Preview: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Borussia Dortmund

Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Champions League clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Made to pay for missed opportunities in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final, Paris Saint-Germain seek to right their German wrongs in Tuesday’s return battle with Borussia Dortmund.

The French champions are 90 minutes away from familiar European heartbreak owing to last week’s 1-0 reverse at the Signal Iduna Park, where one of Dortmund’s icons played a Champions League home game for BVB for the very last time.

Match preview
© Reuters

As PSG failed to make a multitude of openings count in the first leg – erstwhile Dortmund attacker Ousmane Dembele in particular endured a horror show against his former club – BVB talisman Niclas Fullkrug offered Luis Enrique’s men a lesson in attacking ruthlessness.

With 36 minutes on the clock, the Germany international made a brilliant run to meet Nico Schlotterbeck’s ball over the top, took a delightful touch and fired a ferocious low effort past Gianluigi Donnarumma, thereby netting in the 2023-24 Champions League – his European Cup debut season – for the third time.

Dortmund also registered their fifth clean sheet of this season’s Champions League thanks to the profligacy of PSG, who were at least blessed with a weekend off from Ligue 1 matters in preparation for Tuesday’s tantalising second leg, although they have already run away with the top-flight title yet again.

Close yet no cigar has always been the theme for Les Parisiens in the Champions League, but Enrique’s side have already reversed a first-leg deficit against Barcelona in the quarter-finals and could now become the first team in tournament history to reach the final after losing their opening quarter and semi-final battles.

A seven-game run without a clean sheet in all competitions will not do PSG any favours in that regard – nor will winning just three of their last eight matches at the Parc des Princes – but not since the opening weekend of the 2023-24 Ligue 1 season have Enrique’s men failed to score on home territory.

Bidding to break PSG’s 24-game scoring sequence at the Parc des Princes en route to an unforeseen Champions League final, Dortmund proudly boast the label of defensive masters in this season’s European Cup; a fifth shutout in last week’s slender success represents the highest tally of any team in the tournament.

Putting one foot in the Wembley showpiece was the perfect response to a Bundesliga slump, which had seen Edin Terzic’s men draw with champions Bayer Leverkusen and suffer a 4-1 humbling versus RB Leipzig, but the visit of Augsburg to the Signal Iduna Park on Sunday was a foregone conclusion inside just 30 minutes.

One day after announcing his exit from Dortmund at the end of the season, the beloved Marco Reus lit up the Westfalenstadion with one goal and two assists in the 5-1 demolition, while the juvenile Youssoufa Moukoko – potentially the heir to his departing teammate – chipped in with a brace of his own.

Dortmund’s need for Champions League supremacy is no longer so great, though, as beating PSG last week ensured that the Bundesliga would receive a fifth Champions League spot based on their UEFA coefficient, and Terzic’s men are guaranteed to finish either fourth or fifth in the rankings.

The coefficient safety net will certainly not lead to a drop-off in performance from the visitors, but they have failed to win or indeed score in three previous visits to PSG’s turf, going down 2-0 in September’s group battle and only managing a single shot on target all evening; a repeat of such a dominant victory would leave just Bayern Munich or Real Madrid standing in PSG’s way of that elusive European honour.

Dortmund will arrive in the French capital full of confidence that they can complete the job, though, setting up a first Champions League final appearance since 2013, when they were beaten by prospective 2024 opponents Bayern at Wembley – the same stadium where this year’s spectacle will take place.

Paris Saint-Germain Champions League form:

Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions):

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form:

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):

Luckless PSG defender Lucas Hernandez is currently mourning his Euro 2024 dreams, as the man who sustained a devastating ACL injury during France’s 2022 World Cup campaign suffered a similar issue in last week’s first leg, meaning that he may not play again until 2025.

Hernandez joins long-term Achilles absentee Presnel Kimpembe on the sidelines, as well as fringe duo Layvin Kurzawa (back) and Sergio Rico (head), and 20-year-old Lucas Beraldo seems set to step in for the stricken Frenchman thanks to Milan Skriniar’s indifferent form.

The unsuccessful exploits of Dembele and Bradley Barcola last week may tempt Enrique into calling upon Marco Asensio, Lee Kang-in or Goncalo Ramos to link arms with Kylian Mbappe, who will play his final Champions League match for PSG on Tuesday if they cannot rectify their previous attacking errors.

Dortmund did not emerge unscathed on the defensive front either last week, as right-back Julian Ryerson left the field with cramps and was not involved in the beating of Augsburg, which Ramy Bensebaini (knee), Julien Duranville (muscle) and Sebastien Haller (discomfort) also missed.

However, both Ryerson and Haller are expected to overcome their niggles in time for Tuesday, but Karim Adeyemi – a lively force in the first leg – sustained a knock at the weekend and will need a once-over; there is optimism that he will be fit, though.

If he is indeed given the green light, Adeyemi will be one of several Dortmund returnees for the second leg, a list also comprising Manchester United-owned Jadon Sancho, whose 12 successful dribbles last Wednesday was the most by an English player on record in a Champions League match.

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery; Dembele, Ramos, Mbappe

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi; Fullkrug

We say: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (2-2 on aggregate a.e.t – PSG to win on penalties)
PSG were their own worst enemies in front of goal during the first leg and have now hit the woodwork a staggering 10 times in this season’s Champions League, but a timely rest from domestic duties has given Enrique and his backroom staff ample time to dissect last week’s wasteful performance.

Dortmund’s big-hitters are well-rested too, though, and the added motivation of giving Reus the parting gift of a Champions League medal around his neck is a powerful one indeed. Two hours of football may not be enough to settle this tie, but the intimidating Parc des Princes atmosphere should play its part in a nail-biting shootout, where we believe PSG will hold their nerve to punch their ticket to the final.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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