Preview: Alexei Popyrin vs. Grigor Dimitrov -to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Shanghai Masters third-round match between Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov face off in Tuesday’s Shanghai Masters third-round match in their fourth meeting on the ATP Tour.

The Australian is enjoying his deepest run at the event and seeks to outdo the experienced player, whose tournament has been beset by multiple rain delays.

Match preview
© Imago

Popyrin was winless in Shanghai heading into this year’s event after failing to make the main draw in 2019 and exiting to Matteo Arnaldi 12 months back, but he defeated Miomir Kecmanovic on Saturday to secure a first victory in the Masters 1000 tournament.

Although the 20th seed may have double-faulted twice in his 6-3, 6-2 victory over the Russian, he was rewarded for going big on serve in the triumph as he accrued 13 aces to his opponent’s four.

While he struggled on second serve points won (43%), Popyrin landing 70% of first serves prevented a sterner test in the round-two encounter.

With a superior opponent in Dimitrov coming next, the 24-year-old must play even cleaner tennis to avoid round-three elimination.

Multiple rain delays meant the Bulgarian’s tournament-opening match against Zizou Bergs was not competed until Monday, with the ninth seed needing a decider to claim a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 success against his Belgian opponent.

It remains to be seen if Popyrin’s extra days rest limits the 33-year-old’s prospects, and the 2017 quarter-finalist and semi-finalist last year can only focus on himself ahead of Tuesday’s third-round match.

However, the No. 9 seed must play improved tennis against the Australian, having landed 60% of his first serves and double-faulted six times in the round of 64 before coming through in three sets.

His competence at breaking Bergs — converting five of seven opportunities mustered — and the Belgian landing blows only three times from 12 chances possibly swung the topsy-turvy match, and Dimitrov will need to play at a superior level to have any chance of defeating his 24-year-old challenger.

Having lost two consecutive matches in succession against his third-round opponent, the 2023 semi-finalist aims to snap his losing streak in Shanghai.

Tournament so far
Alexei Popyrin:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3 6-2

Grigor Dimitrov:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Zizou Bergs 6-3 3-6 6-2

Head To Head
Canadian Open (2024) – Round of 16: Popyrin 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3

US Open (2021) – Second round: Popyrin 7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-0 ret

Melbourne (2021) – Round of 16: Dimitrov 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3

Although Dimitrov won their first meeting on tour in 2021, Popyrin’s US Open triumph that same year and recently at the Masters 1000 event in Canada see him lead 2-1.

All their match-ups have been tightly contested, underscored by their first and third encounters going to three sets and their only Grand Slam battle needing two tiebreaks before the Bulgarian retired in the third.

We say: Dimitrov to win in three sets
Although their Shanghai match-up can go either way, we are backing Dimitrov to edge the Australian in three sets to advance to the fourth round.

However, that outcome will be contingent on the ninth seed returning competently to deal with the Australian’s big serve and remaining healthy for the match’s duration.

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