Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Fall Festivals Kick Off Early Awards Buzz for ‘Blitz,’ ‘Joker 2’ and ‘Maria’

Pablo Larrain

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Ralph Fiennes stars as Cardinal Lawrence in director Edward Berger’s CONCLAVE, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2024 All Rights Reserved.
Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2

Weekly Commentary (Updated July 27, 2024): The early buzz for possible awards contenders has begun.

Venice Film Festival revealed its lineup with a star-studded affair with the world premieres of Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” Pablo Larraín’s “Maria” and Luca Guadgnino’s “Queer,” all hoping to make a solid first impression on the international circuit.

In Toronto, the slate is headlined with films by Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”), Ron Howard (“Eden”), and John Crowley (“We Live in Time”). In addition, Oscar-winning editor William Goldenberg is making his directorial debut with “Unstoppable” starring Jharrel Jerome and Jennifer Lopez, which could be a commercial awards play.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

Telluride doesn’t release its lineup until the day before the fest begins on Aug. 30. Still, Variety has pointed to the potential strong lineup based on the film’s classifications at other festivals. Among those, it will include the world premieres of possible contenders such as Edward Berger’s “Conclave,” RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys,” Morgan Neville’s “Piece by Piece,” and Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The End.” In addition, replays from Cannes could also get their bows stateside, including Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.”

We also got a first look at James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” with confirmation that it will be dropping in December but avoiding the fall festival circuit. Watch out for the movie to potentially crash the awards season significantly, especially with star and producer Timothée Chalamet supporting the project.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

Image Credit: Warner Bros.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

RankFilm1“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello2“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick3“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer 4“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine 5“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Nina Byrne, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen6“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar7“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross8“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joseph Garner9“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan10“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

Next in Line

RankFilm11“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)12“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 13“SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)14“Sing Sing” (A24)15“Maria” (No U.S. Distribution)16“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)17“The End” (Neon)18“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)19“Challengers” (Amazon MGM)20“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Sam Levy/Netflix

Other Contenders

RankFilm21“His Three Daughters” (Netflix)22“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)23“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)24“We Live in Time” (A24)25“Eden” (No U.S. Distribution)26“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)27“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)28“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)29“In the Summers” (Music Box Films)30“The Substance” (Mubi)Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Courtesy of Brady Corbet

Also In Contention

RankFilm31“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)32“Here” (Sony Pictures)33“Babygirl” (A24)34“The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution)35“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)36“The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution)37“Queer” (No U.S. Distribution)38“Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution)39“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)40“The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution)Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Titles (Best Picture)

Image Credit: Apple

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)

Image Credit: Getty

2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

——Best PictureDirectorActor in a Leading RoleActress in a Leading RoleActor in a Supporting RoleActress in a Supporting RoleOriginal ScreenplayAdapted ScreenplayAnimated FeatureProduction DesignCinematographyCostume DesignFilm EditingMakeup and HairstylingSoundVisual EffectsOriginal ScoreOriginal SongDocumentary FeatureInternational FeatureAnimated ShortDocumentary ShortLive Action ShortCasting (coming in 2026)2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.