Press your fumble luck

The Eagles defense hasn’t given up a TD in two games. They’re top 10 in many statistical categories: points, yards, third downs, sack rate… Vic Fangio has brought the competency that has been missing.

That’s great. But they’re dead last in takeaways. One reason why is that they are one of just two teams who has yet to recover a fumble.

Bad Fumble Luck Blues
You know the saying “if it wasn’t for bad luck I’d have no luck at all”? When it comes to fumble luck, the Eagles don’t even have that. Only the Raiders have fewer forced fumbles than the Eagles, who have just two (along with the Panthers, Titans, and Dolphins).

We know that fumble recovery as a whole is mostly luck, and that where a fumble happens influences who recovers it. But to first get the breaks, you have to make the breaks, and the defense is not even doing that.

Certainly the defense could suddenly start causing a bunch of fumbles. But we can’t count on it. In the four seasons of the 17 game era, there have been two seasons where four teams had 8 or fewer fumbles, and two seasons where two teams did. Currently there are five teams with two or fewer fumbles. Only seven teams average more than one fumble per game. On the upside, this isn’t sticky from year to year, last year the Eagles had the 8th most forced fumbles.

For Every Action There Is An Equal And Opposite Reaction
The Eagles offense is pathetic early in games and amazing after that. We already knew this but it’s still kind of amazing to see it illustrated.

The Minnesota Vikings are the ying to the Eagles’ yang:

On the Vikings first two possessions they have scored 9 TDs, and punted just once. The rest of the game? 9 TDs and 25 punts.

If these two teams meet in the playoffs, which is looking increasingly unlikely as the Vikings are running back their 2016 season where they started 5-0 with a castoff former 1st round QB (Sam Bradford, lol), we could have quite a game.

Pain Lies On The Riverside
The Eagles worst winning percentage against another franchise, current or defunct, is their 0.286 mark against the Bengals. The Bengals. They’re 3-9-2 against them. They have never won in Cincinnati, they have not beaten them at all in five games, their last win was in 2000. Despite playing just 14 games, the Eagles have been swept by the Bengals in three different decades: the 70s, 80s, and 10s. Their three wins against them were by a combined 18 points. Think of the ugliest, most uninspiring, most infuriating win you can imagine. On Sunday it would be the greatest day in Cincinnati in Eagles history. Yuck.

Week 9 College Football Watch List
Oklahoma vs Ole Miss

Lousy slate of 1pm games, so let’s see what happens when two disappointing teams collide. Probably more disappointment.

Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen was the #2 recruit in 2022, behind Travis Hunter and ahead of Luther Burden. Those two have delivered, Nolen didn’t at Texas A&M, but then massive disappointment was a recurring theme in College Station the past few seasons. Now at Ole Miss, he’s started to deliver on his promise.

Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman is the high profile Sooners LB, but every time I watch him I am beyond completely unimpressed, I get annoyed watching him. Dasan McCullough however is interesting to me. He returned from injury against Texas two weeks ago and looked like, well, a guy who returned from injury. Now a couple of weeks removed from getting the rust off, I’m interested to see if he can impress.

Missouri vs Alabama

Missouri DT Chris McClellan was stuck in the rot that was Florida the last two seasons. This year at Missouri he looks the part of a 325 lb nose tackle. He leads the Tigers in tackles for loss and is second on the team in sacks. The Eagles have brought in several bottom of the depth chart DTs: Byron Young on the 53 and Gabe Hall and Siaki Ika on the practice squad, along with PJ Mustipher who was cut in camp. A run stopping DT who can play more than 12 snaps in a game is a need.

Also…

Chris McClellan, Missouri’s DT, just got a pass break up and did the “strapped in” celebration usually reserved for defensive backs….never seen a big man do that, amazing

— Dan Keegan (@keegsdotcom) August 30, 2024

Alabama is not going to be churning out a high number of draft picks this year. One reason is that they are playing underclassmen at some key positions, such as true freshman phenom Ryan Williams, and both their OTs. Another is that their draft eligible players just haven’t been impressive. I can’t get excited about any of their draft prospects this year.

LSU vs Texas A&M

LSU TE Mason Taylor, the son of Jason Taylor, is another TE having a bit of a breakout. He’s already matched last year’s production. Eerily with the exact same numbers: 36 catches for 348 yards and 1 TD. Those numbers don’t wow, but he can line up anywhere. Interesting mid round prospect.

Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss pops. He has 5 rushing TDs in his past two games, and while he isn’t a huge threat in the passing game, his catches aren’t easy dump offs in the flats, they come in the middle of the field (maybe he isn’t the right guy for Jalen Hurts). Kenneth Gainwell is scheduled to be a free agent after the season and while I like Will Shipley you can never have enough RBs. Remember 2018?