Novo Nordisk triples Wegovy sales beyond US, yet future sales outlook falls

GLP-1s are driving Novo Nordisk’s growth

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The success of Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drugs is going global GLP-1 receptor agonists are taking the world by storm, with a recent study suggesting that the sector could reach double the worth of the market for Apple’s iPhone was in its first decade.

Such good fortune is affecting the companies which make them. Ozempic and Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk this week released its Q1 earnings, and it’s clear that GLP-1s are driving profits.

Sales for the pharmaceutical behemoth increased by 19% in Danish Kroner, and by 18% at constant exchange rates (CER), and operating profit increased by 22% in Danish Kroner and 20% at CER.

Europe and Canada saw a sales growth of 13% CER, compared to the US’s 17% and APAC’s 25%.

However, certain aspects of performance have fallen short of expectations.

Rapid growth continuesSales of GLP-1 products such as Wegovy continue to drive growth.

GLP-1s focused on obesity were a big part of the company’s growth, according to international operations EVP Maziar Mike Doustdar. While GLP-1s aimed at treating diabetes continue to grow, it was the obesity care products that saw the most dramatic growth.

Obesity care products grew by 40% (CER) in the US, and by 137% in non-US regions (66% in Europe and Canada). This is compared to a growth of diabetes-treating GLP-1s by 10% in the US, and 13% in the rest of the world.

Wegovy sales increased by 39% in the first three months of the year in the US, driven by increased volumes. Outside the US, sales of Wegovy increased by 392%.

Despite this drastic growth, the US market for both Novo Nordisk’s obesity care drugs and Novo Nordisk as a whole remains worth significantly more than all other markets in the world combined.

Looking longer term, scaling of obesity drugs have near-tripled the amount of patients reached by the company, which is the market leader in GLP-1s, having 62% of the market.

Announced tariffs will not affect Novo Nordisk, according to the company, whereas future tariffs have the potential to have a negative impact.

Why is GLP-1 penetration down?Nevertheless, not all is positive. Novo Nordisk has reduced its full-year outlook to 13-21% at CER (it had been projected at 16% to 24% at the end of 2024), due to lower than planned branded GLP-1 penetration.

This is because of the rapid expansion of ‘compounding’ in the US, which is when custom versions of GLP-1 drugs are created by combining existing variants. The company is working to reduce this, expanding coverage for Wegovy and partnering with telehealth companies to increase patient access to it.

The US’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has imposed restrictions on these compounds. It is now illegal under US law, with some exceptions, to make compounded semaglutide.

Doustdar predicts a lot of patients on compounded products will move to branded products within this year’s second half.