Preview: Jannik Sinner vs. Mackenzie McDonald -to-head

Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s US Open first-round match between Jannik Sinner and Mackenzie McDonald, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Fresh off his win in Cincinnati, World No. 1 Jannik Sinner begins his US Open run as the favourite to beat American Mackenzie McDonald in Tuesday’s first-round match.

The Italian’s Cincy success has been overshadowed by the doping scandal that rocked the men’s Tour after his win over Frances Tiafoe, and those conversations should continue for as long as the top seed remains in the final major of 2024.

Match preview
© Reuters

Had Sinner’s doping news not surfaced after his Masters 1000 success, observers would be willing on the top seed for a first US Open success at Flushing Meadows.

However, that is anticipated to be the major talking point around the Italian throughout his sixth appearance at the final major in 2024.

Sinner has never advanced beyond the quarter-final in his previous six US Open participations, exiting in the last eight to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in 2022 after an epic five-setter, and he enters this year’s tournament with his best chance of making the last four for the first time.

This is despite a possible fourth-round meeting with No. 14 seed Tommy Paul and a potential quarter-final match with Daniil Medvedev, who got the better of the Italian in their recent match-up at Wimbledon after five consecutive defeats against the 23-year-old.

The top seed and the ATP Tour’s most consistent player of 2024 will focus on one round at a time, aiming to avoid the embarrassment of an early exit.

McDonald seeks to inflict Sinner’s first round-one Slam defeat since Wimbledon (2021) and first in New York since the 2020 tournament aware of his underdog status ahead of Tuesday’s tournament opener.

The 29-year-old’s US Open record further underlines his struggles at his home slam, having never advanced beyond the second round at Flushing Meadows in six attempts.

The World No. 140 has notched two wins in eight matches in New York, lower than his four victories in France and Wimbledon and six fewer than his eight total wins Down Under at the Australian Open.

McDonald’s 25% win rate at the US Open is significantly lower than his win rates at other Majors — 53% in Australia, 40% in Paris, and 44% at Wimbledon — underscoring the challenge of advancing at the tournament against Sinner.

However, the American has been unable to build on reaching the third round Down Under and on home turf last year, with first-round exits in the opening round of all three Slams in 2024, thus pointing to another elimination on Tuesday.

Head To Head
Washington Open (2021) – Final: Sinner 7-5 4-6 7-5

Roland Garros (2022) – Third round: Sinner 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3

Masters 1000 Paris (2023) – Round of 32: Sinner 6-7(6) 7-5 6-1

Sinner and McDonald’s imminent match-up at the US Open will be their fourth, with the Italian notching wins in the previous three meetings.

The Italian needed three sets to triumph in the final of the 2021 Washington Open, claimed their only previous Slam encounter in straight sets at the 2022 Roland Garros third round and beat the American in three sets at last year’s Masters 1000 event in Paris.

Having not faced off in nearly a year, McDonald meets a significantly improved Sinner in New York, and it remains to be seen if he takes a set off the No. 1 seed.

We say: Sinner to win in three sets
Although Sinner might face a mixed reception against McDonald, partly due to the recent doping scandal and the fact he plays a home player, we anticipate a straightforward victory for the top seed to continue his streak of avoiding first-round exits in Slams.

ID:551243:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect5361:

Previews by emailClick here to get Sports Mole’s daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!