Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Qinwen Zheng -to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s WTA Finals final between Coco Gauff and Qinwen Zheng, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

A new WTA Finals champion will be crowned on Saturday when first-time finalist Coco Gauff takes on tournament debutant Qinwen Zheng in Riyadh.

The American No. 1 played incredibly stunning tennis to end Aryna Sabalenka’s dream of a first success at the year-end event, and she takes on another in-form player, who overcame a wobble during her semi-final with Barbora Krejcikova to advance to the championship match.

Match preview
© Imago

You always wonder which version of Gauff will turn up: good Coco or bad Coco. On Friday evening, the former showed up and raised her level to beat Sabalenka for the first time this year (7-6[5], 6-3), continuing her impressive run since the US Open.

The American’s underwhelming results started long before her title defence at Flushing Meadows, with an extended dip traced back to her semi-final loss to Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros before the mid-point of 2024.

Gauff could not capitalise on several early exits and injury-enforced withdrawals at Wimbledon, exiting to countrywoman Emma Navarro in the fourth round at SW19 before falling in the third round of the Paris Olympic Games to eventual silver medallist Donna Vekic.

Then came the dispiriting North American swing in the lead-up to an early exit in defence of her 2023 US Open title in New York, where she lost in round three in Canada despite making the quarter-final the previous year and losing in the second round of her title defence in Cincinnati before falling to Navarro at Flushing Meadows in consecutive Slams.

What has followed since has been truly remarkable: a coaching alteration with Matt Daly replacing Brad Gilbert has given the American player a different dimension, as evidenced by her current 12-2 record going into Saturday’s final against Zheng.

Not only is the American the youngest WTA Finals finalist since Caroline Wozniacki in 2010, but she has also beaten the world No. 1 and No. 2 during her surge to the title match in Riyadh, emulating Kim Clijsters’s 2002 feat (beating Serena Williams and Venus Williams) to set up a fascinating battle with arguably the leading performer on the women’s tour in the second half of 2024.

Zheng packs a punch from the baseline and on serve, emphasised by her powerful ball striking and outranking the tour for aces this season; she aims to dominate her American opponent in Saturday’s decider.

Despite losing to Gauff earlier this season, the Chinese player probably breathed a huge sigh of relief to avoid another encounter with Sabalenka in Riyadh, having lost all five meetings with the Belarusian, including a round-robin match in Saudi Arabia.

The Olympic champion would have gone into a final against the year-end No. 1 as a massive underdog, but the match-up with Gauff is undoubtedly more even, even if she suffered a straight-set loss to the 20-year-old on the clay courts of Rome in May.

Zheng’s level has risen significantly since that WTA 1000 tournament, underscored by clinching gold at the Paris Games, a quarter-final run at Flushing Meadows, and an impressive Asian swing that saw the Chinese No. 1 reach the semis in Beijing, surge to the title match in Wuhan and clinch the Tokyo Open title before entering the WTA Finals in Riyadh.

Karolina Muchova is the only player not named Sabalenka to inflict a loss on the 22-year-old, considering results from the US Open until now, but neither the Belarusian nor Muchova are on the other side of the net on Saturday.

With a sixth tour meeting with Sabalenka avoided, the youngest player to reach the final at their maiden WTA Finals appearance since Petra Kvitova in 2011 will back herself to clinch her most significant career title on the women’s tour at Gauff’s expense.

Tournament so far
Coco Gauff:

Round Robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-3 6-2
Round Robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-4
Round Robin: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 5-7 4-6
Semi-final: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 7-6(5) 6-3

Qinwen Zheng:

Round Robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 4-6
Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 7-6(4) 3-6 6-1
Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-1 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 7-5

Head To Head
Rome (2024) – Quarter-final: Gauff 7-6(4) 6-1

Gauff is 1-0 against Zheng, with their only meeting at this year’s last eight in Rome, which the American claimed in two sets.

Although the 20-year-old cruised in the second set, a thrilling opener went to a tie-break after the Chinese player broke back when Gauff served for the set at 5-4.

Both players have flourished post-US Open, with the United States star 12-2 and Zheng 15-3 going into the championship match in Riyadh — two of the latter’s three defeats were against Sabalenka.

Having struggled for wins against top-10 opponents for most of the year, Gauff’s three victories in Saudi Arabia have matched her total coming into the Finals, with two triumphs against the top two seeds Sabalenka and Swiatek.

Zheng has claimed five successes against that elite group this year (10 overall) and seeks a sixth against the No. 3 seed and a third in Riyadh to record her 11th top-10 victory.

Gauff is 6-0 in WTA title matches (8-1 overall) since losing to Swiatek at Roland Garros two years ago, while her Chinese opponent is 5-4 in championship deciders, with two defeats inflicted by Sabalenka.

We say: Zheng to win in three sets
With little history between Gauff and Zheng, Saturday’s final could go either way as both in-form players battle in Riyadh.

Much will depend on the American avoiding an inordinate number of double faults or the forehand wing breaking down, while the Olympic champion’s baseline prowess and booming serve will pose problems for the 20-year-old.

Relieved to be avoiding Sabalenka, Zheng’s strong form and reliable game should see the Chinese player secure the year-end tournament, thus ending Gauff’s ongoing 6-0 winning streak in title matches.

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