NFL Week 17 playoff and elimination scenarios

The final NFL week of the 2023 calendar year started on Thursday night, with a game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets that had playoff implications for Joe Flacco and not Aaron Rodgers.

Imagine reading that sentence back in August.

But thanks to their 37-20 win over the Jets on Thursday Night Football, the Browns are back in the playoffs.

Here are the teams that can join them, as well as the Jets in the ranks of the eliminated, this weekend.

NFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
Four teams — the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys, the Detroit Lions, and the Philadelphia Eagles — have clinched already.

Three other teams can clinch spots this weekend, and there is even a narrow path where the entire field is filled out by the end of Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

That’s right, the Fightin’ Baker Mayfields can lock down the NFC South — and therefore a playoff spot — this weekend. Their cleanest path? A win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday and Tampa Bay is in. However, they can also get in if that game ends in a tie, provided the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks can also grab a playoff spot this weekend, but the path is not as clean for them. They are in the postseason if they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the game between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night ends in a tie.

Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams can also secure a playoff spot this weekend. The cleanest path for the Rams is a win over the New York Giants, and a Seahawks loss to the Steelers.

However, if the Rams beat the Giants, and the Packers-Vikings game ends in a tie, the Rams are in. Which means that if the Rams beat the Giants, the Seahawks beat the Steelers, and the Packers-Vikings game ends in a tie, both the Seahawks and the Rams are in.

Couple that with a Buccaneers win over the Saints (or a Buccaneers tie and a Falcons loss) and the entire field would be filled.

Seeding and division scenarios
Now that the regular season is nearly over, we can focus on some seeding and division scenarios.

San Francisco 49ers

Despite their loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night, the 49ers are still in the driver’s seat when it comes to the first-round bye in the NFC. They can clinch that with:

A win over the Washington Commanders, a Philadelphia Eagles loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and a Detroit Lions loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night.
If those results go their way, they will have the top spot clinched.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles can lock up the NFC East this weekend, becoming the first team in the division to win back-to-back titles since Philadelphia did it in 2004. They have two different path:

An Eagles win and a Cowboys loss or tie to the Detroit Lions, OR
An Eagles tie and a Cowboys loss

Elimination scenarios
When it comes to the elimination scenarios, we are focusing on simple playoff elimination scenarios. If you are interested in how various teams can be eliminated from division title contention, or seeding spots, you can visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.

Five teams are facing elimination from the playoffs this weekend.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta enters Week 17 with a slim chance at staying alive, and can even be eliminated if they win this weekend. The Falcons can be eliminated from playoff contention with:

A loss to the Chicago Bears and a Buccaneers win or tie against the Saints, OR
A tie with the Bears, a Buccaneers win, a Rams tie against the Giants and a Seahawks win or tie against the Steelers, OR
A tie with the Bears, a Buccaneers win, a Rams win, and a Seahawks tie, OR
A Buccaneers win, a Rams win, and a Seahawks win.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints can be eliminated from playoff contention with:

A loss to the Buccaneers, OR
A tie with the Buccaneers, a Seahawks win or tie, and a Rams win or tie

Chicago Bears

The Bears still have a slim shot at the playoffs, but can be eliminated a few different ways. The Bears are eliminated with:

A loss to the Falcons, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Rams win or tie, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Packers win against the Vikings, OR
A Seahawks win or tie and a Vikings win against the Packers, OR
A Rams win or tie and a Packers win, OR
A Rams win or tie and a Vikings win.

As you can see, their odds at staying alive past Sunday are slim.

Minnesota Vikings

If the Vikings win on Sunday night, they stay alive. However, a loss or a tie against the Packers opens the door to elimination, provided other results earlier in the day have gone against them. The Vikings can be eliminated with:

A loss to the Packers, a Seahawks win or tie, and a Rams win or tie, OR
A loss to the Packers, a Seahawks win or tie, a Buccaneers tie, and a Falcons win, OR
A loss to the Packers, a Rams win or tie, a Buccaneers tie, and a Falcons win, OR
A tie with the Packers, a Seahawks win, and a Rams win

Green Bay Packers

Along similar lines, the Packers keep their playoff hopes alive with a win against the Vikings. A loss or a tie, however, opens the door to elimination. Here is how Green Bay can be eliminated this weekend.

A loss to the Vikings and a Seahawks win or tie, OR
A loss to the Vikings and a Rams win or tie, OR
A loss to the Vikings, a Buccaneers tie, and a Falcons win, OR
A tie with the Vikings, a Rams win, and a Seahawks win.

There is also a way the Packers can be eliminated with a loss to the Vikings, a Saints win, a Falcons win, and a combination of wins from other teams. For more on that scenario, visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.

Eliminated teams
The Washington Commanders, the Carolina Panthers, the New York Giants, and the Arizona Cardinals have already been eliminated.

AFC
Playoff-clinching scenarios
Over in the AFC two teams — the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins — have punched their playoff tickets already. Here is how four different teams can join them.

Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, things are certainly shaky in Kansas City right now, but the Chiefs can still lock up the AFC West (and a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend) in Week 17. Kansas City clinches the West with:

A win or tie against the Cincinnati Bengals, OR
A Raiders loss or tie against the Indianapolis Colts and a Broncos loss or tie against the Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars

They have lost four-straight games. Trevor Lawrence is hurt. And my dear friend JP Acosta is reeling.

However, the Jaguars can still clinch the AFC South this weekend, giving themselves a home playoff game for the second-straight season. The first step? They will need to break their losing streak with a win to do that.

Thankfully the Carolina Panthers are coming to town.

Beat the Panthers, and the Jaguars clinch with:

A Colts loss to the Raiders and a Texans loss to the Titans
Cleveland Browns

With their 37-20 win over the Jets, the Browns have clinched a playoff spot. They are still alive in the AFC North, but a Ravens win or tie against the Dolphins would see Baltimore clinch the division.

Buffalo Bills

A few weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills seemed on the brink of a lost season. However, Josh Allen and company have a number of ways they can lock down a playoff spot in Week 17. However, they cannot do it with a win over the New England Patriots alone, they will still need some help. Beat the Patriots, and the Bills are in with:

A Steelers loss or tie to Seattle and a Bengals loss or tie to the Chiefs, OR
A Steelers loss or tie and a Jaguars loss or tie to the Panthers, OR
A Steelers loss or tie, a Texans loss or tie, and a Colts loss or tie, OR
A Bengals loss or tie and a Jaguars loss or tie, OR
A Bengals loss or tie, a Texans loss or tie, and a Colts loss or tie

There are also nine different ways the Bills can clinch with a tie. Should Bills-Patriots end in a tie, Buffalo is in the playoffs with:

A Steelers loss, a Bengals loss, and a Jaguars loss, OR
A Steelers loss, a Bengals loss, and a Texans loss or tie, OR
A Steelers loss, a Bengals loss, and a Colts loss or tie, OR
A Steelers loss, a Jaguars loss, and a Texans loss or tie, OR
A Steelers loss, a Jaguars loss, and a Colts loss or tie, OR
A Steelers loss, a Texans loss, and a Colts loss, OR
A Bengals loss, a Jaguars loss, and a Texans loss or tie, OR
A Bengals loss, a Jaguars loss, and a Colts loss or tie, OR
A Bengals loss, a Texans loss, and a Colts loss
A Steelers loss, a Bengals

Seeding and division scenarios
As noted above, both the Chiefs and the Jaguars can clinch their respective divisions this weekend.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot, but they claim the AFC East with either a win or tie against the Ravens, or a Bills loss or tie against the Patriots.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens can close out 2023 in fashion, as they can clinch the AFC North, as well as home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, this weekend.

They clinch the division with a win or tie against the Dolphins, or a Browns loss or tie against the Jets on Thursday night.

They clinch home-field advantage with a win over the Dolphins.

Elimination scenarios
As noted above, we are focusing on straight playoff elimination, and not on seeding. Again, if you want to dive into more scenarios we highly recommend NFL Playoff Scenarios. There you can learn how various teams such as the Bills and the Browns can be eliminated in their respective divisions, as well as how numerous teams can be eliminated from the top-overall seed.

Pittsburgh Steelers

With their win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Steelers kept their slim playoff hopes alive. Here is how those hopes can be dashed this weekend:

A loss to the Seahawks, a Bills win or tie against the Patriots, a Colts win against the Raiders, a Texans win against the Titans, and a Broncos win or tie against the Chargers, OR
A loss to the Seahawks, a Bills win or tie, a Colts win, a Texans win, a Jaguars loss to the Panthers, and a Chiefs win or tie against the Bengals, OR
A loss to the Seahawks, a Bills win or tie, a Colts win or tie, a Jaguars win, and a Broncos win or tie

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati can be eliminated with: A loss to the Chiefs, a Steelers win, and a Bills win or tie.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are expected to have C.J. Stroud back this weekend, and they might need him to stave off elimination. Houston is eliminated with:

A loss to the Titans, a Colts win, a Jaguars win, and a Bills win or tie, OR
A loss to the Titans, a Colts win, a Jaguars win, a Bengals win, a Steelers loss or tie, and a Broncos loss or tie

Las Vegas Raiders

With their surprising win over the Chiefs on Christmas Day, Antonio Pierce and company kept their playoff hopes alive. However, they are eliminated this weekend with:

A loss to the Colts, OR
A tie with the Colts and a Jaguars win, OR
A tie with the Colts and a Steelers win, OR
A tie with the Colts and a Bengals win

There are also five additional scenarios where a tie with the Colts could lead to elimination depending on various combinations of wins or losses. For more on those more complicated scenarios, please visit NFL Playoff Scenarios.

Denver Broncos

Newly-minted starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham steps into the starting lineup hoping to keep the Broncos’ slim hopes alive. However, they can be eliminated regardless of how they fare against the Chargers, as the Broncos no longer control their own destiny. Denver is eliminated with:

A loss to the Chargers, OR
A tie and a Jaguars win or tie, OR
A tie, a Colts win or tie, and a Texans win or tie, OR
A tie and a Steelers win or tie, OR
A tie and a Bengals win, OR
A Chiefs win or tie, a Bills win or tie, and a Steelers win, OR
A Chiefs win or tie, a Bills win or tie, a Texans win, a Colts win, and a Jaguars win or tie, OR
A Chiefs win or tie, a Texans win, a Colts win, a Jaguars win or tie, and a Steelers win

Eliminated teams
The New England Patriots, the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Tennessee Titans have all been eliminated.