Premier League picks, predictions: How will Arsenal line up without Martin Odegaard against Tottenham?

With the North London Derby on the horizon, Mikel Arteta was in customarily obtuse form when asked to address Martin Odegaard’s availability for Arsenal’s visit to Tottenham.

“We need some more tests so let’s see what happens in the next day or so,” Arteta said of Odegaard, who limped out of Norway’s Nations League game against Austria on Monday with an ankle injury. “Let’s see what happens, what the extent of the injury is and how quickly we can get him back. He’s super positive about everything. We know Martin – he wants to be there every single day but we have to wait and see.

“He’s willing, there’s no question about that. He wants to be present every game and obviously in a big game like this one, but we need to make sure that we know first of all how good he can be or not.

“Players with 48 hours to go are always available, but let’s see what happens.”

If Norway’s team doctor is to be believed, however, there is no real chance of Odegaard being available not only for the derby but two further crucial away matches in the seven days that follow, trips to Atalanta in the Champions League (you can catch all the action across Paramount+, CBS Sports Network, and CBS Sports Golazo Network) and Manchester City. That latter serves as an opportunity to add jet power to Arsenal’s title charge. How much more favorable might their chances look with one of the Premier League’s best creators in their XI?

That Odegaard is still being assessed four days after he picked up the injury does suggest some element of doubt over the three week minimum timeline that Ola Sand laid out, but that cuts both ways. Certainly Arsenal must prepare themselves for a meaningful spell without a player who has missed only three Premier League squads since his permanent arrival in the summer of 2021.

A familiar refrain of Arsenal’s two second placed finishes has been that they have been achieved in large part because Mikel Arteta’s side have avoided any great availability crisis. That is more than a little overstated — their transformative No.9 Gabriel Jesus has not been playing with full form and fitness for most of the last season and a half — but what is broadly true is that Arsenal have avoided a series of hammer blows in the same position. Jurrien Timber might have missed all of last season but if any club has the full back depth to cope it’s this one. Form and fitness might have deserted Gabriel Martinelli but Leandro Trossard was at his very best.

Odegaard’s absence, particularly from the north London derby, is altogether different. With Mikel Merino out for up to six more weeks and Declan Rice suspended, Arsenal looked light on numbers in midfield anyway. Now they are obliged to string together what they can from the limited player pool available to them.

The immediately obvious answer might be to replace Odegaard with the other senior player who has previously been the playmaking focal point at a top side in Kai Havertz, who ran the show for Bayer Leverkusen before moving to the Premier League. When Havertz arrived at Arsenal from Chelsea in the summer of 2023 his vision and that of the club was for him to play deeper in midfield. Circumstances change and the 25 year old is now firmly established as the Gunners’ first choice center forward. No wonder. He isn’t just more of a goal threat at the top of the pitch, he actually delivers greater creative returns too.

Havertz shines brighter up frontPer 90 Premier League minutes since 2020-21 season

Central midfield/attacking midfieldCenter forwardMinutes

2273

5206

Passes in attacking third

14.49

15.14

Chances created

1.3

1.4

Expected assists

0.11

0.12

Assists

0.08

0.22

Shots

1.98

2.58

Expected goals

0.29

0.49

Goals0.240.41Gabriel Jesus’ return to training is perhaps the only pleasant headache the international break has thrown up. Perhaps the simplest solution would be the most effective: push Havertz deeper and even if that means getting a less effective version of him that can be offset if Jesus is anything like his best self.

There are further alternatives to redeploy from the frontline. If not Havertz, perhaps Trossard could be the one nominally taking Odegaard’s place. Pair the Belgian and German and such positional designations may be of limited value. In the early months of 2024, Trossard and Havertz created merry mayhem for opposition defenders as something akin to a pair of 10s (add Odegaard to that mix as they did so impressively in obliterating West Ham and you have an almost unmarkable triumvirate). Such an approach might work quite nicely when Rice is available for selection after Sunday.

In the meantime, the obvious approach would be to bring Jorginho into the XI, perhaps stationing him a little deeper alongside Thomas Partey. Arsenal might lose some of their interconnectedness, but lining up with what would functionally be a back six and a front four might suit an occasion Tottenham will surely feel compelled to attack. Bukayo Saka had great joy on the counter during his last journey up the Seven Sisters Road, anything that affords him more opportunities like that would be a good tactical adjustment for Arsenal.

Even that is not the limit of Arsenal’s options. If Arteta wants to replicate Odegaard’s ability to slide a pass into the penalty area why not turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko? Since the latter arrived in 2022, only the Norwegian completes more passes into the box from outside it than Zinchenko’s 1.9 per 90 Premier League minutes. A more advanced role is familiar to one of Arsenal’s many, many left backs, it is much the same as he plays for Ukraine. Equally Arteta has had his chances to try him out in that spot and has reliably chosen not to.

Then there is the wildcard option. The hope at Arsenal is that Ethan Nwaneri is one day able to play alongside and even in place of Odegaard. The 17 year old, the Premier League’s youngest ever player, is highly thought of and the decision to allow both Emile Smith-Rowe and Fabio Vieira to leave, the latter on a season long loan to Portugal, was a commitment to Nwaneri. His time is coming but might a full Premier League debut at the home of Arsenal’s greatest rivals be too soon? Arteta 

“We have to adapt to that,” he said. “Through the season we’re going to have these types of situations. It happened very early since the second game. It’s the situation we have. We have to face it.

“The young kids have given us a lot of hope and a lot of right reasons to count on them. If we need to we will do it, for sure.”

There are, then, just about enough options for Arteta to keep Ange Postecoglu all the way through to Sunday afternoon. That is just what the Arsenal manager would want. One thing his Tottenham counterpart can be reasonably sure of, however, is that his opponent will not be the same team without Odegaard as they are with him. How could they be?

Scroll down for our predicted scoreline in the north London derby and every other one of today’s Premier League games:

Premier League predictionsSaturday, September 14
Southampton 1, Manchester United 3
Brighton 2, Ipswich 0
Crystal Palace 1, Leicester City 0
Fulham 1, West Ham 1
Liverpool 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Manchester City 2, Brentford 1
Aston Villa 2, Everton 0
Bournemouth 1, Chelsea 1

Sunday, September 15
Tottenham 3, Arsenal 2
Wolves 0, Newcastle 0