Preview & Prediction: Unbeaten Vikings Head to Lambeau in 1st Divisional Game
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One of my favorite games in my 28-year NFL front office career was in 1998 when our unbeaten Vikings went to Lambeau Field to face the Packers, who had won 18 straight home games.
Preview & Prediction: Unbeaten Vikings Head to Lambeau in 1st Divisional Game
Then rookie receiver Randy Moss had five catches for 190 yards and two TDs, Cris Carter caught eight passes for 119 yards, and Randall Cunningham passed for 442 yards and four TDs while our defense intercepted Brett Favre three times in a dominant 37-24 victory that was a tremendous confidence booster for that team that went 15-1 and fell one game short of the Super Bowl.
The 3-0 Vikings head to Lambeau this Sunday to battle the 2-1 Packers, with first place in the NFC North on the line. There are so many subplots to this game, beginning with who will start at quarterback for Green Bay, but in the big picture, a Vikings win would give them a two-game lead over the Packers and a shocking 4-0 start to the season as they head to London for a meeting with ex-Packer QB Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory in Green Bay: Ā
1. Continue to outrush the opposing teamāThe Vikings have done it three straight weeks, with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler running well behind an improved offensive line. The Vikings rank 13thĀ in rushing (after finishing 29thĀ last season), and the solid run game has balanced the offense and set up play-action success for Sam Darnold.
John Jones-Imagn Images
The Packers have an inconsistent run defense. They rank 10thĀ in the league after holding Tennessee to 33 yards on the ground last Sunday, but Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two TDs in the Eaglesā opening win over the Pack in Brazil. And Jonathan Taylor of the Colts had 103 rushing yards, and the team had 140 yards on the ground in Green Bayās six-point win at home in Week 2.
Despite saying he appreciates his years in Green Bay, Aaron Jones would love to stick it to the Packers with a 100-plus-yard rushing day plus a few catches and a TD or two so he can make a few Lambeau leaps. His O-linemen love Jones and will be motivated to help him have a big game.
On the other side of the ball, it may be the most pivotal matchup of this game. The Packers lead the league in rushing (204 yards per game), led by Josh Jacobs, who has 278 yards to rank sixth (he had 151 rushing yards in the win over the Colts). The Vikings come in with the second-ranked run defense, so itās strength on strength.
Whether Jordan Love returns from his MCL injury or Malik Willis gets his third straight start, Packers Coach Matt LaFleur is going to want to run the ball well to protect either QB from having to throw too much against the Vikings defense that leads the NFL with 16 sacks.
Minnesota Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores addressed the media from the TCO Performance Center. Flores was hired in February 2023 to take over for Ed Donatel after Minnesota finished 30th in points allowed.
2. Flores and his D continue to rattle the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. I found it fascinating to hear LaFleur say no other team runs a defense like the Vikings with the way Flores moves his players around and has them blitzing or faking the blitz. Itās a copycat league when teams have success, so itās surprising more teams havenāt incorporated Floresā scheme.
Itās also highly unusual and a credit to GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the Vikings player personnel staff, Kevin OāConnell, and Flores to have six new defensive starters acquired via 2024 free agency that are all playing at a high level in their first year with a new team.
The list includes two players LaFleur specifically mentioned in his Wednesday media sessionāedge Jonathan Greenard (the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after his three-sack game against his former Houston team) and the teamās leading tackler at inside linebacker Blake Cashman. Then the Vikings added edge Andrew Van Ginkel (three sacks and the Pick 6 vs. the Giants), corners Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, and defensive lineman Jerry Tillery, and itās quite the haul in free agency. With this group added to the returning starters, the Vikings now rank 14thĀ in total D and have six takeaways thus far.
The Vikings lead the NFL with 16 sacks. I think LaFleur will take a huge risk if he starts Love at less than 100% against the top pass-rushing team in the league. The ball will come out quickly with lots of screens and short passes, whether itās Love or Willis.
3. Secondary cover an excellent WR group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Dobbs are an excellent trio. Reed is the team leader through three games, with 10 catches for 197 yards and one TD. Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave are a good tight end pair (Kraft has the bigger receiving role with eight catches for 77 yards).
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images.
Although the Packers have been more run-oriented so far due to Loveās absence (Willis has thrown only 32 passes in the last two games), this will be another good test for the Vikingsā secondary.
4. Pass protect for Darnold vs. the Packersā strong pass rush: Itās another big test for the Vikingsā offensive line, which has played well for the most part against tough pass-rushing teams the first three weeks, the Giants, 49ers, and Texans. Darnold was sacked four times by Houston, but he didnāt turn the ball over.
The Packers have 11 sacks to rank fifth and sacked Will Levis eight times last Sunday. DT Devonte Wyatt is the team leader with three sacks. He will surely line up over Ed Ingram, who struggles at times in pass protection, and DT Kenny Clark has given center Garrett Bradbury trouble in the past.Ā Ā
Itās the same story as the last three weeks for Brian OāNeill and Christian Darrisaw, who face another stout group of defensive ends/edge rushers in Preston Smith (two sacks), Rashan Gary (one sack), and Lukas Van Ness (one sack).
A strong rushing attack, well-timed screens to Jones and Chandler, and a few WR screens will help slow down the pass rush.
Darnold is playing greatāhis eight TD passes lead the league, and he ranks second to Josh Allen with a 117.3 passer rating. Heās only thrown two picks and has not lost a fumble.
5. Get the ball to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison (if heās recovered from a sprained ankle), and Jalen Nailor as the No. 3 or No. 2 if Addison is out again:
Jefferson will likely be shadowed by Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander, who had a Pick 6 last week. But Jefferson has had some big games against the Packers.
Jefferson must be targeted often, as he was in the first half last week when he had six catches for 81 yards and one TD. He has not yet been targeted 10 times in a game, which was always the case in past years. Heās still been productive, with a team-leading 14 catches for 273 yards and three TDs. This might be the week he sees double-digit targets in a game likely to be close.
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
Nailor has a TD reception in all three games and made a couple of tough catches last week. Heās off to a great start this season, with seven catches for 106 yards and three TDs. Addisonās return would be a great addition this week.
6. Win the special teams battle againāthe game features two rookie kickers, Will Reichard (15 of 15, 58-yarder vs. Texans) and Brayden Narveson, who has two misses already from 40-49 yards and hasnāt attempted a 50-plus yard field goal.
Ryan Wright had an excellent game last week with a 48.3-yard average and two punts inside the 20.
The Vikingsā kick coverage units, led by Akayleb Evans, Jay Ward, and Brian Asamoah, have been excellent.
7. Have fewer penalties than the mistake-prone Pack: Green Bay has 26 penalties this season vs. 19 for the Vikings. The team has eight offensive holding calls in three games, with left tackle Rasheed Walker having four of them and two additional penalties. He has a difficult assignment against Greenard, who may see some chipping from the tight ends to help Walker.
8. Continue to stay even or win the turnover battle. The Vikings forced two C.J. Stroud interceptions last week. They have six takeaways this season and a plus 2 ratio to rank sixth, but the Packers lead the league with a plus 7 ratio and also lead the NFL with seven interceptions (three by safety Xavier McKinney and two by Alexander, so Darnold must be careful in the passing game). Ā
Prediction:
I think the Vikingsā defense has an advantage in the possible matchup with Willis, who has only five career starts in his three-year career (although he did win his two starts this year against the Colts and Titans, but the Vikings have a better defense than those teamsā¦the Vikings rank second in the league in points allowed with 30). And if Love returns, he could be a bit rusty and apprehensive about facing the fierce Vikings pass rush that comes from everywhere.
I think Jones and Chandler will have some run success, setting up play action for Jefferson, Nailor, and possibly Addison. The tight ends should also get some opportunities.
Turnovers by the offense would be the Vikingsā undoing. I think theyāll at least stay even on turnovers. The Vikings are the hotter team, playing with great confidence after beating two playoff-caliber teams in the 49ers and Texans the last two weeks, while the Packers beat lesser teams in the Colts and Titans.
Vikings win a close one ā 23-20.
Around the NFL Week 4 picks:
1. In other games involving NFC North teams, Detroit is at home on Monday night and I think the Lions will expose Seattle as a 3-0 semi-fraud (having beaten three 1-2 teamsāDenver, New England and Miami without QB Tua Tagovailoa). Itās time for QB Jared Goff to get back on track after his shaky start (four picks and a 79.2 passer rating so far after a 97.9 passer rating last season).
The Bears are home against the Rams, and the Chicago O-line has played poorly (the team is 31stĀ ranked in rushing, and QB Caleb Williams has been sacked 13 times). Williams is feeling the pressure and turning it over at an alarming rate (four interceptions through three games with two last week, along with a lost fumble late in the loss to the Colts). The Bearsā defense is playing well, but Matthew Staffordācoming off the upset win over the 49ersāwill make enough plays to beat the Bears.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports.
2. In other interesting games, unbeaten Buffalo is at Baltimore in the Sunday night game. The Ravens saved their season with their win last week in Dallas, and I like them at home over the leagueās hottest quarterback, Josh Allen (7 TDs, no interceptions, 133.7 rating).
The 3-0 Chiefs are at the 2-1 Chargers with first place on the line, but L.A. QB Justin Herbert has a bad ankle. It appears heāll play, but Iāll take a healthy Patrick Mahomes over a gimpy Herbert.
Division leaders (both 2-1) meet when the Eagles face the Bucs in Tampa. Tampa Bay clobbered Philadelphia 32-9 at home in the Wildcard round last season. It will be a lot closer this time with the Eagles D coming off a strong game in shutting down the Saints, but Jalen Hurts is turning it over too much (four interceptions and two lost fumbles so far), so Iāll take the Bucs. Ā
Pittsburgh should remain unbeaten at Indianapolis with its stout defense (No. 1 in points allowed with 26) forcing several Anthony Richardson turnovers.
The 2-1 Jets and Aaron Rodgers are the Vikingsā opponents in Week 5 in London, and they are home against Denver this week. The Jetsā D will force several interceptions by rookie QB Bo Nix, and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a good game (281 passing yards and two TD tosses against the Patriots), so I expect him to play well in a fairly easy win before he is tested by the Vikingsā D next week.Ā
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikingsā 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitterā @jeffdiamondnfl
