cushion. They got stud closer Devin Williams back off the injured list, too. It’s possible Frankie Montas gives them good work the rest of the way in the rotation, too. I am worried about their offense with Christian Yelich’s back injury being very concerning. There’s nothing to be trusted about the Cardinals, though. Could the Pirates really do this? It feels like at least a year too early. The rotation is top heavy and the offense isn’t very good, even with the decent additions of Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

But I really did look at that +1100 on the Pirates for a second, I tell ya. Of course, they also have a brutal upcoming schedule. 

NL WestThe Dodgers have the lead and have for basically the entire season. They were tied for first a few days early on, but otherwise have had a cushion. Said cushion has dropped from 8 1/2 games to 4 1/2 in the past week. The Padres are in second but the Diamondbacks are only five back. The Giants are 9 1/2 back. 

Here are the odds to win the NL West: 

Dodgers -1500Padres +700Diamondbacks +2000Giants +25000First things first, those Dodgers odds are outrageous. Though they are likely to win the division, only a crazy-aggressive gambler would lay the -1500 right now. The Dodgers went 11-13 in July and have an incredibly banged up rotation. The addition of Jack Flaherty helps, but they’ll need questions answered by Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow (workload), Gavin Stone (workload), Walker Buehler (injury) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (injury) before the end of the season. The returns from injury by Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman and maybe Max Muncy will help deepen the lineup. 

They’re still a good team on pace to win 94 games, but this isn’t the open-and-shut case -1500 odds say it is. 

The Padres are hot and just added two studs (Jason Adam and Tanner Scott) to their bullpen. The offense is soon to get Fernando Tatis Jr. back while the rotation will get Joe Musgrove back. 

Since June 28, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-8 (the best record in baseball in that stretch) with a +65 run differential. They’ll get Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez off the injured list, though the acquisition of Josh Bell is probably a bad sign regarding the Christian Walker oblique injury. 

I still think the Dodgers are going to win the division, but I’d be OK with throwing some action on the Padres or D-backs at those prices. 

There’s also this: The Padres have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, with a combined opponent’s winning percentage of .475. Included in there are three games against the White Sox, three against the carcass of the Marlins and six against the Rockies. They also have three more head-to-head matchups against the Dodgers. 

To make playoffs (NL)The Padres line to make the playoffs is a less-than-attractive -250, but the Diamondbacks are at -120 and I like that. If you believe in a Pirates run that has them falling short of the division title, you could get them at +360 to make the playoffs. The Mets are -105 to make the playoffs.

Any of these are reasonable.

This one caught my eye: The Braves are +400 to miss the playoffs. They are only 1 1/2 games up in playoff position right now and though they are going well in the last five games, they’ve hardly inspired confidence this season. If you want to root against the Braves with a little extra juice on it, have at this one.

AL pennantYankees +240Orioles +350Astros +600Guardians +600Twins +650Mariners +1200Royals +1500Red Sox +2000Rangers +2500If you believe the Rangers make the playoffs, you might as well lay the +2500 here, too. I don’t think they will, though. 

I had the Orioles preseason and I’ll stick with them, but I’m also looking at their playoff rotation and find myself pretty worried. If I was going to add a play here to hedge a bit, the Astros and Twins are pretty intriguing. I like the Royals’ number, too, because that rotation could really be great in the playoffs.

The Mariners are worth watching. I don’t believe in them, but if the offense comes together down the stretch — I’ll pause for laughter — they have the type of pitching that could carry a team to the pennant. 

Oh and if anyone is interested, the White Sox are +45000 to win the AL pennant. 

NL pennantDodgers +160Phillies +240Braves +550Brewers +900Padres +1200Mets +1700Diamondbacks +2000Cardinals +3500Giants +4500Pirates +6000The Pirates are the super-duper value play, but only with an insignificant amount of money. I’m talking like 5% or 10% of what you’d usually bet just for sport, because it very, very likely isn’t coming close to happening. 

The Phillies were my preseason play and I still believe in them. They are the top play for me right now. 

I don’t believe in the Braves or Brewers, but the Padres at +1200 really perked me up. There’s my normal value play and I thought about the D-backs to repeat as NL pennant winners at +2000.

World Series champDodgers +300Phillies +450Yankees +550Orioles +750Braves +1100Astros +1200Guardians +1300Twins +1600Brewers +2000Padres +2500Mariners +2800Mets +3000Royals +3000Red Sox +3300Diamondbacks +4000Rangers +5000Cardinals +8000Pirates +8500Giants +10000The Phillies were my preseason pick and I’m sticking with them. They remain my pick to win the 2024 World Series. They’ll get it all figured out here shortly. It just might get worse before it gets better, as they head out west to face the Mariners, Dodgers and Diamondbacks before returning home. That six-game homestand against the Marlins and Nationals is when they will get fully back on track.

All the teams mentioned in the pennant discussions are of interest here. I see value in playing the Astros, Twins, Padres, Mariners (I guess), Royals, Diamondbacks and just a wee, teeny, little sprinkle of pie-in-the-sky interest in the Pirates.