Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor — Could Two ‘Challengers’ Find Love from the Academy?

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): This year’s supporting actor contenders feel a bit thinner than usual, but that could easily change before the Academy finalizes its five nominees. With so many potential contenders still waiting to make their mark, it’s safe to say that surprises could be lurking around the corner.

We’re still waiting on some official category confirmations and first looks for films like Kieran Culkin’s turn in “A Real Pain,” Gabriel LaBelle in “Saturday Night,” and the ever-dynamic Denzel Washington, who’s suiting up for his villainous role in “Gladiator II.” John Magaro and Peter Sarsgaard are also in the mix for their work in “September 5,” depending on where the actors decide to campaign.

In breaking news, Variety can now confirm that both Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor, the heartthrobs from Luca Guadagnino’s tennis-throuple love story “Challengers,” have decided to submit as supporting actors. This could add some unexpected heat to the competition. With their palpable chemistry on screen, their double entry might be the spark the supporting actor race needs this year.

Also in the wings is Edward Norton’s performance in James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown.” There is no word yet on whether Norton’s portrayal will have the impact we expect, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on with three previous noms (“Primal Fear,” “American History X” and “Birdman”). Meanwhile, fans of the “Wicked” musical adaptation will be eager to see if Jonathan Bailey and Jeff Goldblum can enter the conversation.

In the meantime, Clarence Maclin continues to pop up in the awards discussion for his stellar performance in Greg Kwedar’s prison drama “Sing Sing.” At the same time, we can’t overlook Stanley Tucci, a true veteran, who’s delivering what could be one of his best performances yet in Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave,” which premiered at Telluride. Tucci’s a familiar face at the Oscars, and the Academy will likely not miss the chance to acknowledge his work.

Then there’s Guy Pearce, whose buzzworthy role in Brady Corbet’s epic “The Brutalist” could remind us why he’s a Hollywood mainstay. With a runtime that spans four hours, it’ll be interesting to see if the Academy’s Actors Branch has the patience (and the time) to appreciate the scale of his performance fully.

Veteran actor John Turturro, who has been overlooked for an Oscar nod despite standout performances in films like “Quiz Show” (1994), could finally find himself in the mix for “The Room Next Door.” Turturro plays Damian, a passionate climate change advocate and former lover to both women in the film (Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton), delivering a climactic scene near the end that could secure his spot in the conversation.

Finally, don’t count out Brian Tyree Henry. Known for bringing depth and emotion to every role he takes on, Henry could land another nomination, this time for his portrayal of Jason Crutchfield, coach to Olympic boxing champion Claressa Shields, in the inspirational film “The Fire Inside.” With past Oscar-nominated boxing coaches like Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man” and Burgess Meredith in “Rocky,” Henry could find himself joining the ranks of memorable mentors who received the Academy’s invitation.

As always, the supporting actor category remains unpredictable. With a mix of familiar faces and exciting new contenders, this year is shaping up to be interesting. Check out the updated rankings below.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.

Image Credit: Focus Features

And the Predicted Nominees Are

RankPerformer & Film1Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **2Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)3Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **4Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist” (A24)5John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection

Next in Line

RankPerformer & Film6Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **7Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)8Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)9Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)10Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: TIFF

Other Contenders

RankPerformer & Film11Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)12Selton Mello — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)13Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)14Lamorne Morris — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)15Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)16John Magaro — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)17Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)18Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 19Jason Schwartzman — “Queer” (A24)20Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Yannis Drakoulidis

Also In Contention

RankPerformer & Film21Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)22Ben Chaplin — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)23John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)24Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)25Tommy Dewey — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)26Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)27Drew Starkey — “Queer” (A24)28Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)29Carlos Diehz — “Conclave” (Focus Features)30Bill Skarsgård — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Oscars: Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Performers (Best Supporting Actor)

Image Credit: Sony Pictures

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

Yura Borisov — “Anora” (Neon)

Mark Eydelshteyn — “Anora” (Neon)

Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Antonio Banderas — “Babygirl” (A24)

Harris Dickinson — “Babygirl” (A24)

Jean Reno — “Babygirl” (A24)

Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **

Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **

Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **

Harris Dickinson — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

Stephen Graham — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

Alessandro Nivola — “The Brutalist” (A24)

Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist” (A24)

Mike Faist — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)

Josh O’Connor — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)

Wagner Moura — “Civil War” (A24)

Jesse Plemons — “Civil War” (A24)

Boyd Holbrook — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

John Lithgow — “Conclave” (Focus Features)

Stanley Tucci — “Conclave” (Focus Features)

Sean Penn — “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics) **

Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) **

Wesley Snipes — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

Channing Tatum — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

Adam Pearson — “A Different Man” (A24)

Javier Bardem — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Josh Brolin — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Christopher Walken — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Édgar Ramírez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **

Shea Whigham — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)

Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)

Jude Law — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions) **

Chris Hemsworth — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)

Pedro Pascal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Joseph Quinn — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) **

David Webber — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)

Paul Bettany — “Here” (Sony Pictures)

Jovan Adepo — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

Jay O. Sanders — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

Michael Angarano — “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One” (Warner Bros.)

Selton Mello — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Ryan Reynolds — “IF” (Paramount Pictures)

Brendan Gleeson — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

Harry Lawtey — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

J.K. Simmons — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)

Kiefer Sutherland — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)

Joe Alwyn — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

Mamoudou Athie — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

Willem Dafoe — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

Andy Samberg — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

Mark Hamill — “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) **

Pierfrancesco Favino — “Maria” (Netflix)

Kodi Smit-McPhee — “Maria” (Netflix)

Giancarlo Esposito — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

Shia LaBeouf — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

Jon Voight — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

Daveed Diggs — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)

Scott McNairy — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)

Willem Dafoe — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Bill Skarsgård — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Aaron Taylor-Johnson — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Nicholas Hoult — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)

Paapa Essiedu — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Gary Oldman — “Parthenope” (A24)

Ray Fisher — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Corey Hawkins — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Michael Potts — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

Jason Schwartzman — “Queer” (A24)

Drew Starkey — “Queer” (A24)

Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) **

John Turturro — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Nicholas Braun — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Tommy Dewey — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Willem Dafoe — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Taylor Gray — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Cooper Hoffman — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) **

Lamorne Morris — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Dylan O’Brien — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

J.K. Simmons — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Cory Michael Smith — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Matt Wood — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

Ben Chaplin — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) **

John Magaro — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) **

Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) **

Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing” (A24)

Paul Raci — “Sing Sing” (A24)

Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)

Dennis Quaid — “The Substance” (Mubi)

Richard Roundtree — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)

Jonathan Bailey — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Jeff Goldblum — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Pedro Pascal — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)

Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety

2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here

Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

——Best PictureDirectorActor in a Leading RoleActress in a Leading RoleActor in a Supporting RoleActress in a Supporting RoleOriginal ScreenplayAdapted ScreenplayAnimated FeatureProduction DesignCinematographyCostume DesignFilm EditingMakeup and HairstylingSoundVisual EffectsOriginal ScoreOriginal SongDocumentary FeatureInternational FeatureAnimated ShortDocumentary ShortLive Action ShortCasting (coming in 2026)2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.