Power Ranking Every MLB Team’s Ace Entering 2024 Season
Power Ranking Every MLB Team’s Ace Entering 2024 Season 0 of 30
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In constructing a list ranking the aces of all 30 teams, you realize there are five or so starters who have no business taking the ball on Opening Day. But the flip side of that is when limiting each team to only their very best pitcher, other ace-caliber arms get left off the countdown.
Among those we’re considering the No. 2 starters in their own rotationâeven if they would be aces on other squadsâare Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies and George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners.
Fried was limited to just 14 starts a year ago, but has three Gold Glove Awards and two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume. He’s set to become part of a deep class of pitching free agents next winter.
Nola, meanwhile, was briefly a free agent this offseason before returning to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million deal. In 2018 and 2022, Nola finished in the top four in NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s also one of the premier workhorses in the game today, as his 1,065.1 innings pitched since the start of 2018 are second only to Gerrit Cole’s.
Finally, Kirby is someone who may not have as much national recognition as Fried and Nola but should. Kirby was an All-Star for the first time in 2023, posting a 3.35 ERA and 4.4 WAR over 190.2 innings pitched.
So yes, the first few names on this list, in an ideal world, wouldn’t be aces. But the overwhelming majority deserve to the recognition, so much so that they’ve pushed other elite starters off the countdown. Here, from worst to first, is B/R’s ranking of the league’s 30 aces entering the 2024 season.
30. Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics1 of 30
Ron Schwane/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 30
2023 Stats: 4-7, 103.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 104 K’s, 1.5 WAR
While Blackburn’s 4.43 ERA in 2023 would lead you to believe that he had a disappointing follow-up after being an All-Star in 2022, there needs to be more context added.
First of all, the A’s have gutted their roster with owner John Fisher not even pretending to try, so someone that’s probably not deserving is going to get a chance to be an All-Star every season. That someone was Blackburn in 2022.
Secondly, while Blackburn’s ERA increased 15 points between 2022 and 2023, his 3.96 FIP over 103.2 innings pitched last season was quite the improvement over the 4.21 mark he finished 2022 with.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaPaul Blackburn’s 9th K thru 5 pic.twitter.com/jjvvVje3HY
The more important context is that Blackburn shouldn’t be an ace for an MLB team, and probably shouldn’t even be a No. 3 starter. But that premise assumes the A’s are trying to put together an MLB-caliber team in what appear to be their waning days in Oakland. What they’re actually trying to do is build a team so bad that fans don’t show up and they can work backward from their conclusion to relocate to Las Vegas. And unfortunately, Blackburn is caught up in that fiasco, serving as the No. 1 starter on a team with very few other players worthy of being in the majors.
29. Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies2 of 30
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: 6-14, 155.2 IP, 5.03 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 94 K’s, 1.2 WAR
If you want to talk about someone who had a “Linsanity run” in baseball, Freeland’s 2018 season increasingly feels like it fits the bill.
Playing for his hometown Rockies, Freeland went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 4.1 WAR across 202.1 innings, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting. In the five seasons since then, Freeland is 27-47 with a 4.96 ERA.
Once upon a time, Freeland and GermĂĄn MĂĄrquez looked like one of the most promising one-two punches in baseball. At the outset of the 2024 season, Freeland is the second-lowest-rated ace on this list, and MĂĄrquez will be on the 60-day injured list as he continues to recover from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last May.
With each passing year, Ubaldo Jiménez finishing third in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2010 while playing his home games at Coors Field looks more impressive.
28. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels3 of 30
Michael Owens/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 24
2023 Stats: 4-10, 148.2 IP, 4.48 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 168 K’s, 2.5 WAR
Detmers’ 4-10 record and 4.48 ERA in 2023 don’t jump off the page, but he did log 148.2 innings and struck out 168 batters. It remains to be seen exactly how good Detmers will be, but the Angels unquestionably landed an MLB starter with the 10th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaReid Detmers, Gorgeous 76mph Curveball. đ pic.twitter.com/QuNLLTcVU0
Like many of the arms on the bottom of this list, Detmers can’t be blamed for the poor roster construction of the Angels, or the fact that Shohei Ohtaniânow a Dodgerâis the only front-line starter the Halos have managed to land during Mike Trout’s career.
Should Detmers be an ace? No, and perhaps before Opening Day, the Angels will sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, two fellow lefties much more equipped to lead a rotation. But he won’t become eligible for arbitration until next season and can’t become a free agent until after 2028. Detmers should be a cog in the Angels rotation for the foreseeable futureâbut ideally not at the very top.
27. Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals4 of 30
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 26
2023 Stats: 8-13, 159 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 143 K’s, 1.6 WAR
Gray was an All-Star a season ago, posting a 3.41 ERA in 18 starts before the midsummer classic. That’s strong production, although it’s fair to assume he wouldn’t have been an All-Star if he wasn’t on a team without any obvious choice to be the representative. More concerning is that in the second half of the season, Gray went 2-6 with a 4.76 ERA in 12 starts.
Still, there’s a lot to like about Gray, who is only 26. He has five pitches that he utilized more than 10 percent of the time a season ago, led by his slider (36.9 percent) and four-seam fastball (18.3 percent).
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaJosiah Gray’s 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/jH9LWQqkIC
The reality is that Gray was part of the trade package the Nationals received when they dealt Max Scherzer and Trea Turnerâtwo of the greatest players in franchise historyâto the Los Angeles Dodgers in July 2021. It was always going to be difficult for he and catcher Keibert Ruiz, who also came back to D.C. in the trade, to ever feel like a subsequent return.
Washington is about as far away from contention as any team in the league, which will give it the chance to be patient with Gray. The good news is after allowing an MLB-leading 38 home runs in 2022, Gray limited opponents to 22 home runs in 2023. Whether he should have been an All-Star or is an ideal person to be an Opening Day starter at this point of his career is certainly questionable, but Gray could very well be part of the next contending Nationals team.
26. Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals5 of 30
Quinn Harris/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 26
2023 Stats: 5-2, 96 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 113 K’s, 2.2 WAR
Acquired from the Texas Rangers in the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the eventual World Series champions last June, Ragans looks to have been a steal for the Royals. Across 12 starts after being traded to Kansas City, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.49 FIP while recording 89 strikeouts.
Just Baseball @JustBB_MediaIt’s Cole Ragans dayđ€
He’s shoving per usual and is doing it in style in a Kansas City Monarchs uniform!
pic.twitter.com/FD3sOK8d6a
So why is Ragans only No. 26? First of all, there’s no shame in being low on a list like this. Secondly, Ragans had a 5.32 ERA and 5.05 FIP in 29 career appearances for the Rangers before being traded.
The ZiPS projection system isn’t particularly bullish on Ragans’ ability to duplicate his 12 starts with the ’23 Royals: 4.04 ERA and 4.01 FIP. That’s still a quality output for someone acquired for a rental reliever, but it’s fair to say there’s some skepticism about whether Ragans will be a legitimate No. 1 starter over the course of a full season.
25. Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox6 of 30
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 29
2023 Stats: 8-15, 184.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 5.27 FIP, 204 K’s, 1.0 WAR
Note: This list was compiled before ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Lucas Giolito likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and could be out for the 2024 season. If Giolito misses the season, Nick Pivetta would slot in as the team’s ace.
If there was a free-agent pitcher this past offseason that most needed to go to a place where he wasn’t expected to take the ball on Opening Day and be the ace, it was Lucas Giolito. Instead, barring another free-agent signing, Giolito will be the No. 1 starter for a Boston Red Sox rotation full of pitchers who best profile as back-of-the-rotation arms.
It’s not that Giolito hasn’t ever pitched at an ace level. Between 2019 and 2021, Giolito posted a 3.47 ERA across 427.2 innings. Over that three-season stretch with the Chicago White Sox, Giolito’s 11.3 WAR was the seventh-best mark among all qualified starters.
The problem is that Giolito struggled in 2022, posting an 81 ERA+ (100 is the league average) in 30 starts. And things arguably got even worse in 2023, a campaign Giolito split with the White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians. Giolito finished 2023 having allowed a staggering 41 home runs while posting a 4.88 ERA. To his credit, he still made 33 starts, but it was about as bad of a contract year as he could have had.
Boston gave Giolito a two-year, $38.5 million deal that includes a player opt-out after 2024, which was fair market value. But it was the type of deal that would have made sense for a team with an established ace or two that was hoping to be able to resuscitate Giolito’s career in addition to what it already has.
Instead, Giolito landed in Boston, where if he doesn’t return to the 2019-21 form he showed, the Red Sox will almost certainly finish in last place in the loaded AL East. If Giolito does rebound, he’ll opt out and could go elsewhere after the 2024 season given that the Red Sox have pinched pennies in recent years.
24. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds7 of 30
Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 24
2023 Stats: 4-7, 112 IP, 4.82 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 152 K’s, 2.0 WAR
Led by a fastball that sits close to 99 mph, Hunter Greene has top-of-the-rotation potential. With a lineup that clearly is playoff-caliber, the Cincinnati Reds need Greene to emerge as a consistent front-line starter in 2024.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffCareer-high TWELVE strikeouts for Hunter Greene today âœïž
(via @BallySportsCIN)pic.twitter.com/VlshXbsElS
Greene was prone to blowups in 2023, allowing five or more earned runs in five starts. Of the 60 earned runs the 2017 No. 2 overall pick surrendered a year ago, 31 came over the aforementioned five ugly starts. Across the other 17 starts, Greene gave up just 29 earned runs.
The Reds might have the most boom-or-bust rotation in baseball, as they aren’t entirely sure what they’ll get from Greene, Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo. The best-case scenario for the Reds is that Greene is an All-Star in 2024 and at the forefront of an NL Central-winning campaign.
23. Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates8 of 30
Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 13-9, 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 210 K’s, 3.3 WAR
A second-round pick in 2014, Keller agreed to a new five-year, $77 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates this offseason after consecutive strong seasons for the Buccos.
Between 2022 and 2023, Keller posted a 4.08 ERA and 3.84 FIP over 353.1 innings pitched. Perhaps Keller would be better cast as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter on a contending team, but his development and subsequent contract extension is a success story for the low-budget Pirates.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffThe front view of Mitch Keller’s arsenal đ„
(via @TreadHQ) pic.twitter.com/1fVHXs4DAN
Keller will get the ball on Opening Day for the Pirates for the second year in a row. In addition to extending Keller, Pittsburgh made some other minor additions this offseason by signing Aroldis Chapman, Yasmani Grandal and Rowdy Tellez. The Pirates are hopeful that with Keller atop their rotation and the continued development of Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes, they’ll play in the postseason for the first time since 2015.
22. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers9 of 30
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 34
2023 Stats: 12-5, 144 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 132 K’s, 2.5 WAR
At least to this point, the Texas Rangers haven’t been able to reach a deal to bring Jordan Montgomery back. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer won’t be ready to pitch until “at least June or July” as he recovers from back surgery. And while two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom could be a factor late in the season as he returns from Tommy John surgery, betting on his health has been a losing proposition over the last half decade.
Eovaldi has pitched at a high enough level in two of the last three seasons to be considered the ace of the Rangers entering the season. While he’s battled his fair share of injuries during his career, Eovaldi was an All-Star for the Rangers a season ago, posting a 3.63 ERA over 144 innings.
Eovaldi was a World Series hero with the Red Sox in 2018 and was tremendous last fall as the Rangers won their first World Series. Eovaldi posted a 2.95 ERA and recorded 41 strikeouts over 36.2 innings during the 2023 postseason.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffNathan Eovaldi. LOCKED IN.
đ @MLB pic.twitter.com/eIAIdFcuJJ
Now 34, Eovaldi will make $16 million in the final guaranteed season of his contract. If Eovaldi pitches 156 innings in 2024, that would give him 300 frames between the first two years of his deal, which would add a $20 million vesting player option for 2025 to his contract.
21. Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays10 of 30
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 30
2023 Stats: 16-8, 177.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 186 K’s, 4.8 WAR
Zach Eflin was one of the most pleasant surprises during his first season with the Tampa Bay Rays, logging a career-high 177.2 innings and finishing sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting after signing a three-year, $40 million deal in free agency.
Two-time All-Star Shane McClanahan will miss the entire season for the Rays, which makes Eflin their ace to open the season based on how well he pitched a season ago.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaZach Eflin, Filth. đ· pic.twitter.com/RluRdJGkzk
One area that gives you pause with Eflin is that 2023 was only the second time that he pitched more than 130 innings in a season, and the first since 2019 with the Philadelphia Phillies. Knee injuries regularly plagued Eflin during parts of seven seasons with the Phillies, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to replicate the workload amassed a season ago.
20. Kodai Senga, New York Mets11 of 30
Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: 12-7, 166.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 202 K’s, 3.4 WAR
The New York Mets traded future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander last summer, and weren’t able to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency, so it’s Senga who projects to be their ace when healthy in 2024.
Unfortunately for the Mets, Senga isn’t going to be ready to be the Opening Day starter as the Mets try the rest and rehabâalong with a platelet-rich plasma injectionâroute to heal his right shoulder strain. That leaves JosĂ© Quintana as the most established starter in a rotation that could be among the worst in the league if Luis Severino or Sean Manaea doesn’t bounce back in 2024.
The state of New York’s current rotation aside, Senga was excellent in his first season with the Mets. He posted a 142 ERA+ over 166.1 innings, making an All-Star Game appearance and finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffKodai Senga with his 12th strikeout of the night đ„ @Mets pic.twitter.com/EK4iNmrgcy
Perhaps he would be more like a No. 3 starter on a World Series contending team, but assuming his shoulder injury doesn’t end up requiring surgery, the five-year, $75 million deal the Mets signed Senga to when he came over from Japan looks to be a bargain.
19. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers12 of 30
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 25
2023 Stats (in Japan): 17-6, 171 IP, 1.16 ERA, 176 K’s
If Yoshinobu Yamamoto proves to be as good as the Los Angeles Dodgers believed he would when they gave him a 12-year, $325 million deal this offseason, this ranking will prove to be too low. Still, No. 19 is a pretty high ranking for someone who has yet to make their MLB debut.
But yeah, Dodgers fans should be extremely excited about Yamamoto. Only 25, Yamamoto went 16-6 with a minuscule 1.21 ERA and 0.884 WHIP over 164 innings for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball a season ago.
Yamamoto’s pitch repertoire includes a four-seam fastball, splitter, curveball and cutter that should immediately make him one of the game’s more electric pitchers.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffThe sounds of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s bullpen đpic.twitter.com/SidgLwzyhe
Los Angeles will need Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller to immediately hit the ground running, because they don’t have a ton of certainty in the rest of their starting rotation, particularly to open the season.
Neither Shohei Ohtani nor Tony Gonsolin will pitch in 2024 as they recover from Tommy John surgery. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw won’t be ready to pitch probably until the summer as he continues to work his way back from shoulder surgery last November. Dustin Mayâwhose right elbow has been operated on multiple times nowâis uncertain to pitch this season.
18. JesĂșs Luzardo, Miami Marlins13 of 30
Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 26
2023 Stats: 10-10, 178.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 208 K’s, 3.7 WAR
In many senses, JesĂșs Luzardo is a placeholder as the ace of the Miami Marlins. He’s long been mentioned as a trade candidate, given that Miami always seems to have more pitching than hitting talent. Former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy AlcĂĄntara would be the Opening Day starter, but he’ll miss the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. And the Fish will likely be cautious in just how much they push 20-year-old Eury PĂ©rez.
Nonetheless, the Florida native has been excellent since being acquired by what amounts to his hometown team in the July 2021 trade that sent Starling Marte to the Oakland Athletics. Luzardo posted a 125 ERA+ in 2023 (100 is the league average) while accumulating a career-high 178.2 innings. His 208 strikeouts were seventh among all NL pitchers.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaJesĂșs Luzardo’s 13th K. âïžđŠ
New Career High. pic.twitter.com/LhKvUVTbqB
Luzardo will make $5.5 million in 2024, his first season of arbitration eligibility. If the Marlins aren’t able to replicate their 2023 success, it will be interesting to see if they seriously consider offers for Luzardo this summer in search of more offense for the future, when AlcĂĄntara and PĂ©rez are headlining the starting rotation.
17. Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers14 of 30
Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 12-10, 165.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 210 K’s, 3.0 WAR
It probably would be a stretch to say that Freddy Peralta was a luxury for the Milwaukee Brewers over the last three seasons, when he was probably the best No. 3 starter in baseball.
But with Corbin Burnes traded to the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff uncertain to pitch at all in 2024 as he recovers from shoulder surgery, Peralta will step to the forefront of Milwaukee’s rotation this year.
The good news is while he hasn’t previously been the ace of the Brewers, Peralta has pitched at a very high level over the last three seasons, posting a 3.41 ERA over 388 innings.
Just Baseball @JustBB_MediaFreddy Peralta is absolutely DEALING tonight!
10 Ks at Coors đ„ pic.twitter.com/HBbZjFYntO
Peralta pitched a career-high 165.2 innings a year ago, but Milwaukee will probably need him to blow by that total in 2024 to be a playoff team. His ability to step up and pitch at an ace-like level will help determine whether the Brewers are buyers in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, or willing to listen to offers on veteran stars Devin Williams, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins.
16. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians15 of 30
Norm Hall/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 29
2023 Stats: 6-6, 128 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 107 K’s, 2.1 WAR
One could argue Shane Bieber should be closer to the top 10, given he won the AL Cy Young Award during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and racked up 200 innings in 2022.
However, there are some red flags with Bieber, which help to explain his ranking.
A right shoulder strain limited Bieber to just 96.2 innings pitched in 2021. Then, right elbow inflammation caused Bieber to make only 21 starts in 2023. What’s more, Bieber’s average fastball velocity in 2023 was 91.6 mph, a rather sharp decline from the 94.3 mph mark he posted when he won the AL Cy Young in 2020.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffThe Top 10 landing spots for Shane Bieber amid trade rumors đź @brandonkscott pic.twitter.com/1mZxpCbZSw
Bieber won’t turn 29 until after Memorial Day, so if he’s healthy in 2024, there will be trade interest in him this summer if the Cleveland Guardians choose to shop him before he reaches free agency. But between injuries and a velocity decline, there are enough concerning trends with Bieber to have some pause about him from a long-term perspective.
15. Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres16 of 30
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: 10-3, 97.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 97 K’s, 2.1 WAR
Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell remains a free agent, unlikely to return to the San Diego Padres. And given that Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo both departed in free agency as well, the Friars will need a full season from Musgrove if they hope to be in the NL playoff picture late into the season.
Right shoulder capsule inflammation limited Musgrove to just 17 starts a season ago, part of what was almost certainly the most disappointing season in Padres history.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaJoe Musgrove, Curveball and Elevated Fastball Individual Pitches + Overlay
Love Segura’s face after that curveball/swing and Musgrove’s smile back. đ
Then Musgrove throws an elevated FB tunneled with it. pic.twitter.com/1yOtrYRfYs
With that said, since joining the Padres in 2021, Musgrove is 31-19 with a 3.05 ERA and 3.62 FIP, with two seasons of 180-plus innings on his resume. The hometown favorite also has the only no-hitter in franchise history. San Diego saw quite the exodus of pitching talent this past offseason, but a healthy Musgrove and Yu Darvish should still form one of the better one-two punches in the league.
14. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros17 of 30
Adam Hunger/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 41
2023 Stats: 13-8, 162.1 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 144 K’s, 3.3 WAR
It’s difficult to balance the fact that Justin Verlander is one of the greatest pitchers of all time and a surefire future Hall of Famer with the fact that he turned 41 in February. Sure, there are examples of pitchers such as Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan remaining elite into their 40s. But they are few and far between, even among pitchers with Cooperstown-worthy resumes.
A year ago, it was impossible to not have Verlander atop a list like this. He was the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and just landed a two-year, $86.7 million deal from the New York Mets.
Verlander would ultimately make just 16 starts in a Mets uniform, beginning the campaign on the injured list with a shoulder problem. During what turned out to be a lost season, the Mets pivoted midseason and traded Verlander back to the Astros, with whom it always felt like he should finish his career.
Over 27 starts last season, Verlander posted a 3.22 ERA and 3.85 FIP, so he was still quite effective. At this stage of his career, though, he’s more likely to be a 160- to 170-inning-per-season starter as opposed to the pitcher who logged 200 or more innings on 12 occasions.
ZiPS projects he’ll post a 3.85 ERA and 4.33 FIP over 147 innings in 2024. That may be a bit pessimistic, but this is Verlander’s 19th MLB season. It’s not unfair to be cautious in terms of expectations from year to year on Verlander this deep into his career, especially considering he’s been dealing with a shoulder injury and will start the year on the IL.
He and Framber Valdez should still make up one of the better one-two punches in the sport once Verlander returns.
13. Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox18 of 30
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 7-9, 177 IP, 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 214 K’s, 3.7 WAR
Cease is going to walk some batters and throw his fair share of wild pitches, but when he’s on, as he was during the 2022 season, he is one of the more gifted pitchers in the sport.
The 4.58 ERA and 97 ERA+ (100 is the league average) that Cease posted a year ago represented an underwhelming follow-up to his 2022 campaign, which saw him post a 2.20 ERA and finish second in AL Cy Young Award voting. However, Cease still logged 177 innings in 2023, and his 3.72 FIP suggests he may have been better than his back-of-the-baseball-card stats lead you to believe.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaDylan Cease’s 2 Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/O9PPdCp8h4
Cease has been the subject of trade speculation all offseason, though it appears that he is going to open the 2024 campaign with the White Sox. But given that he can’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season, Cease is going to be a very popular trade target for contenders this summer if he rebounds, because they would be landing his services for two pennant runs.
12. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers19 of 30
Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 27
2023 Stats: 7-3, 80.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 102 K’s, 3.3 WAR
It can be argued based on how Skubal has looked over the last two seasonsâand, for that matter, in spring trainingâthat he should be even higher on this list. Probably the only reason Skubal isn’t in the top 10 is because for as impressive as he’s been since the start of 2022 season, he’s only pitched 198 innings over that period.
But man, Skubal has been incredible when he’s been on the mound over the last two years, posting a 3.23 ERA and 2.57 FIP. His 3.3 WAR from the Fourth of July on last season was the top mark among all qualified starting pitchers in baseball.
Chris Brown @ChrisBrown0914Tarik Skubal hit 99 twice last season, topping out at 99.2 mph. He threw two pitches harder than that last inning. pic.twitter.com/y0QkkyD8ih
All Skubal has done so far this spring is come back throwing harder than ever, a scary proposition for opposing hitters who have already struggled to hit him the last two seasons.
Given that Skubal is a veteran of both Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery, throwing this hard in Grapefruit League play does give you some pause. Yet if he’s able to stay healthy, he could become a key figure in the AL Cy Young race in 2024.
11. Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals20 of 30
Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 34
2023 Stats: 8-8, 184 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 183 strikeouts, 5.3 WAR
Sonny Gray was very disappointing in parts of two seasons with the New York Yankees, posting a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP after a trade with the Oakland Athletics in July 2017.
But over the five seasons since he departed the Bronx, Gray has reestablished himself as one of the better pitchers in the game, splitting the last half decade with the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins. 2023 proved to be the finest season of Gray’s career to date, as he led baseball in both FIP (2.83) and HR/9 (0.4), ultimately finishing runner-up to Gerrit Cole in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Just Baseball @JustBB_MediaSonny Gray has 12 (!!!) strikeouts today against Houston! pic.twitter.com/pcRr9qGMIs
Gray’s career year earned him a three-year, $75 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, which includes a full no-trade clause and a $30 million vesting option for 2027.
Unfortunately, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told reporters Tuesday that Gray has a mild hamstring strain and that it will be a challenge for him to be ready for Opening Day. Still, the three-time All-Star will soon anchor a revamped rotation in St. Louis, which also added veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson in free agency.
10. Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners21 of 30
Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 31
2023 Stats: 14-9, 197 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 219 strikeouts, 3.4 WAR
In his first full season with the Seattle Mariners, Luis Castillo struck out 219 batters and logged 197 innings, en route to a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Castillo has struck out 893 batters. Over that period, only Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer and Lucas Giolito have recorded more strikeouts.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaLuis Castillo’s 5Ks thru 2. đȘ pic.twitter.com/cpcOheqmdO
Shortly after the Mariners acquired him in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, they inked Castillo to a five-year, $108 million extension. While it’s often difficult to predict how president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners will act from year to year, Castillo has about as much security as you can for a Seattle player. His contract includes a full no-trade clause from 2023 to 2025 and a $1 million trade assignment bonus from 2025 to 2027.
9. Pablo LĂłpez, Minnesota Twins22 of 30
David Berding/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 11-8, 194 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 234 strikeouts, 4.5 WAR
Luis ArrĂĄez won the AL batting title as a member of the Twins in 2022, and went on to capture the NL batting title with the Miami Marlins in 2023. Still, by the end of Pablo LĂłpez’s first season in Minnesota, it was clear why the Twins were willing to part with the best contact hitter in the sport today.
LĂłpez logged 194 innings pitched in his first campaign with the Twins, marking the second consecutive season he finished with at least 180 frames logged. Among AL pitchers, only Toronto’s Kevin Gausman had more strikeouts than LĂłpez, who finished the season at 234.
Just Baseball @JustBB_MediaPablo LĂłpez sets a career high with his 12th K of the night! pic.twitter.com/TMmZrwxmHf
The Twins wisely signed LĂłpez to a four-year, $73.5 million extension last April. The pact bought out LĂłpez’s final year of arbitration eligibility of 2024 and will keep him in Minnesota for three additional seasons. Had LĂłpez played out his final arbitration season of 2024 and become a free agent, he likely would have garnered $150 million over a long-term deal in free agency.
With Gray out of the picture, this was an easy call.
8. Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs23 of 30
Joe Sargent/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 16-5, 173.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 176 strikeouts, 4.9 WAR
Steele emerged as one of baseball’s elite left-handed starters a season ago, making his first All-Star Game appearance and finishing fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaJustin Steele, Fastball/Slider Overlay pic.twitter.com/AmlrRwjWLq
The southpaw was particularly effective in liming home runs, as he allowed just 14 home runs over 173.1 innings pitched. Steele’s 0.7 HR/9 was the top mark among all pitchers in the senior circuit.
Steele is also one of the best values in the league currently, as he’ll make just $4 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility. The 28-year-old can’t become a free agent until after the 2027 season, so he figures to be atop Chicago’s rotation for some time.
7. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants24 of 30
Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 27
2023 Stats: 11-13, 216 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 194 strikeouts, 4.9 WAR
Webb seems to be consistently overlooked in these discussions, but since the start of the 2021 season, only five starting pitchersâAaron Nola and four others yet to be unveiled on this listâhave topped his 13.1 WAR.
2023 was Webb’s finest campaign yet, as he led the sport in innings pitched (216) while topping the NL in BB/9 (1.3) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.26). Webb finished runner-up to Snell in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaLogan Webb, K’ing the Side. đžïž
8th, 9th and 10th Ks. pic.twitter.com/3JhJK9ekPv
Webb is entering the first season of a five-year, $90 million extension, which currently looks like one of the most team-friendly deals in the sport. Given both his age and workhorse ability, Webb likely could have asked for a deal worth $200-plus million had he become a free agent after the 2023 campaign.
6. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays25 of 30
Logan Riely/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 33
2023 Stats: 12-9, 185 IP, 3.16 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 237 strikeouts, 5.3 WAR
It took the 2012 No. 4 overall pick some time to figure things out at the major league level, but over the last three seasons, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the sport.
He’s coming off a third-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, and he led all pitchers in the junior circuit in strikeouts (237) while finishing in a tie with Gray for the highest WAR (5.3).
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffFirst 6 outs of the game?
All strikeouts from Kevin Gausman đ„ @BlueJayspic.twitter.com/SAhZGg8cAf
The Giants erred in letting Gausman walk in free agency after the 2021 season, as he emerged as one of the game’s better starters. They could have had him and Webb together over the long term. Instead, Gausman went to Toronto on what now looks like a very team-friendly five-year, $110 million deal.
5. Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks26 of 30
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 28
2023 Stats: 17-9, 210 IP, 3.47 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 220 strikeouts, 5.2 WAR
Gallen posted his second consecutive top-five finish in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, finishing third behind Snell and the aforementioned Webb. Over the last two seasons, Gallen is 29-13 with a 3.04 ERA and 3.16 FIP across 65 starts.
His six postseason starts, as evidenced by his 4.54 playoff ERA, were a mixed bag. Nonetheless, Gallen had some big moments last October helping the Diamondbacks to go on a Cinderella run to the World Series.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffHUGE strikeout for Zac Gallen and the DBacks đ€ pic.twitter.com/Eep2CJiuvv
Gallen, a Scott Boras client, is ticking toward free agency, which he’ll be eligible for after the 2025 season. He’ll be on the right side of 30 when he hits the open market, and if he continues to pitch how he has over the last two seasons, Gallen is going to become a very wealthy man in two years.
4. Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles27 of 30
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Age in 2024: 29
2023 Stats: 10-8, 193.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 200 strikeouts, 3.4 WAR
The New York Yankees acquiring Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres is the most impactful AL East addition this offseason, but the Baltimore Orioles landing Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers isn’t far behind.
In Burnes, the Oriolesâa team that won 101 games a season agoâhave added a former NL Cy Young winner who is at the height of his powers.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffOf course Corbin Burnes strikes out the first batter he faces in Orioles colors đźâđš @MLB pic.twitter.com/ozbVLv15GD
Whether a new ownership group in Baltimore will be willing to make a $250 million-plus investment to keep Burnes from reaching free agency next winter will be an interesting storyline. But even if Burnes is only an Oriole for a season, he has a chance to help the franchise to win their first World Series title since 1983 this upcoming season.
3. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves28 of 30
Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 25
2023 Stats: 20-5, 186.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 281 strikeouts, 5.5 WAR
Strider has emerged as the most electric pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons, a period over which he’s tied for the league lead in wins (31) while leading all starters in strikeouts (483) and finishing second in WAR (10.4).
Whether you like old-school stats, new metrics or some combination, this much isn’t arguableâStrider is filthy.
Just Baseball @JustBB_MediaA fastball is not supposed to look like thisâŠ
Spencer Strider is a special pitcher. pic.twitter.com/PfeyBtsWVi
Like seemingly every star on the Braves, Strider is signed to a laughably team-friendly contract, a six-year, $75 million deal that runs through the 2028 season and includes a $22 million club option for 2029.
Strider is a veteran of Tommy John surgery, and it is fair to wonder whether he’ll hold up physically over the long run. But for now, the Braves have one of the elite starters in the sport signed to a contract where he’s paid like Taijuan Walker or Jameson Taillon.
2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies29 of 30
Rich Schultz/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 34
2023 Stats: 13-6, 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 212 strikeouts, 5.9 WAR
For as well as the first five years of Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal have gone for the Philadelphia Phillies, Zack Wheeler’s free-agent deal looks even more team-friendly.
Over the first four seasons of a five-year, $118 million deal with the Phillies, Wheeler is 43-25 with a 2.90 FIP and a 19.3 WAR, the top mark among all starting pitchers over that period.
Additionally, Wheeler has been tremendous in the postseason for the Phillies, posting a 2.42 ERA across 63.1 innings the last two years. That postseason success broke the tie with Striderâwho has a 5.40 ERA in his first three playoff startsâfor the No. 2 spot on this list.
Phillies Nation @PhilliesNationZack Wheeler has six strikeouts in two innings. đ€ą
[Via @PitchingNinja] pic.twitter.com/ObXFKsleUs
2024 will be the final season of Wheeler’s team-friendly deal, before a more lucrative three-year, $126 million extension that pays him like one of the five best pitchers kicks in. There is risk in investing in a power pitcher into his mid-30s, but Wheeler has been so good over his first four seasons in Philadelphia that him finishing his career on any team other than the Phillies would have been unthinkable.
1. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees30 of 30
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Age in 2024: 33
2023 Stats: 15-4, 209 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 222 strikeouts, 5.2 WAR
Cole was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2019 and 2021, and you can argue in the first of those two seasons, he was more deserving of the honor than his then-Houston Astros teammate Verlander.
In any event, after five previous top-five finishes in Cy Young voting, Cole finally got over the hump in 2023. All he did was lead the junior circuit in ERA (2.63), complete-game shutouts (two), ERA+ (165), WHIP (0.981), H/9 (6.8) and innings pitched (209).
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffYour 2023 AL Cy Young is Gerrit Cole âŸïž pic.twitter.com/Z7f1tjKlVe
2024 will be the fifth season of Cole’s nine-year, $324 million free-agent deal, which thus far has been a rousing success. He can opt out of the remaining four years and $144 million on his contract after this campaign, forcing the Yankees to either guarantee a 10th season (2029) at $36 million or let him become a free agent. It’s a no-brainer for general manager Brian Cashman to tack on the 10th season, assuring Cole finishes his Hall of Fame career in pinstripes.
