NBA Playoffs first round betting tips: The most important stat or trend for every series

After an exciting and action-packed Play-In Tournament, the 2024 NBA Playoffs officially begin this weekend. The bracket is locked in with eight teams locked in for each conference, and NBA Finals odds have been updated. Let the games — and the betting picks, player props, and series-long prop bets — begin! 

Many NBA and betting analysts believe this postseason will feature a lot of chalk, meaning the higher-seeded teams will likely advance early and often. We’re not interested in such baseless theories or blind faith in teams that finished with better regular-season records. We base our picks and wagers on recent stats, betting trends, and historic data.

MORE NBA PLAYOFFS: Updated bracket | Finals odds

That’s why we have pinpointed one key stat or betting trend for each of the eight first-round matchups in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. We’ll explain why each bit of information reveals a key advantage for every team we’re picking to advance, helping you find an edge on the series and player prop market ahead of this weekend’s action.

Here’s our one key stat or trend for each of the eight opening-round matchups in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Good luck, have fun, and go make some money!

NBA Playoffs betting advice: One key stat or trend for each first-round series

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

Celtics (No. 1) vs. Bulls/Heat (No. 8): 

The Celtics went an incredible 37-4 at home this season, a remarkable feat in a season that enjoyed solid parity. Boston locking up the No. 1 seed in the East weeks before the regular season concluded also afforded Joe Mazzulla the freedom to rotate rest among his stars leading up to the postseason. 

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and company have been the odds-on favorites to win the NBA Finals since GM Brad Stevens landed Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. They’re overwhelming favorites to advance to the second round, and history tells us that they will win their opening-round series by 3-4 games. 

Over the past 40 years, 20 NBA teams have lost four games or fewer at home in a regular season. Take a look at how the 19 other squads fared in the first round of the playoffs after mounting their historic home records that year:

Team
Home

Record
1st round

outcome
2015-16 Spurs
40-1
4-0 sweep
1985-86 Celtics
40-1
3-0 sweep
2015-16 Warriors
39-2
4-1 win
2014-15 Warriors
39-2
4-0 sweep
2008-09 Cavaliers
39-2
4-0 sweep
1996-97 Bulls
39-2
3-0 sweep
1995-96 Bulls
39-2
3-0 sweep
1994-95 Magic
39-2
3-1 win
1986-87 Celtics
39-2
3-0 sweep
2012-13 Nuggets
38-3
4-2 loss
2004-05 Spurs
38-3
4-1 win
1996-97 Jazz
38-3
3-0 sweep
1995-96 Sonics
38-3
3-1 win
2012-13 Heat
37-4
4-0 sweep
1986-87 Lakers
37-4
3-0 sweep
1988-89 Pistons
37-4
3-0 sweep
1989-90 Lakers
37-4
3-1 win
1993-94 Sonics
37-4
3-2 loss
1997-98 Bulls
37-4
3-0 sweep
2023-24 Celtics
37-4
TBD
Amazing! The teams with the best home records of all time have dominated their first-round playoff matchups in that same season, winning by a series sweep or gentleman’s sweep in 17 of the 19 instances. The collective first-round record of the best home squads since 1985: 64-9.

Long story short, history is on Boston’s side. We believe this trend will continue and the Celtics will win their opening-round series 4-0 or 4-1. Thus, Boston’s -2.5 series spread is a best bet whether it faces Miami or Chicago in the opening round (the Celtics swept both this season). 

We also love the Green’s chances of winning the Eastern Conference Finals (-200), as 14 of these teams made it to the championship round that year and the East is as banged-up this year as we have maybe ever seen it in the postseason. 

MORE: A look at every Celtics All-Star throughout NBA history

Thunder (No. 1) vs. Kings/Pelicans (No. 8)

The Thunder have been one of the more dominant teams in the NBA this season, finishing 57-25 on the season and 33-8 at home. They also went 36-16 in conference games. Now OKC gets to play either the Kings without Malik Monk or the Pelicans without Zion Williamson.

Sacramento has gone 4-6 without Monk, the presumed Sixth Man of the Year, while the Pels got trounced 107-83 the last time they faced the Thunder with Zion sidelined. We won’t quite know the first-round odds for Mark Daigneault’s squad until we know its opponent, but we’re probably betting the Thunder to win by over 1.5 games whether its the Kings or the Pels. 

MORE: Thunder prove age is just a number

Knicks (No. 2) vs. 76ers (No. 7)

The Knicks have gone 20-3 with OG Anunoby active since they acquired the two-way star from the Raptors. New York has also gone 27-14 at home, while Philadelphia went just 23-30 against teams that made the Play-In or playoffs.

But the most important stat of them all: the Knicks beat the Sixers 3-1 in their regular-season series, and that was before Paul Reed ran his mouth about how Philly wanted to play the ‘easier’ first-round opponent in New York. Take the Knicks (-115) on the series moneyline, or go for the plus odds and bet them -1.5 on the series spread (+210).

MORE: Knicks-76ers series betting preview

Nuggets (No. 2) vs. Lakers (No. 7)

The Nuggets have defeated the LeBron James and Anthony Davis-led Lakers eight consecutive times since the start of the 2022-23 season and in 10 of their past 13 meetings dating back to Valentine’s Day 2021. They swept L.A. in the Western Conference Finals last season.

Denver — and more specifically Nikola Jokic — seem to be LeBron’s modern-day Kryptonite. What’s worse, the Nugs went 33-8 at Ball Arena this season, while L.A. went just 19-21 on the road. Back the Nuggets -1.5 in the series spread (-175). 

MORE: Nuggets-Lakers series betting preview

Bucks (No. 3) vs. Pacers (No. 6)

Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo active, the Bucks allowed a whopping 64 points in the paint to the Pacers over their past four meetings. That’s been Indiana’s secret to success over Milwaukee all season, and we don’t think Doc Rivers’ Bucks will suddenly blow the doors off the Pacers in the playoffs, especially with Giannis missing the first couple games.

We do have Milwaukee ultimately winning the series thanks to hot shooting and home-court advantage, but we would strongly advise betting the series to go OVER 5.5 total games (-225). It’s a lot of juice, but it’s also a tremendous bet as there’s no way either of these teams suffer a gentleman’s sweep. 

MORE: How Giannis injury impacts Bucks-Paceers betting odds

Wolves (No. 3) vs. Suns (No. 6)

The Suns swept the Wolves 3-0 in the regular season, with Phoenix holding Anthony Edwards to under 14 points per game in the process. That’s fewer points than the Suns’ average margin of victory over Minnesota on the season!

We completely understand why Frank Vogel’s squad has been made the betting favorite to win this series. Spread the floor, hit shots, and contain Ant-man, and you’re getting past the Wolves. We’re backing the Suns (-120) to advance. 

MORE: Suns-Wolves series betting preview

Magic (No. 4) vs. Cavaliers (No. 5)

The Magic forced an average of 15 turnovers per game this season, third-best in the NBA. The Cavaliers went 12-11 when turning the ball over 15-plus times. They have also lost five straight contests and six of their last eight games to playoff squads when committing that many turnovers. 

The season series between these squads was relatively even. They split the series 2-2 with Orlando averaging 107.5 points per game and Cleveland averaging 112.5. We’re leaning toward Cleveland to eke out the series, but we like it to take all seven games to determine the winner. Bet the OVER of 6.5 games (+225) and root for this one to be the knock-down, drag-out we expect it to be. 

Clippers (No. 4) vs. Mavericks (No. 5)

The magic number for this series is 7-7. And no, we’re not talking about a 7-Up with Seagram’s Seven like my great aunt used to drink. Dating back to the start of the 2020-21 season, the Clippers and Mavericks have gone 7-7 head-to-head in the regular season.

MORE: Clippers-Mavericks series betting preview

Los Angeles has also gone 7-7 this season without Kawhi Leonard, whose status remains murky with a knee injury. With how well the Mavericks have been playing of late — winning 13 of their past 15 competitive games before resting their starters in the last two games of the season — we like this star-studded 4-5 series to go OVER 6.5 games (+240).