Oscar Predictions 2024: Who Will Win in Every Category

In the weeks since the Oscar nominees were announced, there have been a handful of momentum shifts to consider as we make our 2024 Oscar predictions, and a lot of mysteries to follow as we head into Oscar night. But some things have felt preordained since long before then, namely, that Oppenheimer is about to have yet another very, very good night.

How good will it be? That’s the question we’re trying to answer as we make our final predictions, with Oppenheimer nominated in 13 different categories but facing plenty of competition, from the tight adapted-screenplay race to legendary talents in the editing and original-score categories. There’s also plenty of suspense in categories like best animated feature, as well as in the costume and production-design categories, where voters will somehow have to choose between the wildly different worlds of Poor Things and Barbie.

Below, see our full list of final predictions, and if you’re so inclined, fill out your interactive Oscar ballot accordingly. Join us this Sunday for our extensive coverage of the Oscars 2024, from the earliest moments on the Academy’s red carpet to the dance floor of the Vanity Fair Oscar Party. You can tune in to Vanity Fair’s Oscar party livestream. See you there!

BEST PICTUREAmerican Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

It’s been more than a decade since one film fully swept the main precursor prizes in the awards race—that is, taking home best picture or its equivalent from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and British Academy. That movie was Argo, which of course went on to win the top Oscar in 2013—as did the movie to accomplish the feat before it, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. Such unchecked dominance doesn’t happen often, but when it does, this particular category gets painfully easy to predict. And so, Oppenheimer will join that class after an unstoppable performance on the trail this season, with no competitor even once being able to snag momentum away from it. This marks a crowning moment for writer-director Christopher Nolan (more on that in a moment), with the only question left being just how many Oscars the nearly $1 billion–grossing phenomenon will take home (also more on that below). —David Canfield

BEST DIRECTORJonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

There are some years when a film can be guaranteed to win best picture without an equivalent win for its director—but this is not one of those years. Christopher Nolan has been one of Hollywood’s most influential and respected mainstream filmmakers for nearly 20 years, and even before Oppenheimer became an unlikely global hit, he was one of the last great hopes for original filmmaking on a blockbuster scale. It was his name on which Oppenheimer was sold, and it would be impossible to reward one without the other. —Katey Rich

BEST ACTRESSAnnette Bening, Nyad
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

There is still a good chance that Emma Stone pulls out the win here, but after Lily Gladstone’s big win at the SAG Awards on January 24, the odds are back in the Killers of the Flower Moon star’s favor. Both actors delivered stand-out performances—Stone’s adventurous turn in Poor Things is the film’s centerpiece, where Gladstone’s moving portrayal of a grieving woman at the center of a horrific and deadly conspiracy in Killers is the film’s bleeding heart. This category is a fierce one overall, with tremendous, varied performances across the board, but Gladstone and Stone have won the lion’s share of awards so far. Not only that, but Gladstone has been making history all season long. She is the first Indigenous actor to win a SAG award in the best-actress category, and a win at the Oscars on March 10 will be the first ever for a Native American actor. —Kara Warner

BEST ACTORBradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

This category has seen plenty of intrigue over the last few years, from Anthony Hopkins’s shocking upset over the late Chadwick Boseman to Brendan Fraser narrowly overtaking Austin Butler in last year’s nail-biter. But I suspect this year’s edition has been pretty much settled going into Sunday. While Paul Giamatti beat out Cillian Murphy at Critics Choice and continues to ride a wave of great notices and career appreciation following his appealing turn in The Holdovers, the Oppenheimer star has started running away with this thing, eking out wins with both SAG and BAFTA—two industry groups that have significant membership overlap with the Academy. Moreover, Oppenheimer seems poised to overperform at the Oscars in the same way Everything Everywhere All at Once did just a year ago. Murphy’s case is rather similar to Michelle Yeoh’s, that of a familiar face giving a great, rare lead showcase in a movie that the Academy cannot get enough of. I suspect that combination will, once more, be too powerful to deny. —D.C.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSEmily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

After winning virtually every supporting-actress award this season—including the SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, Golden Globe, and a slew of critics awards—Da’Vine Joy Randolph is as unstoppable a contender as we’ve ever seen in any category. And it’s not for lack of competition. Two-time best-actress winner Jodie Foster earned some of her best reviews in decades for her warm turn in Nyad, while Emily Blunt got her long-awaited first nomination for her role in awards juggernaut Oppenheimer. Danielle Brooks and America Ferrara, both first-time nominees, are industry veterans despite their youth, with a growing legion of fans. But this year has belonged to Randolph since The Holdovers first premiered in the fall, and there’s seemingly nothing standing in her way. —K.R.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTORSterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Much like the season-long dominance by Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Robert Downey Jr. has won every major trophy for which he has been nominated, including the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and most recently the SAG award for best supporting actor. There is a lot of love for all five actors in this category, especially given the range of performances represented. Robert De Niro is almost expected to garner a nomination whenever he works with Martin Scorsese; Sterling K. Brown is a celebrated first-time nominee for his scene-stealing in American Fiction; and both Mark Ruffalo and Ryan Gosling play differently hilarious, award-caliber himbos. And yet, Downey’s meticulous and menacing arc in Oppenheimer has captured the most attention and acclaim, capping a comeback story that’s been one of Hollywood’s most appealing narratives for nearly two decades. —K.W.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYPREDICTED WINNER: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik, May December
Celine Song, Past Lives

It’s rather remarkable that all signs are pointing to Anatomy of a Fall right now, a French movie that’s steadily gained steam in the US since taking the Palme d’Or at Cannes. The result is a spectacular five Oscar nominations including best picture, director, and actress. This is the race it’s most likely to win, though, as it’s effectively swept the televised awards, with cowriters (and couple) Justine Triet and Arthur Harari winning both the Globe and BAFTA. For context as to just how unusual this is, the only two non-English-language screenplay winners this century were Parasite and Talk to Her—two films by international auteurs already well-known Stateside, Bong Joon-ho and Pedro Almodóvar, respectively. Anatomy has essentially introduced Triet to American audiences, her film so beloved it may take her all the way.

There’s still some room here for an upset, though, as several writerly best-picture nominees are competing here. Past Lives won best picture and director at the Independent Spirit Awards, with screenplay remaining Celine Song’s only viable shot for an Oscar. Affection for The Holdovers still runs deep, and if it does perform better than expected with the Academy, this is a place it could pop. Still, since neither have thus far been able to beat out Anatomy—a film with more momentum than either of them—they’re running from behind. —D.C.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYPREDICTED WINNER: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

It feels very strange not to be predicting Barbie, the world-straddling 2023 hit from a writer-director who, remarkably, is the first person in history to have all three of her first solo feature films nominated for best picture. When Greta Gerwig was left out of the best-director lineup, it seemed entirely possible that she and cowriter and husband Noah Baumbach would be rewarded with a win for their screenplay, a witty and endlessly inventive spin on the famous doll. It is still entirely possible that this will happen. But it’s also impossible to deny the momentum behind Cord Jefferson—like Gerwig was with Lady Bird, a first-time solo writer-director with a best-picture nomination—and American Fiction. The film overperformed on Oscar nominations morning with five nominations, and has since won the screenplay award at BAFTA as well as the Independent Spirit Awards. And it’s also hard to deny that Oppenheimer is poised for a huge night, and Nolan’s inventive adaptation of the massive biography American Prometheus is an exceptional feat. That all makes this category one of the night’s most difficult to predict, but we’re banking on voters wanting to give American Fiction its due somewhere, and this being the best place to do it. —K.R.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATUREIo Capitano, Italy
Perfect Days, Japan
Society of the Snow, Spain
The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany
PREDICTED WINNER: The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom 

Another incredibly stacked category here—all five features are must-watch for any/all who haven’t already done so. That said, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is the standout, not only because of its four other nominations—for best picture, adapted screenplay, director, and sound—but because of its precursor victories in this equivalent category in places like BAFTA, Critics Choice, the Gotham Independent Awards, and the Indie Spirits. The chilling drama about a Nazi leader’s family living next to Auschwitz has captivated audiences since its premiere and Grand Prix win at Cannes. Next stop: Oscar gold for best international feature, with slight potential to upset Oppenheimer in the sound category (more on that later). —K.W.

BEST ANIMATED FEATUREThe Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

For once, we’ve got a race here—and perhaps a test of just how much the Academy has evolved of late. The Boy and the Heron is a thrillingly complex, unusual, and international challenger to presumed front-runner Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Already, the Hayao Miyazaki film has won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for best animated feature, the latter a key signal of its ability to win over a wide swath of industry voters—the name of the game when it comes to Oscar. Spider-Verse, however, has found more momentum recently, taking home the Annie Award and PGA. In an ordinary year, I’d say Heron has shown enough strength to pull it off with the Academy, since the Oscars’ voting body is increasingly global and Miyazaki is a past winner with the group. (This potentially being his final film boosts that latter point.) But Spider-Verse is stiff competition: It’s far more accessible than Heron, widely acclaimed and hugely popular. Spider-Verse is working off of a far higher floor than Heron, and in what may be the night’s true nail-biter, my prediction—and it’s a very uneasy one, given just how close this is—is that fact will get it the win in the end. —D.C.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATUREBobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
PREDICTED WINNER: 20 Days in Mariupol

Mstyslav Chernov’s 20 Days in Mariupol is a harrowing look at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022. During the attack on Mariupol, Ukrainian journalist Chernov and his fellow Associated Press colleagues courageously filmed and sent dispatches from the city under siege where they were trapped. The footage, which featured devastating civilian deaths, helped alert the world to what was happening on the ground. Chernov’s film has won a BAFTA, DGA, and a Pulitzer, in addition to its many other accolades. Tunisian director Kaouther Ben Hania’s Four Daughters is the likely runner-up, given its impressive debut at Cannes that led to winning the equivalent César, Gotham, and Independent Spirit Award. All five nominees here are for international films and filmmakers (Uganda, India, and Chile are also represented), an intriguing indicator of the documentary branch’s increasingly international membership, which now represents 20% of the total voting body. —K.W.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYEdward Lachman, El Conde
Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
Matthew Libatique, Maestro
PREDICTED WINNER: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Robbie Ryan, Poor Things

Fun fact: All five nominees here have been nominated previously, but none have won, which means that no matter who wins, it will have a sense of being a long time coming. That said, it’s almost certainly going to Hoyte van Hoytema, whose only other nomination came from another Nolan collaboration, Dunkirk, but was a worthy contender for projects like Interstellar, Ad Astra, and Nope. On a night that seems destined to belong to Oppenheimer, Hoytema’s work capturing both expansive desert vistas and painfully intimate close-ups—many with a bulky, noisy IMAX camera—seems undeniable. —K.R.

BEST EDITINGLaurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall
Kevin Tent, The Holdovers
Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTED WINNER: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things

Bizarrely, Everything Everywhere All at Once became the first best-picture winner to also win this award in a full decade, going back to Argo. Is it really so easy for Oppenheimer to make it two in a row? Quite likely, if only because Jennifer Lame’s heroic efforts in stitching together Nolan’s relentless three-hour epic, maintaining both its kinetic path and narrative logic, are so plainly, boldly evident in the final film. She’s all but assured to win on her first nomination, with only a true shocker—say, Anatomy of a Fall surging more than anybody’s expecting—standing in her way. —D.C.

BEST COSTUME DESIGNPREDICTED WINNER: Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Napoleon
Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer
Holly Waddington, Poor Things

One Oscars promo has already referred to Poor Things’s central character as “Even Weirder Barbie,” and that does sum up the showdown between these two films in two different crafts categories. Barbie’s summertime dominance of fur coats and wild neon Rollerblading outfits seemed impossible to beat until Holly Waddington’s elaborate, imaginative work on Poor Things debuted in the fall. With 11 nominations and some recent momentum behind it, Poor Things seems a bit more popular with the Academy overall, but we’ll still give an edge to two-time Oscar winner Jacqueline Durran and the costume designs so iconic we’ll be seeing them on Halloween for the rest of our lives. —K.R.

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUPKaren Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, and Ashra Kelly-Blue; Golda
PREDICTED WINNER: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, and Lori McCoy-Bell; Maestro
Luisa Abel, Oppenheimer
Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, and Josh Weston; Poor Things
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé; Society of the Snow

Of its seven nominations, Maestro has the strongest chance of winning here. Bradley Cooper’s transformation as Leonard Bernstein is a major feat, not to mention the fact that makeup artist Kazu Hiro and his team also had the challenge of aging both Cooper and Carey Mulligan over the many years the film encompasses. Hiro previously won two Oscars for his work on Bombshell and Darkest Hour, both their own kinds of seemingly impossible transformations. And finally, Hiro recently won a top prize at the Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards, which have correctly awarded the future Oscar winner in the category for nine of the last 11 years. —K.W.

BEST SOUNDIan Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; The Creator 
Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, and Dean Zupancic; Maestro 
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
PREDICTED WINNER: Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, and Kevin O’Connell; Oppenheimer
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn; The Zone of Interest

The obvious money is on Oppenheimer here: The film is incredibly strong overall, and voters in this category love big, loud, ambitious work. Indeed, Christopher Nolan’s films have swept the sound category multiple times already, in Inception and Dunkirk. There’s simply too much in Oppenheimer’s favor to logically predict against it, and so I won’t. And yet! I’m compelled by the candidacy of The Zone of Interest. In its campaign, A24 has brilliantly emphasized the sound design of Jonathan Glazer’s chilling portrait of everyday Nazi life, with banal scenes of family squabbles and garden tours taking place against the harrowing soundscape of the terror at Auschwitz happening just next door. Very occasionally, voters here recognize relatively crafty, conceptual sound edits and mixes, as with Sound of Metal a few years ago. Given the admiration for this best-picture nominee, it’ll surely receive support for its only below-the-line nomination. Whether that’s enough to take down a juggernaut very much remains to be seen. —D.C.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTSJay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould; The Creator 
PREDICTED WINNER: Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima; Godzilla Minus One 
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould; Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould; Napoleon

The British special effects supervisor Neil Corbould is already the category’s big winner, nominated for his work on three different nominees (and with two Oscars already at home). And as part of the team nominated for The Creator, he’s already been victorious this season, with that film taking home five prizes from the Visual Effects Society Awards. But the innovative, low-budget The Creator is the least seen of all five nominees, and we imagine there will be a swell of affection for another of this season’s low-budget underdogs. A surprise hit in the US, Godzilla Minus One carried on the legacy of the iconic monster with a budget of less than $15 million, and earned notice from critics around the country. With Oppenheimer not even nominated, this category is tricky to predict, but why not side with a beloved monster when you can? —K.R.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNPREDICTED WINNER: Sarah Greenwood, production design; Katie Spencer, set decoration; Barbie
Jack Fisk, production design; Adam Willis, set decoration; Killers of the Flower Moon 
Arthur Max, production design; Elli Griff, set decoration; Napoleon
Ruth De Jong, production design; Claire Kaufman, set decoration; Oppenheimer 
James Price and Shona Heath, production design; Zsuzsa Mihalek, set decoration; Poor Things 

Despite the fact that the Art Directors Guild gave Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Saltburn its top awards in the period, fantasy, and contemporary feature film categories, Barbie is the very deserving winner here. Plus, the entire Academy votes for this category, and the Greta Gerwig–directed film has plenty of fans there. Of the five nominated productions, Barbie stands out. That audiences were so fully transported into the very colorful and nostalgic universe of the world’s most famous dolls—complete with very familiar Barbie Dream Houses, cars, and other memorable set pieces—is a huge testament to Greenwood and Spencer’s creativity and craftsmanship. Sure there are beautiful landscapes and construction in Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer; sweeping battlefronts and French architecture in Napoleon; and vivid, imaginative European flair in Poor Things, but was anything more delicious than that Mojo Dojo Casa House reveal? It inspired a whole interior decoration trend on TikTok, so let’s give the designers behind it some Oscar gold. —K.W.

BEST ORIGINAL SONGPREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?,” Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, Barbie
“I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, Barbie
“The Fire Inside,” Diane Warren, Flamin’ Hot
“It Never Went Away,” Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson, American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Scott George, Killers of the Flower Moon

The Critics Choice Awards tried to inject some intrigue into this race by honoring “I’m Just Ken” rather than “What Was I Made For?,” but the latter song, penned by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, has otherwise marched toward victory—even pulling off a stunning Grammy win for song of the year over the likes of Taylor Swift, Miley Cyrus, and Olivia Rodrigo. We can be very confident in its chances of winning this trophy—which would make Eilish and O’Connell two-time Oscar winners at 22 and 26, respectively—with only “Ken” in position for a long shot upset. One thing’s for sure, Barbie will be taking this award. Indeed, the film’s win tally may include this and nothing else. —D.C.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORELaura Karpman, American Fiction
John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTED WINNER: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

These five nominees have a fascinating range of experience in the film industry, from Poor Things’ Jerskin Fendrix composing his first-ever film score to titan John Williams composing, and being nominated for, what could be his last. Robbie Robertson’s posthumous nomination for Killers of the Flower Moon, his first, carries a real sentimental power, while Laura Karpman’s nomination for the jazzy American Fiction score is evidence of just how beloved that film is by Academy voters. Still, this is another place where it feels unwise to bet against Oppenheimer, particularly because Ludwig Göransson’s booming, ever-present score is as inextricable from the film’s power as its inventive editing is (remember, we expect the film to win that Oscar too). Göransson is already a winner for 2018’s Black Panther, but at the rate he’s going, he might catch up with Williams’s five Oscars before he’s done. —K.R.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORTThe After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
PREDICTED WINNER: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

The eighth nomination is the charm for director Wes Anderson. Though he has previously been nominated in a variety of categories—writing, directing, animated feature, and best picture—he has not yet won, and this is a major reason why he will win this year. It also helps that the short, based on a Roald Dahl short story and starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, and Dev Patel, is streaming on and promoted by Netflix. An Oscar win here would be a full-circle-esque moment for Anderson, given the fact that he made his directorial debut with a short film that launched his career: Bottle Rocket, which debuted at Sundance in 1993. For much more on Henry Sugar and the rest of the nominees here, check out David Canfield’s excellent guide. —K.W.

BEST ANIMATED SHORTPREDICTED WINNER: Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

As I wrote in my roundup of this year’s nominated shorts, two films offer very different paths to a win here. On the relatively artistic and weighty side, there’s Letter to a Pig, an elliptical, if gorgeously crafted, portrait of a Holocaust survivor and the story he tells a group of young students about a pig that saved him. The short may be confusing for viewers, but its impact is undeniable, with a subject matter sure to draw in a certain segment of the Academy. Then, on the other end, you’ve got the comparatively mawkish War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, a simplistic take on war and humanity that doesn’t take any stylistic risks, exactly, but may have just enough feel-good buzz to take it over the top. The choice couldn’t be starker. —D.C.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORTThe ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
PREDICTED WINNER: The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

This is an unusually cheerful group of nominees for this category, with even the films taking on heavy subjects like book banning and income inequality being enlivened by the presence of their charismatic subjects. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó is a very strong contender for that very reason, a slice of life about two irrepressible grandmothers who will be walking the Oscar red carpet in style. But the heavy favorite remains The Last Repair Shop, from directors Ben Proudfoot (a winner for The Queen of Basketball) and Kris Bowers (previously nominated, with Proudfoot, for A Concerto Is a Conversation). Telling the stories of people who repair instruments for Los Angeles public school students, it’s well crafted and just sentimental enough to win over skeptics—in other words, a perfect winner for this category. —K.R.

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