New Data Shows That X is Losing Users in the US and UK
Despite Elon Muskâs claims that X is reaching new record highs in usage every other month, and that the app remains a critical connector, the latest data shows that Elonâs X project is losing user interest, sparked, in many cases, by Muskâs own divisive commentary in the app. Â
According to new insights, X has seen a significant decline in users in both the U.S. and U.K. in recent months, as Musk has continued to double down on his political stances.
Last month, amid reports of race-based riots in the U.K., Musk posted that âcivil war is inevitableâ in the region, which has seemingly sparked an exodus of U.K. users from the app.
As reported by FT:
âData from Similarweb shows active daily users in the UK have dropped from 8mn a year ago to only around 5.6mn now, with more than a third of that fall coming since the summer riots. The same thing is happening elsewhere, and not just in places where the platform has been banned, such as Brazil. Over the same 16-month period, Xâs active users in the US have fallen by about a fifth.â
That also aligns with Xâs own reporting on its EU user base.
As part of its EU reporting obligations, X needs to provide regular updates on its EU user base, and how many active users itâs serving in the region. In its most recent report, covering the first six months of 2024, X reported a 5% decline in EU users.
So X is losing users in its key markets, and itâs still banned in Brazil, where it also has another 20 million users (though that may be lifted this week). So why does Elon keep saying that X is trending up?
Well, a lot of that is selective reporting.
For example, Elon has repeatedly claimed that X has become the number one news app in several regions. But thatâs not true, X/Twitter has been the number one news app in virtually every region since 2016, when Twitter changed the appâs classification from âsocial mediaâ to ânewsâ.
Thatâs because most actual news apps have far fewer users comparatively. And because X is a social media app, with (at last report) 250 million daily active users, it ranks better than them, but itâs not a news app, and shouldnât be classified as such. In fact, it canât be listed as a news app on the Google Play Store because itâs reliant on UGC.
But either way, the claim that X has suddenly risen to become the number one news app, in any region, is blatantly false.
Elon is now relying on âuser secondsâ as a key metro to measure Xâs performance.
???? usage hit another all-time high yesterday with 417 billion user-seconds globally!
In the US, user-seconds reached 93B, 23% higher than the previous record of 76B.
In a single day.
â Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 15, 2024
But as weâve reported previously, most of these claims also donât stack up, with X reporting higher usage stats in other measures. I suspect that Xâs âactive secondsâ is only measuring this since the change to X, and not all-time for Twitter as well. But essentially, the numbers donât really mean much when X is changing the parameters of its reporting.
And again, every third party measurement provider has reported that X is seeing a decline in users. It seems very unlikely that X is actually outperforming their analysis, while the companyâs revenue is also in decline.
On balance, itâs fairly safe to assume that Elonâs X project is failing, while additions like its Grok AI chatbot havenât done much to curb the decline. My assumption would be that X will have to confront its longer term viability at some point, and that could be the end of the entire X project.
Though I also suspect that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election will have something to do with this. If Trump loses, Elon also loses big time, after lumping all of his hopes onto a Trump victory. Trumpâs re-election would give Musk a direct, influential link to the White House, and a means to re-angle policies to benefit his companies, particularly SpaceX, which is often hamstrung by Government regulation. Â
That could also benefit X, and Musk other projects, whereas a Harris win would erase all of these potential gains.
If Trump doesnât win, I suspect Elon will have to go back to the drawing board on some of his initiatives, and X, based on its performance, may end up being shut down or sold off as a result.
Essentially, Elonâs betting on his own popularity to influence the election, which heâs seeking to do directly via X. But if that fails, I donât think that app holds the same value to him anymore.
