Predicting the Most Active Teams at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline
Tim KellyJuly 5, 2024Predicting the Most Active Teams at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline0 of 14
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MLB trade rumor season might start in June, but it doesn’t really heat up until July. More specifics begin to emerge on which clubs are committed to selling and which buyers have interest in their top potential trade chips.
Now that the calendar has officially flipped to trade season, we’ve compiled the teams that project to be the most active in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, either as buyers or sellers.
The Obvious Sellers1 of 14
White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr.Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Miami Marlins already traded two-time batting champion Luis Arráez to the San Diego Padres, so they figure to continue selling. LHP Jesús Luzardo is perhaps having too much of an injury-riddled season to be traded, but closer Tanner Scott, first baseman Josh Bell and corner outfielder Bryan De La Cruz are among those who should move.
The Chicago White Sox should be as active as any seller as well. While USA Today’s Bob Nightengale recently suggested that the White Sox may not trade Luis Robert Jr., he’s bound to have a ton of suitors. So is LHP Garrett Crotchet, whom Nightengale says is expected to be dealt. RHP Erick Fedde, closer Michael Kopech, shortstop Paul DeJong and outfielder Tommy Pham could also be traded.
The Los Angeles Angels probably aren’t going to trade three-time AL MVP Mike Trout, who is hoping to return from his left meniscus tear right around the trade deadline. They may not get a franchise-altering return at the trade deadline, but it’s still a fair bet that veterans like outfielder Kevin Pillar, third baseman Luis Rengifo, reliever Matt Moore, left fielder Taylor Ward, LHP Tyler Anderson and reliever Luis GarcÃa will have new homes on Aug. 1.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffRandy Arozarena really just scored from second base on a wild pitch 😳
(via @RaysBaseball)pic.twitter.com/xL5DeJPjQ3
While the Tampa Bay Rays are still within striking distance in the AL wild-card race, their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries, so they could take advantage of a seller’s market. First baseman Yandy DÃaz and outfielder Randy Arozarena have had down years, but being inserted into a pennant race could give them a jolt. Pete Fairbanks and Garrett Cleavinger are among the relievers in Tampa’s bullpen who should draw interest. If RHP Zach Eflin is healthy, he should be of interest to starter-needy contenders as well.
Elsewhere in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays are pretty clear sellers as well. It’s just a matter of how much they’re willing to wave the white flag. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette are being most closely watched, but they may very well remain in Toronto. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, reliever Trevor Richards, DH Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier might be the best bets to be dealt. In between those two groups are RHPs Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassit, both of whom would likely be of interest to just about every contender.
The Chicago Cubs could play their way out of being a seller, and potentially even add. But even in one of the weaker NL playoff pictures ever, the Cubs don’t look like a team that’s built for October. If they do decide to sell, Cody Bellinger will have suitors. Left fielder Ian Happ and reliever Héctor Neris should be of interest to contenders, too.
Finally, the Oakland Athletics might resist trading star closer Mason Miller, but teams will be interested in other players on their roster. It’s unclear whether the A’s would want to give up multiple years of control in outfielders Brent Rooker and JJ Bleday, but it’s worth the call if you’re a contender. Veteran IF/OF Miguel Andujar feels like a lock to be traded, and the A’s are likely to get calls on relievers T.J. McFarland and Michael Kelly as well.
Teams That Could Stand Pat/Tweak Around the Edges2 of 14
Red Sox closer Kenley JansenDylan Buell/Getty Images
The Boston Red Sox have probably played too well to trade players like left fielder Tyler O’Neill, closer Kenley Jansen and RHP Nick Pivetta. But they are still a distant third in the AL East, so they could make a minor rental addition or two without messing with the future.
Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown has been adamant that they will not be sellers, which makes sense considering how alive they are in the AL West. But just because the Astros won’t trade RHP Justin Verlander and third baseman Alex Bregman doesn’t mean they should be super active before July 30. Any addition would ideally be under contract for 2025, but it may make sense to ride things out with this group one last time, knowing that some sort of retool is coming in the not-so-distant future.
The St. Louis Cardinals don’t seem likely to trade closer Ryan Helsley or first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, among others, while they are still in the NL Central race. But Sonny Gray is probably the only starter who belongs on a postseason mound, and both Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have struggled in 2024. This isn’t a team worth going all-in on.
You could make the case that the New York Mets would be best served by moving first baseman Pete Alonso now for a return, even if they intend to try to sign him in free agency in the winter. But for as coveted as Alonso would be as a rental, the Mets would need to nosedive in the coming weeks to convince their fanbase that selling is the way to go. Owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns might just stand pat and see if this team can sneak into the playoffs. Even if the Mets buy, don’t expect them to make any trades that require them to give up significant prospect capital.
Last year’s NL champions, the Arizona Diamondbacks, are interesting. Free-agent-to-be Christian Walker would be a welcome addition to the trade market. But if a few things break the right way for the Snakes in the second half of the summer—like outfielder Corbin Carroll and LHP Jordan Montgomery rebounding—they could still sneak into the playoffs for the second year in a row. Hoping for some internal improvements and better health in their starting rotation might be the wisest strategy for the D-backs.
Baltimore Orioles3 of 14
RHP Corbin BurnesMitchell Layton/Getty Images
The Baltimore Orioles have built an incredible pipeline of young talent, so they may be tempted to operate this summer like they’re still at the front of their World Series window. There’s a very real possibility that’s the case.
However, ace Corbin Burnes can become a free agent after this season. While it would be wise for the Orioles to sign him beyond 2024, there’s no guarantee he’ll be back next year.
So, the 2024 Orioles may be better set up to be a World Series contender than the 2025 squad, which may up the ante for them ahead of the trade deadline.
With Kyle Bradish out for the season because of Tommy John surgery, adding another front-line starter should be the Orioles’ top priority. Not far behind that should be upgrading over closer Craig Kimbrel, who has largely pitched well for the O’s but has a history of running out of gas in October. That may be difficult, though, particularly if Mason Miller, Kenley Jansen and Ryan Helsley don’t get traded.
Los Angeles Dodgers4 of 14
Shohei Ohtani and Freddie FreemanJoe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be without Mookie Betts for an extended period as he recovers from a fractured hand that he suffered in mid-June. When he returns, he’ll rejoin a lineup that includes Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández, arguably the best quartet in MLB.
With that said, the Dodgers probably need to add another infielder, ideally one capable of playing both middle infield positions and third base. That would give them flexibility with Betts once he comes back, and insurance if Max Muncy has a setback in his recovery from a right oblique strain.
Even with Andy Pages and Jason Heyward playing relatively well, imagine if this Dodgers lineup added another impact outfielder via trade (assuming Betts playing in right field upon his return isn’t a possibility).
It’s difficult to know what to make of the Dodgers’ starting rotation. Tyler Glasnow has been a workhorse this season, but he’s going to be near his career high in innings pitched by the All-Star Break. Bobby Miller hasn’t hit his stride since returning from an IL stint that was caused by right shoulder inflammation.
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler also on the IL, the Dodgers probably need to add another starter as well.
Seattle Mariners5 of 14
J.P. Crawford and Julio RodrÃguezStephen Brashear/Getty Images
The Seattle Mariners have a top-five pitching staff, but they might have a bottom-five lineup. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto needs to overhaul the latter, or they’ll risk wasting a World Series-caliber rotation.
Julio RodrÃguez and J.P. Crawford will likely get better results in the second half of the season, but that alone won’t be enough. Offseason additions Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Haniger have all been disappointments, as has first baseman Ty France. The Mariners can only count on internal improvements so much.
If Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso or Christian Walker become available, the Mariners would be as good of a fit as any team because any of them would add much-needed thump to their lineup. Though he would have to shift to a corner outfield spot, Luis Robert Jr. would be a fit from an offensive sense as well.
Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in June that the Mariners “plan to be aggressive with their push for some kind of offensive addition.” Frankly, they need to be.
Cleveland Guardians6 of 14
Steven Kwan and José RamÃrezMike Lawrie/Getty Images
The Cleveland Guardians have one of the five best records in baseball. In theory, they should be all-in as they July 30 trade deadline approaches.
Whether they’ll have the financial blessing from ownership and the willingness to deal from their farm system in a significant way is less clear.
The No. 1 need for a Guardians team with a dominant bullpen and the No. 6 offense in terms of runs scored is in the starter rotation. Heck, the No. 2 and No. 3 needs may be in the starting rotation.
The Guardians lost former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber for the season in April. While Ben Lively is having a career year and Tanner Bibee continues to impress after finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year Award voting last season, they’re ill-equipped for a postseason series right now.
If Kevin Gausman turns around what’s been a disappointing season and the Blue Jays are willing to trade him, he would be a good fit in Cleveland. The same goes for his Toronto teammate Chris Bassitt, one of the steadiest pitchers in the sport. Yusei Kikuchi is probably going to be dealt, too.
While the Guardians could stand to add at DH, they probably need to acquire two starting pitchers. Landing a pitcher who could start Game 2 of a postseason series behind Bibee would be smart, and then supplementing that addition with a back-end starter like Michael Lorenzen would make sense.
Philadelphia Phillies7 of 14
Cristopher SánchezJeff Dean/Getty Images
The Philadelphia Phillies have a World Series-caliber rotation, particularly since Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez are pitching at as high of a level as Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola this season. But they still need to put some finishing touches on their roster to get over the hump after consecutive deep playoff runs.
Philadelphia needs to add to the outfield in some way, though it remains to be seen to what extent.
Nick Castellanos had a disastrous start to the year, but he posted an .810 OPS in June and is in the third season of a five-year, $100 million deal. He’ll likely continue to play just about every day in right field.
Brandon Marsh is capable in center field and very good defensively in left field, and he has an .875 OPS against right-handed pitchers. However, he has only a .400 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Johan Rojas flashed the potential to be baseball’s best defender last year, but he hasn’t matched that performance in 2024, nor has he taken a big step forward offensively or properly utilized his speed when on the bases.
Phillies Nation @PhilliesNationThere’s something about Nick Castellanos in those powder blues… pic.twitter.com/Ur2U8t0voP
At a minimum, the Phillies need to add a right-handed hitting outfielder who’s capable of spelling Marsh against lefties and adding some thump.
The best-case scenario is adding Luis Robert Jr., though it’s fair to wonder if the Phillies, who finally have a respectable farm system, will want to gut it to trade for a player with an injury history. Perhaps more realistic is adding a corner outfielder like Taylor Ward, Lane Thomas, Ian Happ or Brent Rooker.
Marsh and Rojas could then platoon in center field. Late in games, the Phillies could opt to have Rojas in center field and Marsh in left for their optimal defensive setup.
Texas Rangers8 of 14
RHP David RobertsonSam Hodde/Getty Images
One way or another, the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers are going to be active before the July 30 trade deadline. They’re currently nine games below .500, though, so selling may prove to make the most sense for general manager Chris Young.
If the Rangers sold, veteran relievers Kirby Yates and David Robertson have each had strong seasons. Starters Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney are all impending free agents who would have suitors if they get made available.
The Rangers probably aren’t going to trade slugger Adolis GarcÃa, who is under team control through the 2026 season. That won’t stop contenders from at least placing a call and asking about him anyway, though.
The flip side is that one good week would put the Rangers back in the mix for both the AL West and AL wild-card races. There’s certainly a scenario where Texas gets back Josh Jung, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter and still makes the postseason.
However, it doesn’t feel like things are trending in that direction.
Atlanta Braves9 of 14
Austin Riley and Matt OlsonAndrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Three years ago, the Atlanta Braves remade their outfield before the trade deadline in the absence of Ronald Acuña Jr. That led to a World Series parade that fall.
Season-ending injuries for Acuña and ace Spencer Strider could have the Braves look to run that same formula back.
In 2021, the Braves acquired Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson to help reshape their outfield. They don’t need three outfielders this time around, but a starting right fielder and a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who could platoon with Jarred Kelenic would drastically improve their lineup.
Atlanta also likely needs to add another pitcher who’s capable of taking the ball in a postseason series. Even if Chris Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo López stay healthy, the Braves will need a fourth starter at some point in October. It also shouldn’t be assumed that all three will be healthy in a few months.
Even having lost arguably the two best players on their team, the Braves could very well make another World Series run if they make the right moves before the trade deadline and Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II have big second halves.
New York Yankees10 of 14
Gerrit Cole and Aaron JudgeNew York Yankees/Getty Images
The New York Yankees have the best one-two lineup punch in baseball with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but the depth beyond them is alarming. Additionally, there’s reason to be concerned about their starting rotation.
For as successful as the Yankees have been to this point, they need to be active before the trade deadline to even edge out the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.
Given how underwhelming both Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu have been, adding an impact corner infielder should be a priority for the Yankees this summer. Luis Rengifo is having a strong year for the Los Angeles Angels and could be a good fit. He’s capable of playing third base and second base, where Gleyber Torres has also disappointed.
The starting rotation did an amazing job of surviving without reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole for the first two-and-a-half months of the season, but it’s fair to be concerned about the durability of this group.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffAaron Judge with a SLAM to cut the lead to two 💥
(via @Yankees)pic.twitter.com/y5E2W8kMBW
Beyond the fact that Cole only recently returned from an elbow injury, Luis Gil’s innings will have to be limited at some point this year, perhaps to the point where the veteran of Tommy John surgery moves to the bullpen. Additionally, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes all had injury-riddled seasons a year ago, so expecting each to make 30-plus starts this year would be a mistake.
Realistically, the Yankees would be smart to add a Game 2 postseason starter behind Cole. Jack Flaherty has hardly been an iron man in his career, but he has reclaimed his ace status for the Detroit Tigers. As a rental, he would be a strong fit.
The top-end talent on the Yankees is World Series caliber, particularly if Cole hits his stride. But to avoid a 2022-esque season—New York went 35-35 in the second half of that season after 64-28 start—there’s work to be done.
Milwaukee Brewers11 of 14
Freddy PeraltaRonald Martinez/Getty Images
It’s fair to wonder if the Milwaukee Brewers have enough pitching to hold onto the top spot in the NL Central for the entire season.
The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles in February. Two-time All-Star Brandon Woodruff is out for the season. Even Freddy Peralta’s career high in innings is 165.2, which Milwaukee will likely need him to blow past to hold onto the division lead.
After Peralta, the Brewers have little in the way of pitchers with track records.
Colin Rea has had a nice season, but he’s never thrown more than 125 innings in a season. The Brewers probably would like to be careful with how much they push rookie Tobias Myers, too. In other words, they may need to add two starting pitchers before July 30.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaTrevor Megill’s 3Ks. pic.twitter.com/cnghlY7Qg1
The good news for the Brewers is that their bullpen has been excellent without All-Star closer Devin Williams, who is expected to return in the second half of the season from stress fractures in his back. If you add Williams back to a group where both Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson have been elite this season, the Brewers might have the best bullpen in baseball.
On top of that, now is as good of a time as any to win with a lineup that features Christian Yelich, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins. So, there’s real pressure for Milwaukee to add multiple starters.
Something like acquiring Nathan Eovaldi from the Texas Rangers and Erick Fedde from the Chicago White Sox would make the Brewers a scary team.
Kansas City Royals12 of 14
Bobby Witt Jr.Kyle Rivas/Getty Images
It will be interesting to see how the Kansas City Royals act in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. The top-end talent on their roster—Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Pérez, Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans—is really good. But other areas need to be overhauled.
The Royals arguably need to upgrade at all three outfield positions, along with the DH spot. That won’t all happen during the season. But if the Royals added Joc Pederson and Tommy Pham, for example, that would be a notable upgrade at two of those spots without breaking the bank.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffBOBBY WITT JR. JUST WENT 468 FEET 😱
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/hmJSHa6WUr
It’s important for the Royals not just to break the bank on the lineup, because their bullpen has a 4.26 ERA. They won’t overhaul the entire bullpen this month, but veterans like David Robertson, Héctor Neris and Andrew Chafin could be worthwhile rental additions.
While the starting rotation duo of Lugo and Ragans could make the Royals dangerous in a short series, they have enough holes that they probably won’t make it to the World Series. Still, it would be a big accomplishment for them to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 after winning only 56 games last season. That’s a realistic goal.
San Diego Padres13 of 14
Sam Hodde/Getty Images
Regardless of the circumstances, Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller is almost always going to be aggressive. When you consider that San Diego is currently in control of the second wild-card spot in the NL and there’s been some speculation that Preller might be on the hot seat, don’t expect this summer to be any different.
Preller acquired RHP Dylan Cease from the White Sox in March, and struck on the biggest trade of the 2024 season thus far when he traded for two-time batting champion Luis Arráez from the Marlins in May.
So what’s next for the Padres?
Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that San Diego has interest in going back to the well with the White Sox, this time intrigued by LHP Garrett Crochet, who may be the top pitcher on the market.
Whether it’s Crochet or someone else, bolstering the starting rotation will probably be the No. 1 focus of Preller, considering both Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are currently on the injured list.
San Diego Padres14 of 14
Sam Hodde/Getty Images
Regardless of the circumstances, Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller is almost always going to be aggressive. When you consider that San Diego is currently in control of the second wild-card spot in the NL and there’s been some speculation that Preller might be on the hot seat, don’t expect this summer to be any different.
Preller acquired RHP Dylan Cease from the White Sox in March, and struck on the biggest trade of the 2024 season thus far when he traded for two-time batting champion Luis Arráez from the Marlins in May.
So what’s next for the Padres?
Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that San Diego has interest in going back to the well with the White Sox, this time intrigued by LHP Garrett Crochet, who may be the top pitcher on the market.
Whether it’s Crochet or someone else, bolstering the starting rotation will probably be the No. 1 focus of Preller, considering both Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are currently on the injured list.
But don’t assume that Preller won’t go outside the box if he sees the chance to acquire a star at another position, whether it’s White Sox outfielder Luis Robert, A’s closer Mason Miller or someone we haven’t even considered.
