Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Will the Academy Double Dip for Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña From ‘Emilia Pérez?’

Netflix

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The Piano Lesson. Danielle Deadwyler as Berniece in “The Piano Lesson.”
Courtesy of Netflix

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): All eyes are on Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña as they enter the supporting actress race for Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.” Oscar history shows it’s not uncommon for multiple actresses from the same film to be nominated in the supporting category; over 33% of past lineups have featured more than one actress from a single movie.

Saldaña, already a box office heavyweight, is emerging as an early frontrunner thanks to her roles in four of the highest-grossing films of all time. While her screen time in “Emilia Pérez” is nearly equal to that of co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, the decision to campaign Saldaña in the supporting category follows a familiar Oscars strategy. A prime example is “Chicago” (2002), where Catherine Zeta-Jones won the supporting actress Oscar while Renée Zellweger was nominated in the lead category. Coincidentally, Zeta-Jones was joined by co-star Queen Latifah, who also came from the music industry — a promising parallel for Gomez.

This approach could work in Gomez’s favor. Coming off her first Emmy nomination for “Only Murders in the Building,” she shines in “Emilia Pérez” as Jessi, the estranged wife of the title character. Blending emotional depth with her undeniable star power, Gomez’s performance has already generated buzz. If both she and Saldaña score nominations, it would make history as the first time two Latinas are nominated in the same category for the same film. So far, only two Latinas have won acting Oscars: Rita Moreno for “West Side Story” (1961) and Ariana DeBose for the 2022 remake — both for playing the same character.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

On the other side of the Oscar conversation is Saoirse Ronan, who is entering the race with two highly anticipated performances. Ronan is competing for best actress for “The Outrun,” a Sundance hit, and in the supporting actress category for “Blitz,” a World War II epic. If she’s nominated for both roles, Ronan would become the 13th person and the youngest actor to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Of the 12 actors to accomplish this feat, seven went on to win an Oscar for one of their roles, including legends like Jessica Lange and Al Pacino.

In “Blitz,” which opens the BFI London Film Festival, Ronan portrays Rita, a mother desperate to reunite with her young son after sending him to the countryside for safety. The film, written and directed by Steve McQueen, boasts a stellar cast, including Harris Dickinson and Stephen Graham, adding to its growing anticipation.

Meanwhile, Danielle Deadwyler is making her mark with “The Piano Lesson,” directed by Malcolm Washington. Deadwyler stars as Berniece, an emotionally charged widow in this adaptation of August Wilson’s 1987 play. Historically, the role of Berniece has been campaigned in the supporting category, which is likely where Deadwyler will be placed this awards season. The character has been portrayed by actresses such as S. Epatha Merkerson and Danielle Brooks, both receiving critical acclaim.

Deadwyler’s standout performance as Mamie Till in “Till” (2022) had many pegging her as a sure-fire Oscar contender last year. While she received a SAG nomination, her snub by the Academy was one of the season’s biggest surprises. Hopefully, with her decisive turn in “The Piano Lesson,” Deadwyler will get the recognition she deserves this time.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.

Image Credit: Apple

And the Predicted Nominees Are

RankPerformer & Film1Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 2Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 3Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 4Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features)5Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Warner Bros.

Next in Line

RankPerformer & Film6Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)7Leonie Benesch — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 8Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **9Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 10Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features / Tal

Other Contenders

RankPerformer & Film11Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)12Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)13Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)14Fernanda Montenegro — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)15Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **16Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **17Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **18Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)19Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi)20Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Image Credit: Pief Weyman

Also In Contention

RankPerformer & Film21Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)22Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)23Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) **24Lashana Lynch — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)25Lesley Manville — “Queer” (A24)26Rebecca Ferguson — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)27Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)28Rachel Sennott — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)29Ella Hunt — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)30Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)

Eligible Titles (Best Supporting Actress)

Image Credit: Focus Features

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actress)

Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety

2024 category winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

——Best PictureDirectorActor in a Leading RoleActress in a Leading RoleActor in a Supporting RoleActress in a Supporting RoleOriginal ScreenplayAdapted ScreenplayAnimated FeatureProduction DesignCinematographyCostume DesignFilm EditingMakeup and HairstylingSoundVisual EffectsOriginal ScoreOriginal SongDocumentary FeatureInternational FeatureAnimated ShortDocumentary ShortLive Action ShortCasting (coming in 2026)2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

More from Variety