Newcastle United risk a blip turning into a failed assault on the elite

Claiming fourth place and Champions League football was always on the cards for Newcastle after their takeover in 2021, but it perhaps came around faster than even they were ready for.

As thrilling as that was for them at the time, it has left them in danger of looking like they are heading in the wrong direction unless they are able to go again this season.

The risk is that if Newcastle don’t regain some momentum and at least challenge more convincingly for the top four, the lustre of their potential could quickly fade – without the ability to lean on the name value that a Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United or Chelsea have still carried to some extent (rightly or wrongly) through tougher times.

A project is only enticing to players if it feels like it is going to plan. Last season’s drop from fourth to seventh may be seen as a forgivable blip, the result of having had to balance their domestic commitments with Champions League football for the first time in 20 years. But how long can a blip last before it’s the norm?

Money still talks, of course, but as Eddie Howe has bitterly complained, PSR renders it less powerful than it was when Manchester City set about executing the kind of transformation Newcastle’s owners would surely like to oversee.

As with Aston Villa, their revenues are some way adrift of those raked in by the more established Big Six, coming in at £250m in 2022/23. Without any European football this season, they can probably expect to be in roughly the same ballpark again.

Even the most well-paid players can only extend their patience so far, and if Newcastle don’t push on again – or aren’t given some other reason to believe that their trajectory is all going to be upwards from here – it will only be a matter of time before the likes of Sven Botman, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon start to wonder if they are on a hiding to nothing. Gordon has already seemingly had his head turned by Liverpool.

Even the big-name clubs are not immune. It happened with Fernando Torres and almost even Steven Gerrard at Liverpool, with Robin van Persie at Arsenal, with Harry Kane at Tottenham.

Appointing managers purely on the basis of name value is a daft endeavour that only ends in tears – ask Aston Villa, Chelsea and Tottenham how Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Jose Mourinho worked out for them – but if Howe does depart for the England job, or gets the boot during the campaign, we can’t help but feel it may be an opportunity for Newcastle to appoint a more enticing manager who players could get genuinely exciting about working under.

If Howe does well again, problem solved: we’re not altogether writing him off as a liability having already taken them to fourth once. Their faith in the gaffer may prove to be well-founded.

But if the new season does not start well, Newcastle must be ready to respond decisively; they have too much to lose not to act.

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