Most Intriguing What-If Scenarios Within a Week of the 2024 NFL Draft

Most Intriguing What-If Scenarios Within a Week of the 2024 NFL Draft0 of 6

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr.Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We can spend countless hours on NFL mock draft simulators and still have no clue what teams will do, which is what makes the buildup to the 2024 NFL draft so much fun.

Remember the early shocker last year, when the Houston Texans selected C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick and then traded up to No. 3 for Will Anderson Jr.? Who saw that coming?

While plenty of draft analysts and team reporters focus on logical picks, you must leave room for surprises. With that in mind, we put together six what-if draft scenarios that could happen and explained how each situation would unfold next Thursday.

These scenarios are connected to one another, meaning one player will only be linked to one team.

What If the Giants, Patriots Swap First-Rounders Then Draft Their Quarterbacks?1 of 6

Quarterback Drake MayeKara Durrette/Getty Images

New York Giants owner John Mara told reporters in March that he wouldn’t stop general manager Joe Schoen from taking a quarterback during the draft, but he expects Daniel Jones to start in 2024.

While Mara voiced his support for Jones, his comments opened the door for speculation.

Although Jones played in only six games last season because of injuries, he seemed to regress after showing some promising signs in 2022. He threw for only 909 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions while going 1-5 as a starter last year.

Last offseason, the Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million contract with $81 million guaranteed. He has a $47.9 million cap number this year, though New York can cut him next offseason and save $30.5 million in cap space.

Schoen would be admitting that he made a mistake in signing Jones to a multiyear deal if he makes an aggressive move for UNC quarterback Drake Maye. Nonetheless, The Athletic’s Dan Duggan has reason to believe that the Giants will attempt to trade up for Maye.

“It’s impossible to ignore the amount of work the Giants have done on quarterbacks leading up to the draft, and I believe they’ll try to trade up to land Maye,” Duggan wrote.

If the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders take Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels with the Nos. 1 and 2 picks, respectively, Big Blue could try to strike a deal with the New England Patriots at No. 3.

If Jones plays well in 2024, the Giants could potentially trade him to a team that misses out on a quarterback in this year’s draft. In the event that he struggles, Maye could play in his rookie year.

This would be an awkward situation for Jones, but the Giants don’t have to double down on what seems like a miscalculated investment in him.

While the Patriots would be a questionable fit for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, they did meet with him, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, which suggests possible interest. They might be able to get him with the Giants’ pick at No. 6, and they’d likely acquire multiple Day 2 picks in this deal, similar to the trade between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills in 2018.

What If the Jets Acquire Pick No. 8 to Draft Rome Odunze?2 of 6

Wide receiver Rome OdunzeKevin Sabitus/Getty Images

The New York Jets can let the draft board dictate what they will do with the No. 10 overall pick and still get a quality prospect for their pass-catching group or offensive line. With that being said, general manager Joe Douglas should take an aggressive approach given the pressure on this regime to make the playoffs.

Douglas has a 27-56 record as the Jets’ general manager, and head coach Robert Saleh has an 18-33 record with the team. Moreover, they probably feel a sense of urgency with Aaron Rodgers, who is going into his age-40 campaign and is coming off a torn Achilles.

The Jets could make a strong move for a top wide receiver without giving up a bunch of premium picks.

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles moved up one spot for defensive tackle Jalen Carter, giving up pick No. 10 and a fourth-rounder. The Jets may be able pull off a similar deal with the Atlanta Falcons for Washington receiver Rome Odunze (if available) to jump in front of the Chicago Bears, who could draft a wideout at No. 9.

According to ESPN’s Louis Riddick, “many evaluators” rank Malik Nabers above Marvin Harrison Jr. among the incoming wide receivers. If they’re the top two wideouts off the board in some order, the Jets can snag the third-best receiver.

Wide receiver Mike Williams, who is recovering from a torn ACL, told reporters that he’ll be ready for Week 1. However, he’s missed 18 games over the last two seasons. Even if Williams is ready for the season opener, the Jets might be cautious with his snap count.

Rodgers would have a top-tier receiving group with Garrett Wilson, Odunze and Williams in a crucial all-gas-no-brake season.

What If the Vikings Draft Michael Penix Jr. with the 11th Pick?3 of 6

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr.Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

After the Minnesota Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans in March, many prognosticators expect them to bundle their two first-rounders to move up for a quarterback. While the Vikings could make that deal on draft day, they might also strike out with potential trade partners.

Knowing the Denver Broncos (12th) and Las Vegas Raiders (13th) need a quarterback, the Vikings should strongly consider a signal-caller at No. 11 if they feel strongly about one of the available prospects.

Michael Penix Jr. didn’t garner much first-round buzz until his impressive pro day, although he’s firmly in the media discussion as a potential Day 1 pick. Minnesota could be an ideal landing spot for Penix just outside the top 10.

Over his last two years at Washington, Penix had a strong supporting cast, including three wide receivers and two offensive linemen ranked in the top 100 of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department’s latest big board.

In Minnesota, Penix would have an accomplished and ascending pass-catching group that features Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. On his blind side, he could rely on right tackle Brian O’Neill, who has a Pro Bowl campaign on his resume. Christian Darrisaw is coming along well at left tackle, too.

Though Penix isn’t as mobile as the other top quarterback prospects, he could still be effective in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. O’Connell has fielded top-six passing offenses in yards and touchdowns with Kirk Cousins, an athletically limited quarterback, as his primary starter for most of the last two seasons.

Penix’s ability to beat defenses from the pocket could serve him well with the Vikings’ offensive personnel group. Injury history aside, he could immediately challenge Sam Darnold for the starting job and win the competition.

What If the Bills Acquire Pick No. 16 to Draft Brian Thomas Jr.?4 of 6

Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills created a clear void in their offense after they traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins could be solid complementary wideouts, but Buffalo needs a go-to pass-catcher to maintain its top-10 aerial attack.

Before the Bills acquired Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings in 2020, quarterback Josh Allen completed about 56 percent of his passes and threw for 30 touchdowns and 21 interceptions through his first two seasons. With Diggs, Allen saw a significant spike in his passing production and put together a pair of Pro Bowl campaigns.

The Bills shouldn’t try to prove that Allen can throw for 4,200-plus yards without a high-level receiver. Because they’re limited in cap space, don’t expect them to make a deal for a high-priced veteran wideout.

On The Pat McAfee Show, Bills general manager Brandon Beane admitted that he gets “antsy” and talked about his tendency to trade up rather than move down. This year, Beane may have to be more aggressive with his trade offers because wide receivers have become a premium position in recent years, and Buffalo has the 28th pick.

The Bills may be able to work out a trade with the Seattle Seahawks, who have a history of trading down under general manager John Schneider. Since the Seahawks don’t have a second-round pick, Schneider may revert to his old tendencies.

Buffalo would have to give up a lot to be in range for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, but it may be able to land Brian Thomas Jr. in the middle of the first round.

The Bills should look to jump ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20), who need a wideout after trading Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, and the Cincinnati Bengals (No. 18), who may find a long-term replacement for franchise-tagged wide receiver Tee Higgins.

At 6’3″ and 209 pounds, Thomas isn’t just a big-bodied target. He ran a 4.33-second 40-yard time at the NFL Scouting Combine. The LSU product can be effective on the outside and in the slot similar to Diggs, which makes him an ideal schematic replacement.

B/R scouts ranked Thomas fourth among wide receivers and 18th overall, which suggests that he has the potential to be an instant playmaker in the NFL.

What If the Broncos Draft DB Cooper Dejean as the First Cornerback Off the Board?5 of 6

Defensive back Cooper DeJeanZach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Even if the Minnesota Vikings pass on a quarterback at No. 11, the Denver Broncos might prefer a top defensive prospect rather than the fourth- or fifth-best quarterback at No. 12.

While some Broncos fans may cringe at the idea of taking a defensive back over a quarterback or an edge-rusher in this spot, the team sent defensive backs coach and pass game coordinator Jim Leonhard to Cooper DeJean’s pro day.

According to ESPN’s Field Yates, multiple teams see DeJean as a safety rather than a cornerback.

“I think there’s a chance that a lot of teams—as a matter of fact, many teams that I have spoken with continue to view him as a safety prospect,” Yates said on First Draft (7:10 mark).

Because of DeJean’s potential positional versatility, he can fill voids at cornerback and safety in Denver’s secondary. That would make this an intriguing match, especially if the Iowa product hears his name called before cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell.

Going into the offseason, the Broncos needed help at cornerback, and they haven’t addressed that issue. Denver also released safety Justin Simmons.

Assuming DeJean makes a full recovery from a broken fibula, Denver may see him as a do-it-all chess piece for its defense, which ranked 27th and 29th in scoring and total yards last season, respectively.

What If the Raiders Trade Back into the First Round for QB Bo Nix?6 of 6

Quarterback Bo NixKevin Sabitus/Getty Images

The Las Vegas Raiders have a developing young quarterback in Aidan O’Connell, and they signed experienced veteran signal-caller Gardner Minshew, who has 37 career starts. Yet according to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, the Raiders are being strongly linked to trade-up scenarios for a quarterback.

On the flip side, ESPN’s Jordan Reid believes the Raiders will take an offensive lineman or a cornerback with the 13th pick.

“Expect offensive line or cornerback at No. 13 overall. At Alabama’s pro day last month, Pierce seemed to be keeping a close eye on Terrion Arnold, who would give Vegas a shutdown corner on the outside. But sources with the team have also suggested to me that the Raiders could add another tackle to pair with Kolton Miller.”

What if Graziano and Reid are both right? Las Vegas could take an offensive tackle or cornerback with the 13th overall pick and attempt to trade back into the first round for a quarterback.

If our other projected scenarios play out, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. won’t be available at No. 13. That would leave Bo Nix as the only quarterback worthy of a late-first-round gamble.

The Raiders could get ahead of any team that plans to target Nix early in the second round, and they probably wouldn’t have to give up future first-round picks to get him in the late 20s.

After playing in Oregon’s West Coast offense, Nix seems like a schematic fit for offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who ran a variation of the West Coast offense with the Chicago Bears over the last two years. Oregon’s offense didn’t require Nix to routinely stretch the field, but he’s shown great accuracy while under pocket pressure, which is a trait that typically translates to the NFL.

With Nix’s accurate arm and mobility, the Raiders can be an efficient team in the short passing game and take some shots downfield on extended plays.

After Nix flamed out at Auburn under the pressure of playing in the SEC, he would have to handle the weight of a franchise trying to win its first playoff game since the 2002 campaign. That would add some spice to his career storyline in Las Vegas.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.