Monaco Grand Prix qualifying: Will this be Charles Leclerc’s day?

Welcome to qualifying day at the Monaco Grand Prix.

On Formula 1’s biggest stage, qualifying day is everything.

That may bode well for hometown hero Charles Leclerc, who topped the timing sheets in Friday’s second practice session. If history holds, that likely means a pole position for Leclerc, as the last five editions of the Monaco Grand Prix have seen the driver atop the timing sheets in FP2 go on to capture pole position.

Even scarier for the rest of the field?

Leclerc thinks he can find even more time on the Monte Carlo streets.

“I think there’s more pace in me just putting everything together,” said Leclerc following Friday’s two practice sessions. “If you look at my three sectors, there was quite a bit of lap time in them when you put all of it together, so that will be the main focus for tomorrow. But let’s say performance and feeling is there.”

Leclerc’s struggles in his hometown race are well documented, as the Monégasque driver has yet to taste victory at home at any level of racing. In fact, Leclerc is among those five previous drivers who have taken pole position after topping the timing sheets in FP2, as he did just that in the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix. Leclerc was on provisional pole in Q3 that year, and a late crash by the Ferrari driver in that third session froze the field, clinching pole position for the hometown hero.

But the damage was enough that his SF21 suffered a failure on the reconnaissance lap, and he did not start the race.

Perhaps … perhaps that all changes for Leclerc starting later today.

Leclerc’s chances to break his hometown curse is perhaps the main storyline for qualifying day at the Monaco Grand Prix, but it is not the only one.

Is Red Bull truly on the back foot?
Think back to a week ago.

The stories coming out of Imola, site of last weekend’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, mirror the stories we are currently hearing today. Max Verstappen was frustrated with the RB20, other teams were atop the timing sheets — a week ago Leclerc was fastest in both FP1 and FP2 — and perhaps the door was open for another team to truly bring the fight to Verstappen and company in qualifying, and the race itself.

Well, as we have seen so many times before, Verstappen slammed that door shut. He took pole position after a stronger showing in FP3, and went on to win the race on Sunday.

But this weekend feels a little different.

First there was Verstappen’s feedback about the RB20 throughout practice, which he compared to a kangaroo:

Then there was what the driver said following the session, when he brushed aside comparisons to last week’s struggles in Imola. “I don’t think I even can describe what is actually going on. It’s just very difficult. It’s not something that I didn’t expect, but it’s definitely at the higher end of the worst possible outcome of the weekend so far,” said Verstappen on Friday.

“Imola was completely different, also different issues that you can solve with set-up,” he continued. “These kind of things you cannot solve with set-up.

“It’s how the car is made and designed, and these kind of things you cannot change overnight, so we are stuck with that. We’ll try to make it a little bit better but I don’t expect any miracles,” continued Verstappen. “[Ferrari] are miles ahead. I’m not even thinking about that for tomorrow, I just want to try and solve the issues that we have, try and make it a little bit more driveable, and then we’ll see where we end up.”

F1 fans and analysts alike have heard this story before. After all, when sharing a piece summarizing his Friday struggles on Threads last week I did so with a caption that read “I mean [Verstappen] will still probably put it on pole and win on Sunday but …”

And he did just that.

Can he do that again this week, or are Verstappen and Red Bull truly on the back foot heading into qualifying?

A Mercedes stunner?
Another shocking note from Friday’s dual practice sessions?

Some surprising strength from Mercedes.

The team has been talking about progress these past few weeks, but Friday was perhaps the first day all season when Mercedes truly looked like they could fight for points, but for a podium. Lewis Hamilton topped the timing sheets in FP1, with teammate George Russell coming in P3, and they were strong again in FP2, with Hamilton up in second.

Could the Silver Arrows deliver a Saturday shocker in Monaco?

“It’s been a good day, probably the best we’ve had so far this year, and the car is feeling very positive. This track is just amazing in an F1 car, and I’ve been enjoying my driving today – I was pleasantly surprised by the grip level and the way the car was responding, which made it a much more enjoyable ride than the last two years,” said Hamilton in the team’s post-practice report. “In the second session, it felt a bit less comfortable, and we’ve got lots of work to do overnight to improve the long runs and the front graining. It was a feeling positive on the lower fuel, and we don’t want to lose that, but our focus now is to improve on the long run.”

While Russell experienced some vibrations in the steering wheel during FP2, which hampered his performance, he too thought it was one of the best Fridays the team has had this season.

“That was one of our best Fridays of the year, and the car is feeling the best I’ve ever had in Monaco. My session was limited by the steering vibration – as soon as I touched the brakes, the steering system was shaking, and on a track like this where you need confidence to attack, that really set me back,” said Russell. “Every team is developing so quickly, and you can see how much faster the lap times are this year than last. The car is feeling good, and Lewis’s times showed the performance that’s in there, but Charles (Leclerc) is very quick, and we know as well how quickly things can change. I hope we will be fighting for the top five tomorrow.”

Simulation data from F1.com shows that they very well could be in the fight for the top five tomorrow:

Similar to the Red Bull discussion, we have been down this road before with Mercedes. They were strong in the single Friday practice at the Miami Grand Prix, for example, before fading over the rest of the week.

But similar to how things feel different at Red Bull when compared to previous weeks, this too feels a little different regarding Mercedes. They may truly be in the fight.

Do not forget about McLaren
Then there is McLaren.

It was a bit of a mixed Friday for McLaren. Oscar Piastri was the second-fastest driver in FP1, with Lando Norris close behind in P4.

The second practice session was a bit of a different story, with Norris up in P5 and Piastri outside the top ten, down in P12.

Still, the team called it a “productive” afternoon, and they believe they have the MCL38 — Ayrton Senna tribute livery and all — in a good window heading into Saturday.

“That’s Friday done in Monaco. I’d say it’s been a pretty good day overall. The pace has looked good but it’s very, very tight between a lot of teams today, so it’s difficult to say where we could net out,” said Piastri in the team’s post-practice report. “We’ve got some things to look at and tweak overnight, but I feel like we’re in a good place. It’s going to be an exciting Saturday.”

“It was a productive day of practice here in Monaco. We worked through our planned programme without any issue. The threatened rain didn’t materialise, so we had plenty of time to evaluate tyres, understand setup and give the drivers as much track time as possible,” said Team Principal Andrea Stella. “The battle at the front seems very interesting: there are quite a few quick teams. We’ll work hard this evening to maximise our potential, have a good qualifying session tomorrow and score points in a race that may still be affected by the weather.”

Who wins the Aston Martin/VCARB fight?
If the qualifying simulation data holds to form, the final two spots in Q3 could come down to a fight between Aston Martin and Visa Cash App RB F1 team.

The VCARB drivers in particular sounded confident following Friday’s sessions.

“It was another positive first day for us. Straight from FP1, I felt positive. There are still some little things we can improve on to extract the performance but that’s what practice is for. For example, I think we can improve in general in the braking phase because we had a couple slides there and obviously with this C5 [tire], it’s very sensitive,” said Yuki Tsunoda in the team’s post-practice report. “Other than that, warmup is good and everything is positive, so it’s just fine-tuning the little things that always count, especially here in Monaco. The general pace is there and I’m looking forward to improving another step tomorrow, maximising it for qualifying.”

“I’m happy with the work we did today, I think that we have some pace in hand, and probably the timesheets didn’t show the full picture, so hopefully putting on some softs tomorrow we can be fighting inside the top 10,” added Daniel Ricciardo. “I feel like I got myself into a better rhythm towards the end of FP2 and was happy with the last lap I did on the mediums. Considering everything, I think we’re in a good place and now it’s a matter of putting the setup together.”

A fascinating fight between these two teams is starting to take form in the Constructors’ Championship. At the moment Aston Martin sits fifth with 44 points, 24 points ahead of sixth-place VCARB. But the team that has the stronger day on Saturday will be in good postion to either extend that lead — or cut into that deficit — on Sunday.