Predicting The Next NBA Head Coach to Be Fired

Predicting The Next NBA Head Coach to Be Fired0 of 5

Jacque VaughnSarah Stier/Getty Images

This isn’t a fun topic. Scenarios in which fans or analysts would revel in an NBA coach losing his job should be exceptionally rare.

However, the Brooklyn Nets’ dismissal of Jacque Vaughn on Monday has brought this discussion to the forefront. And that move wasn’t far behind the firings of Adrian Griffin from the Milwaukee Bucks and Wes Unseld Jr. from the Washington Wizards.

Now, it’s time to speculate on who might be next.

Typically, this is a little late to let go of a coach (though the Nets just disproved that idea), so we’re likely looking more at offseason splits.

And again, this is more speculation than advocating. The slides below aren’t on who should be fired between now and the start of the 2024-25 campaign, but rather, who might be.

Chauncey Billups1 of 5

Chauncey BillupsAlika Jenner/Getty Images

The Portland Trail Blazers have been a bit more competitive than expected for limited stretches this season, but Chauncey Billups is on track for his third straight sub-.500 season.

His career winning percentage is a woeful .344. And while that has a lot to do with a roster that generally hasn’t been built to compete and a number of significant injuries, his coaching record in games that Damian Lillard played was just 39-48.

Typically, it’s not fair to lay the struggles of young players at the feet of the head coach—at least not entirely. Front offices feature the final decision-makers on draft picks and other acquisitions, and they also hire player development staffs.

But Billups has to oversee that development, and Shaedon Sharpe is in the middle of his second straight season with a way-below-average box plus/minus (“…a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court.”). Scoot Henderson’s minus-6.3 box plus/minus is tied for 937th among the 944 three-point-era rookie campaigns of at least 1,000 minutes.

Sharpe’s return from injury before this season ends may be in doubt, but if Henderson doesn’t show some consistent, meaningful improvement, whispers about Billups’ job security might get a little louder.

Jason Kidd2 of 5

Jason KiddRon Jenkins/Getty Images

There may not be a ton of offense to implement when Luka Dončić is on your team. Usually, just giving him the ball and letting him isolate or run pick-and-roll is going to lead to tons of points.

But the 24-year-old’s stints with the Slovenia national team have shown he’s willing to do a bit more off the ball when properly motivated (or coached). And the Dallas Mavericks have at least one other offensive superstar in Kyrie Irving who could facilitate more actions.

However, the bigger issue may be the Mavericks posting a below-average defensive rating for the second season in a row. If you’re going to have an often unimaginative attack, it’d be nice to have a strong defense to fall back on. Dallas doesn’t have that.

Of course, as is the case with Billups, plenty of this has to do with the roster that the organization has given Kidd to work with. And the recent additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington could push the team in the right direction.

But Dončić is one of the four or five best basketball players in the world. And there’s at least a chance he’ll miss the playoffs for a second straight season.

If that happens, there will be plenty of blame to go around, but you can bet most of the fingers will be pointed at Kidd.

Steve Clifford3 of 5

Steve CliffordDavid Jensen/Getty Images

Steve Clifford was ostensibly brought back to the Charlotte Hornets in something of a win-now move. He’s never been touted as a player development specialist.

And in the mid-2010s, he did get a little more out of the Al Jefferson- and Kemba Walker-led Charlotte teams than others may have.

However, he hasn’t moved the needle much in that direction during his second stint with this team. The defensive-minded coach is currently overseeing the second-worst defense in NBA history (only this season’s Atlanta Hawks are worse).

The “but scoring is up to outrageous, historic levels throughout the league” caveat is fair to bring up, but the numbers are the numbers. And Charlotte is surrendering a whopping 121.0 points per 100 possessions.

That’s abysmal. And if the Hornets are going to be abysmal, they might as well bring in a coach known more for player development.

Darvin Ham4 of 5

Darvin HamJeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

Few coaches this season have faced as much speculation over job security as Darvin Ham. And while it has certainly subsided a bit during the Los Angeles Lakers’ current 8-3 stretch, that’s an organization and fanbase that expects title contention.

L.A. is ninth in the West (on the wrong half of the play-in tournament). And Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report (“based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season, including the play-in round”) gives the Lakers just a 32.7 percent chance to make the postseason.

If they crash and burn in the play-in round (they’re currently slated to play the Golden State Warriors in the first game), the volume of complaints about Ham’s coaching will get turned up again.

Whether it’s his overreliance on Taurean Prince, general confusion over other lineup decisions, the lack of outside shooting (L.A. is 30th in three-point attempts per game) or an overall offense that can bog down if D’Angelo Russell isn’t throwing flames, there are plenty of reasons for gripes.

Monty Williams5 of 5

Monty WilliamsChristian Petersen/Getty Images

The Detroit Pistons just signed Monty Williams to a mind-blowing contract this past summer. He’s only in the first season of a six-year, $78.5 million deal.

That alone makes firing him feel less likely. Paying that much money to someone to stay home would be tough for any owner to stomach. But the Pistons are currently on track for the ninth-worst single-season winning percentage in NBA history. And that’s after a 5-7 stretch in January and February.

This amount of losing almost begs fans and analysts to question how long Williams will be around, but there are other issues.

Cade Cunningham’s development has seemingly stagnated. He’s posting a worse box plus/minus in 2023-24 than he did last season. The refusal to play Jaden Ivey in a more prominent role was bizarre, as was the insistence on starting Killian Hayes (who’s now been cut).

Another historic losing streak isn’t out of the question (they lost 28 in a row earlier this season). If that happens, there’s a chance Detroit gives up on this six-year deal after the first campaign.