Newcastle United back four are not to blame for number of goals conceded – The proof
A lot of talk about the Newcastle United back four recently.
Even more so after the Chelsea match on Monday and another three goals scored by the opposition.
I see a lot of journalists, pundits and fans posing the questions of why are the Newcastle United back four conceding so many goals.
This is my take on it.
It isn’t the Newcastle United back four to blame for so many goals leaked.
Let me explain.
It is the fault of the whole NUFC team and in particular the Newcastle United back five! Not back four.
You can dress this up any way you like but the statistics are truly staggering.
Newcastle United goals conceded in the Premier League since Nick Pope arrived at St James’ Park in summer 2022:
With Nick Pope starting – Played 51 Goals Conceded 46
At an average of 0.90 goals per game
Without Nick Pope starting – Played 15 Goals Conceded 35
At an average of 2.33 goals per game
As I say, it is startling the difference.
This 2023/24 season, Nick Pope conceded 14 goals in 14 Premier League starts, in the other 14 where Pope hasn’t started, there have been 34 goals conceded.
I hear you saying, the goalkeeper isn’t the only factor.
However… losing Nick Pope has been massively the biggest factor, in why suddenly the ‘Newcastle United back four’ are conceding loads of goals.
It is the elephant in the room for so many journalists, pundits and indeed those Newcastle fans who want to go so over the top about Eddie Howe, certain other individual NUFC players, the ‘back four’ especially, as well as the team as a whole.
They don’t want to even mention, never mind accept, that losing Nick Pope to injury has been THE absolute nightmare for Eddie Howe and Newcastle United.
As of course that then massively limits them in the vitriol with which they attack Eddie Howe and many of his players.
I’m sure Eddie Howe never expected in a million years just how bad Martin Dubravka (Loris Karius an even weaker alternative sadly) would prove to be in Nick Pope’s absence, however, I think he for sure he did still know it would be a serious drop off from the quality of Pope.
I think the biggest problem hasn’t been so much Martin Dubravka changing, though he has declined.
More a case of Newcastle United having changed.
Dubravka arrived in February 2018 and for over four years was pretty much always the first choice keeper in that time.
He did a very decent job as well.
However, you have to dig deeper.
Martin Dubravka came in and played in a set-up based on a solid defence under Rafa Benitez.
Under Steve Bruce United became even more defensive, the defence very deep and often the midfield pretty much standing on their toes.
Eddie Howe arrived and saved us from what had looked certain relegation.
The second half results of that 2021/22 season were stunning, only Man City and Liverpool picking up more points than Newcastle United in the final 19 PL games.
However, realistic and pragmatic Eddie Howe, decided that a hard working solid side built on a tight defence, then hitting the opposition on the break, would be the platform to safety. As the season wore on and safety reached, Howe did loosen the shackles a bit, but in the main that was his strategy.
The results were transformative with a hard working side where Chris Wood led the defence from the front. He scored only two goals but Newcastle picked up 29 points in his 15 PL starts that season.
In that second half (19 games) of the season with the third best form in the Premier League, Newcastle only scored 25 goals but conceded even less, only 20 (they had conceded 42 goals in the opening 19 PL matches that season).
Eddie Howe though knew this was only a short-term strategy and that for Newcastle United to progress, they had to become a more attacking, threatening, front foot team and for that, they needed a new first choice goalkeeper.
At £10m from a then relegated Burnley, England keeper Nick Pope surely one of the bargains of all time.
Martin Dubravka took this very badly and chose to go to Man U on loan, to sit on their bench instead.
Any Newcastle fans who thought what on earth is Eddie Howe doing replacing a perfectly decent first choice keeper? Found that swiftly answered watching Nick Pope from August 2022 onwards. An outstanding very highest quality keeper, who was arguably the key player when it came to the fourth place finish of last season AND Newcastle doing very nicely this season in all competitions, despite an ever worsening injury situation.
Now to me there is no doubt that Nick Pope is significantly better in pretty much every aspect compared to Martin Dubravka, when it comes to keeping the ball out of the net. Better positioning, better on crosses, better on making saves and so on.
However, I think that one area in particular where he excels, has especially undermined and affected the rest of the defence and indeed team, since Martin Dubravka came in.
For Eddie Howe to get a better attacking front foot set up, he needed like the other top teams, to have his defence pushing up towards the halfway line. To do that successfully, a key component is a goalkeeper who is very good at sweeping behind his defence. A keeper who is quick enough and brave enough to come out and help his defenders, when the ball is played behind them and through them.
Nick Pope is that goalkeeper. Martin Dubravka is most certainly not.
I don’t think the Man U thing helped him and I think it has affected him negatively as a keeper but this thing of now terrified totally to leave his line, leave his box, has been a disaster for the NUFC back four and the whole team, since Nick Pope got injured.
In those first four and a half years as a Newcastle United goalkeeper, Dubravka never had to do this. No idea whether he was any good / confident at sweeping behind a defence before arriving at NUFC, but certainly, he isn’t these days. The Newcastle defence never really strayed from the edge of our penalty area, so there was no space for other teams to potentially exploit.
Now though, with Newcastle United having the players they do, this is how we have to play. Sitting back very defensively would just encourage the opposition teams to attack us even more.
Some of you may say a problem is that Newcastle’s defenders aren’t quick enough when the ball is played in behind them but that is true of pretty much every set of central defenders at any Premier League club. In a straight race you would expect the vast majority of attacking players to be quicker than the centre-backs.
So when a ball is played in behind / over the top of the defence, you absolutely need the goalkeeper helping the defence out.
For me, Dubravka’s shortcomings and in particular his dread of leaving his line / penalty area, have impacted hugely, both in the way we are able to play and in terms of number of goal conceded.
Nick Pope would have prevented many of these goals even having become chances, due to sweeping behind his defence, He would have had better positioning to prevent a fair few more and make the saves easier, whilst there is simply no chance he would have allowed goals like that embarrassing opener at Chelsea.
We have to make the best of it this season and just hope Nick Pope can return ASAP.
What I can tell you for sure though, is that there is absolutely zero chance that Martin Dubravka will still be number two at Newcastle United next season.
