NFL Week 18 Takeaways: Updated Playoff Picture, Top Storylines from Saturday’s Games
NFL Week 18 Takeaways: Updated Playoff Picture, Top Storylines from Saturday’s Games0 of 6
Steelers QB Mason RudolphRob Carr/Getty Images
The NFL did fans a favor by providing two playoff-relevant games on the final Saturday of the regular season.
The day opened with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. While the Ravens had already locked up the AFC’s No. 1 seed and rested several starters, the Steelers needed a victory to stay in the wild-card hunt.
Pittsburgh got what it needed with a 17-10 road win against its most bitter division rival. The Steelers must now wait as other teams decide their playoff fate, and they await more injury information regarding arguably their most important player.
In the nightcap, the Houston Texans visited the Indianapolis Colts with a trip to the postseason on the line. The Texans got it done with a 23-19 victory and punched their ticket to the postseason. They’re also still in the mix for the AFC South title, an honor Houston will claim if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose on Sunday.
Indianapolis was eliminated with the loss.
Below, you’ll find our biggest takeaways for each team and what the early Week 18 results mean for the playoff picture.
AFC Playoff Picture1 of 6
Ravens QB Lamar JacksonMichael Owens/Getty Images
Division Leaders
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3*
2. Miami Dolphins 11-5*
3. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6*
4. Houston Texans 10-7*
Wild Card
5. Cleveland Browns 11-5*
6. Buffalo Bills 10-6
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
In the Hunt: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
Eliminated: Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans
* = clinched playoff berth
NFC Playoff Picture2 of 6
49ers QB Brock PurdyG Fiume/Getty Images
Division Leaders
1. San Francisco 49ers 12-4*
2. Dallas Cowboys 11-5*
3. Detroit Lions 11-5*
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8
Wild Card
5. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5*
6. Los Angeles Rams 9-7*
7. Green Bay Packers 8-8
In the Hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-8), New Orleans Saints (8-8), Minnesota Vikings (7-9), Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Eliminated: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Washington Commanders
* = clinched playoff berth
Pittsburgh Steelers Need Healthy T.J. Watt for Potential Postseason Run3 of 6
Steelers edge T.J. WattRob Carr/Getty Images
Pittsburgh’s victory may have come at a very significant cost. In the third quarter of what was another physical Ravens-Steelers clash, star pass-rusher T.J. Watt collided with teammate Montravius Adams.
Watt, who recorded his 18th and 19th sacks of the season on Saturday, walked off the field with assistance but was quickly ruled out with a knee injury. It’s believed to be a sprained MCL, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
If Watt’s injury causes him to miss time, it could be disastrous for the Steelers. If Pittsburgh reaches the postseason—which will require a loss by the Jacksonville Jaguars or Buffalo Bills—it may have to win with defense.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Steelers offense has found new life behind quarterback Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh’s veteran backup helped unlock wide receiver George Pickens and added some potency to the downfield passing game.
In wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks, the Steelers reached 30 points—the only times they’ve done so this season.
However, things were largely bottled up for Rudolph on Saturday. He did go 18-of-20 and connect with Diontae Johnson on a 71-yard scoring strike against busted coverage. However, Pickens never got involved and Rudolph finished with only 152 passing yards.
We largely saw the conservative offensive approach that Pittsburgh used early in the season with Kenny Pickett under center. While the plan worked against a Ravens team that sat multiple key players, the Steelers didn’t look like the same potentially dangerous postseason team we saw over the last two weeks.
The Steelers can win with their defense in the playoffs, but that will be much more of a challenge if Watt is unable to go.
Baltimore Ravens Defense Can Serve as a Postseason Safety Net4 of 6
Ravens DE Broderick WashingtonRob Carr/Getty Images
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is likely to be this year’s NFL MVP. He’s one of the most indefensible players at any position, he’s thrived under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s passing attack, and he’s made Baltimore a legitimate title contender, if not the outright Super Bowl favorite.
The Ravens rested Jackson on Saturday, along with wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. With that trio out of the game, Baltimore leaned on its top-ranked scoring defense to keep pace with Pittsburgh.
That defense was also missing starters like Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey, but it still did a terrific job of stymieing the Steelers offense. Kyle Van Noy, Trenton Simpson and Jadeveon Clowney recorded sacks, and the Ravens erased two first-half scoring opportunities by forcing fumbles.
The Steelers finished with only 290 yards of offense and went just 6-of-15 on third down.
Pittsburgh capitalized on a blown coverage to take the lead in the early fourth quarter, breaking a 7-7 deadlock. For most of the game, though the defense allowed Baltimore to compete, despite an underwhelming performance by Tyler Huntley and the offense. It’s fair to wonder how things would have unfolded with Hamilton and Humphrey in the lineup.
Sunday’s game serves as proof that the Ravens can’t be written off should Jackson or another key offensive player suffer an injury or have a mistake-filled outing—Jackson committed multiple turnovers in two of his three losses this year.
Potential playoff opponents will undoubtedly spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to limit Jackson. However, Baltimore is a complete team, and limiting Jackson simply might not be enough.
C.J. Stroud Passes Biggest Test Yet for Houston Texans5 of 6
Texans QB C.J. StroudAndy Lyons/Getty Images
The Texans needed rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to carry them on Saturday. With receivers Robert Woods and Naoh Brown inactive, the offense was short-handed. A run defense that had been stout for most of the season was gashed repeatedly by the Colts.
Indianapolis racked up 227 yards on the ground, by far the most Houston has allowed all season.
Mistakes? We saw plenty of them. Houston was flagged 11 times for 69 yards, and kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn missed his first extra point of the season.
The Texans defense got a critical stop with just over a minute remaining, but it came by the narrowest of margins.
In the biggest game of his pro career, Stroud shined brightly. He finished 20-of-26 for 264 yards and two touchdowns. He never appeared rattled by the big moments, and he hand-delivered Houston’s first playoff berth since the 2019 season.
The Texans, of course, have been trusting Stroud all year.
“He’s letting it go when it needs to be let go and puts the ball exactly where it needs to be,” offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said, per ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime. “It builds so much confidence for me as a playcaller and our relationship.”
Head coach DeMeco Ryans and his staff deserve a ton of credit for this year’s turnaround, but Stroud is perhaps the single biggest reason why Houston can make some noise in the postseason.
The 22-year-old may have only wrapped his first NFL regular season, but he’s already one of the most talented and trustworthy signal-callers we’ll see in the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts Are Going to Be a Very Interesting Team in 20246 of 6
Colts head coach Shane SteichenMichael Hickey/Getty Images
After winning only four games in 2022, the Colts weren’t widely expected to contend in 2023. However, Saturday’s game was a terrific example of just how quickly things have turned around under rookie head coach Shane Steichen.
In the final week of the season, Indianapolis was still alive for the AFC South title. While the Colts didn’t do enough to beat the now playoff-bound Texans, they went virtually play-for-play with the opposition in all phases.
A fourth-down drop by backup running back Tyler Goodson in the red zone late in the fourth quarter was the difference between a playoff berth and a promising season.
The fact that Indy got to this point with journeyman backup quarterback Gardner Minshew under center for most of the season—not to mention without standout running back Jonathan Taylor for stretches—is impressive.
With Taylor now under contract long-term and with talented dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson expected to be healthy by Week 1, the Colts will have a chance to build something special in 2024.
Indianapolis has several key players slated to hit the open market, including Grover Stewart, Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, and Kenny Moore II. However, the Colts also have $72.8 million in projected 2024 cap space. Retaining players like Pittman and Moss while improving areas like Indy’s 27th-ranked scoring defense through free agency and the draft is possible.
Indy also has all seven of its 2024 draft selections.
If the defense improves and Richardson gives the Colts a little more playmaking ability at quarterback, this might be a team poised to challenge the AFC’s elite.
*Cap information from Spotrac.
