Preview: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

Sports Mole previews Wednesday’s Supercopa de Espana clash between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A place in the Spanish Super Cup final will be on the line when Real Madrid face their city rivals Atletico Madrid in Wednesday’s clash in Saudi Arabia.

Having been drawn together in the next round of the Copa del Rey, the Super Cup meeting represents the first of three Madrid derbies that will take place in the next month.

Match preview
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Real Madrid will travel to Saudi Arabia in confident mood after winning each of their last five competitive matches, including a 3-1 success in Saturday’s Copa del Rey clash with fourth-tier Arandina.

In a game where Arda Guler was given his long-awaited debut, a much-changed Real Madrid side continued their defence of the Copa del Rey trophy with a comfortable victory, which came courtesy of goals from Joselu, Brahim Diaz and Rodrygo.

With Carlo Ancelotti’s side still in the hunt for four trophies, they will now turn their attention to the Spanish Super Cup – a competition that they have won twice since the four-team format was introduced in the 2019-20 season.

Overall, Los Blancos have lifted the Super Cup on 12 occasions, but they missed the chance to add to that tally last season, falling to a 3-1 defeat to their Clasico rivals Barcelona after beating Valencia on penalties in the semi-finals.

Before they can plan for a potential final against Barcelona or Osasuna, Real Madrid will have to negotiate a tricky contest against their city neighbours in the first Super Cup meeting between the two since Los Blancos won a penalty shootout to clinch the silverware in 2020.

Although they lost to Atletico in their most recent meeting in September, Real Madrid have responded to that 3-1 defeat in emphatic fashion, embarking on a 19-game unbeaten run in all competitions, consisting of 16 victories and three draws.

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In contrast to their city neighbours, Atleti have lifted the Super Cup on just two occasions – first in 1984 before they clinched the silverware for a second time in 2014 courtesy of a 2-1 victory over two legs against a Real Madrid team managed by Ancelotti.

However, unlike Los Blancos, Atletico have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, having won two, drawn one and lost two of their previous five competitive matches.

One of those two defeats took place in their 2024 curtain-raiser against high-flying Girona, who scored a stoppage-time winner to condemn Atleti to a 4-3 defeat, leaving Diego Simeone’s side in fifth position and 10 points adrift of the top of the table.

While their hopes of winning the league title may be hanging by a threat, they remain in the hunt for the Copa del Rey trophy after they beat second-tier Lugo 3-1 in Saturday’s cup tie thanks to an Angel Correa effort and a Memphis Depay brace.

They will now turn their attention to a third appearance in the four-team format of the Super Cup, and their first since losing 2-1 to Athletic Club in the semi-finals in 2022.

After an Alvaro Morata double and Antoine Griezmann strike secured a 3-1 victory in September’s Madrid derby, Atleti now have the chance to beat Real Madrid in consecutive meetings for the first time since 2014 when they followed up their Super Cup success with a 2-1 win in La Liga.

Real Madrid form (all competitions):

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):

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Team News
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Lucas Vazquez has been left out of the Super Cup squad after he missed the Copa del Rey win over Arandina with a muscle injury.

The 32-year-old is joined on the sidelines by long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao and David Alaba, who are all working on their rehabilitation from anterior cruciate ligament injuries.

Ferland Mendy is in contention to start on the left side of defence after missing the last three games through injury, while Toni Kroos is set to feature in midfield, having shaken off an ankle problem which forced him to miss out on Saturday.

Vinicius Junior and Aurelien Tchouameni will also return to the squad after being rested at the weekend, but the latter may have to settle for a place on the bench due to the competition for places in Real Madrid’s engine room.

As for Atletico, Thomas Lemar remains sidelined with an Achilles injury, while Reinildo Mandava is currently with the Mozambique squad preparing for the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations.

Pablo Barrios has been included in the travelling squad as he closes in on a return to fitness, but there is still some doubt as to whether he will be ready to play a role in Wednesday’s semi-final.

Mario Hermoso, Samuel Lino, Koke, Marcos Llorente and Rodrigo De Paul are all expected to come back into the starting XI after dropping to the bench for Saturday’s Copa del Rey win over Lugo.

Griezmann and Morata will also be recalled by Simeone, and the pair represent Atletico’s main attacking outlets, having scored 33 competitive goals between them this season.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Lunin; Carvajal, Rudiger, Nacho, Mendy; Valverde, Kroos, Modric, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Molina; Gimenez, Witsel, Hermoso, Lino; Llorente, Koke, De Paul; Griezmann, Morata

We say: Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid may have lost to their city rivals in September’s Madrid derby, but they head into this one in scintillating form after winning five consecutive matches, and we think that they will continue that run by claiming a narrow win over an Atletico side that have struggled for consistency in recent times.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data

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