Preview: Andrey Rublev vs. Grigor Dimitrov -to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday’s US Open fourth-round match between Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Sunday’s US Open fourth-round action presents the first top-10 battle when Andrey Rublev seeks another last-eight spot at the expense of Grigor Dimitrov.

The No. 6 seed has outdone his performance at the previous two Majors this year by reaching round four, and the Russian seeks a fifth last-eight appearance in New York by beating the experienced Bulgarian No. 9 seed.

Match preview
© Imago

Rublev’s ambition for his maiden Grand Slam could have ended in round two when he was two sets down against Arthur Rinderknech but roared back to win the match in five sets.

Normal service resumed on Friday in a straightforward 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 triumph over Jiri Lehecka to move within one more victory of matching his best run at the Grand Slams.

Rublev, a 10-time quarter-finalist at the top events — including four last-eight runs in New York — seeks to shatter his glass ceiling this year.

Novak Djokovic’s unexpected loss to Alexei Popyrin in Friday’s night session has seemingly opened up the other half of the draw, boosting the hopes of potential contenders outside of Carlos Alcaraz and the Serbian.

The 26-year-old Russian falls into that category, although he must play out of his skin to reach the last eight and defeat either Frances Tiafoe or Popyrin in the quarters if he beats Dimitrov.

Despite his advanced years, the Bulgarian No. 9 seed has remained unblemished at the final major of 2024, underscored by three straight-set victories in rounds one, two and three.

The latest was a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win over Tallon Griekspoor, who failed to muster a single breakpoint opportunity against the 2019 US Open semi-finalist.

Dimitrov has not reached the same level of success since that last four run five years ago, with that performance being the last of three appearances in the semis of any Grand Slam event.

A quarter-final at the 2021 Australian Open and this year’s French Open account for the 33-year-old’s deepest runs at the majors, with the Bulgarian failing to make the final eight on three other occasions after round-four losses at Roland Garros (2023) and twice at Wimbledon (2023, 2024).

Having suffered three straight second-round losses and one round-three defeat at Flushing Meadows, Dimitrov seeks a spot in the quarters for the first time in five years.

Tournament so far
Andrey Rublev:

First round: vs. Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-3 7-6[3] 7-5
Second round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 4-6 5-7 6-1 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Jiri Lehecka 6-3 7-5 6-4

Grigor Dimitrov:

First round: vs. Kyrian Jacquet 6-3 6-4 6-2
Second round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 6-1 6-1 7-6[4]
Third round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-3 6-1

Head To Head
US Open (2017) – Second round: Rublev 7-5 7-6[3] 6-3

Australian Open (2018) – Third round: Dimitrov 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4

Rotterdam (2018) – Quarter-final: Dimitrov 6-3 6-4

Beijing (2019) – Round of 32: Rublev 6-2 7-5

Indian Wells (2022) – Quarter-final: Rublev 7-5 6-2

Vienna (2022) – Round of 16: Dimitrov 6-3 6-4

Shanghai Masters (2023) – Semi-final: Rublev 7-6[7] 6-3

Rublev and Dimitrov have faced off on the ATP Tour seven times with the Russian leading their head-to-head 4-3.

They are tied 1-1 in Grand Slam match-ups before Sunday’s fourth-round encounter, their third at the leading events.

A younger Rublev defeated the Bulgarian in their only other US Open meeting in 2017 in straight sets and will aim for a repeat victory.

Interestingly, only once has the victor in this match-up dropped a set, with six of the seven notched in straight sets.

We say: Rublev to win in four sets
As long as he maintains his composure and avoids emotional outbursts, Rublev should be confident in his ability to defeat the 33-year-old Dimitrov and secure a place in the last eight, boosting his prospects of a maiden Grand Slam win after the draw recently opened up.

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