NFL Playoff Picture 2023-24: AFC, NFC Clinching and Elimination Scenarios for Week 17

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The NFL playoff picture is, in a word, messy.

But it should look much clearer by Sunday night.

With just two weeks of games remaining, only four teams have been eliminated in each of the conferences. Even the 6-9 Chicago Bears have a mathematical chance at the postseason in the NFC, while four teams with an 8-7 record and two teams with a 7-8 record are battling for the final spot in the AFC.

Michael Signora @NFLfootballinfo24 teams are still in contention for a trip to the Super Bowl, which ties for the most with two weeks remaining in 20 years, since a record 26 in 2004.

That naturally sets the stage for some squads to see their Super Bowl dreams end in a busy Week 17 that will ring in 2023 with a Saturday game and 14 New Year’s Eve games on Sunday.

With that in mind, here is a look at the current postseason picture and the NFL’s latest clinching and elimination scenarios heading into the penultimate slate of games.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC

Baltimore Ravens (12-3)Miami Dolphins (11-4)Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7, tiebreaker over Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans)Cleveland Browns (10-5)Buffalo Bills (9-6)Indianapolis Colts (8-7, tiebreaker over Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals)NFC

San Francisco 49ers (11-4, tiebreaker over Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions)Philadelphia Eagles (11-4, tiebreaker over Detroit Lions)Detroit Lions (11-4)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)Dallas Cowboys (10-5)Los Angeles Rams (8-7, tiebreaker over Seattle Seahawks)Seattle Seahawks (8-7)Clinching and Elimination Scenarios

Brian McCarthy @NFLprguyIt’s still the most wonderful time of the year. Playoff scenarios entering Week 17 via @NFL345 pic.twitter.com/ncdI1y3wgs

Week 17’s Key Games in Playoff Race

While much of the focus in the AFC will be on the crowded wild-card race, the top of the NFC’s standings became much more interesting Monday when the San Francisco 49ers saw their six-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens.

As a result, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions are tied for the No. 1 seed and the all-important first-round bye that comes with it. They will both need San Francisco to lose one of its final two games because of tiebreaker scenarios, but that seems much more feasible after Lamar Jackson and Co. won with relative ease in a potential Super Bowl preview.

NFL @NFLWhat a response from the @Eagles 🦅

📺: #NYGvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/2Mgsj0ajbL pic.twitter.com/JGTFgXEaqD

Still, the Eagles and Lions might be waiting until Week 18 for a chance to jump into the No. 1 seed.

After all, the 49ers play the 4-11 Washington Commanders in Week 17 in an ideally timed bounceback game. Their final game against the Los Angeles Rams figures to be much more difficult, meaning the pressure is on Philadelphia and Detroit to keep pace.

The Eagles should be able to do just that with a home matchup against the 3-12 Arizona Cardinals. They also finish against the New York Giants and should be ready to seize the No. 1 seed with just one 49ers slip.

Things are far more difficult for the Lions, who hit the road to face the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday in a game with significant implications for both. Dallas fell behind the Eagles in the NFC East race thanks to two straight road losses to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, but some home cooking against a fellow NFC playoff contender may be just what it needs.

That could be the game of the week considering what’s at stake for both and the overall talent that will be on the field as the Cowboys look to remain undefeated at home against a Lions squad that is 6-2 on the road.

Elsewhere in the NFC, the 7-8 New Orleans Saints and 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers face each other in a game that will go a long way toward determining the NFC South and whether anyone in the division will finish with a winning record.

The top of the AFC standings will also be under the spotlight with a head-to-head showdown between the Ravens and Dolphins. Baltimore will clinch the No. 1 seed, which would also make quite the statement after it just defeated the 49ers in Week 16.

NFL @NFLLamar is one of one 🔥

📺: #BALvsSF on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pkwa8SXokx pic.twitter.com/dwXCrtm8fV

The loser of that game will likely land the No. 2 seed and be lined up against whichever team emerges from the jumbled race for the final AFC wild-card spot.

Perhaps no Week 17 game will have more of an impact on that race than the one between the Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders. Indianapolis is currently in seventh thanks to various tiebreakers, but a loss would open the door to everyone else and make the 7-8 Raiders a factor in the season’s final week.

The 7-8 Denver Broncos also need a win to be Week 18 factors and will face the Los Angeles Chargers at home. That looks like it should be a straightforward victory, but so did their Week 16 home games against the New England Patriots before the 4-11 AFC East team pulled off the upset.

Of the other 8-7 teams chasing the Colts, the Houston Texans have the most favorable matchup at home against the 5-10 Tennessee Titans.

The Cincinnati Bengals have to hit the road to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to play the 8-7 Seattle Seahawks, who are also fighting for playoff positioning in the NFC.