Preview: Salernitana vs. Genoa

Sports Mole previews Sunday’s Serie A clash between Salernitana and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Rock-bottom Salernitana seek to claw their way closer to Serie A survival on Sunday evening, when they host mid-table Genoa at Stadio Arechi.

After ending 2023 with a rare win, the Granata have started the new year with three straight defeats; meanwhile, their visitors arrive in Salerno on a five-game unbeaten streak.

Match preview
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With only two wins and 12 points, Salernitana are now aiming to become just the third team ever to avoid relegation with such a low tally after 20 Serie A matches, two years on from their own great escape of 2021-22.

Pippo Inzaghi’s side have won once from 10 league fixtures at the Arechi this season – upsetting Lazio in November – and having conceded 20 goals in the process, their home record certainly makes for grim reading.

Under both Inzaghi and previous boss Paulo Sousa, the Granata have been brittle at the back: they have not only dropped the most points from winning positions in Serie A (15) but also conceded more times from set-pieces (12) than any other side.

Both goals shipped in last week’s loss to Napoli came about from dead-ball situations, with the Italian champions striking deep into stoppage time and rendering Antonio Candreva’s latest long-range blockbuster inconsequential.

Ahead of their latest assignment, Salernitana only have the history books for encouragement, with wins from both of their previous home games against Genoa in Serie A coming more than 70 years apart – in November 1947 and October 2021. However, it was a different story in Liguria earlier this season.

An Albert Gudmundsson goal gave Genoa a precious 1-0 win at Marassi when these clubs last met, and they now make the long journey south to Salerno with doing a double on their minds.

Unbeaten in their last five outings, only Italy’s top three – Inter Milan, Juventus and AC Milan – have joined the Grifone in remaining without defeat since mid-December.

Last season’s Serie B runners-up have, though, drawn four times during that spell, including last Saturday’s 0-0 stalemate at home to Torino.

Sitting 12th in the table as a result, Genoa have some breathing room from the relegation zone and can now tackle a trio of teams placed lower in the pecking order during the weeks ahead.

Following this week’s trip down to Campania, Alberto Gilardino’s men must try to make the most of fixtures against Lecce and Empoli, in a period when they could potentially make great strides towards Serie A survival.

Salernitana Serie A form:

Salernitana form (all competitions):

Genoa Serie A form:

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Team News
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Although Salernitana can welcome Guilio Maggiore back following a one-match ban, and fellow midfielder Grigoris Kastanos could return to the bench following injury, star striker Boulaye Dia (hamstring) remains out of action this weekend.

Lassana Coulibaly and Jovane Cabral are away at the Africa Cup of Nations with Mali and Cape Verde respectively, but Nigerian forward Simy was not selected by his national team and should start up front, most likely supported by Loum Tchaouna and the evergreen Antonio Candreva.

The latter, who has provided four assists in his last seven league appearances against Genoa, has scored six goals from outside the box over the past two seasons – no player has managed more throughout Europe’s top five leagues (Kylian Mbappe and Aleksandr Golovin also have six).

Candreva and Genoa’s Albert Gudmundsson have been involved in the highest share of their team’s league Serie A goals this term: 53% for the former and 50% for the latter, who has recorded eight goals and two assists out of the Grifone’s 20-goal total.

Gudmundsson is set to feature alongside Italy international Mateo Retegui for the visitors, who could include recent loan signing Djed Spence on the bench. As Koni De Winter must serve a suspension, Alessandro Vogliacco is set to come into the back three.

Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Gyomber, Fazio, Lovato; Zanoli, Legowski, Maggiore, Bradaric; Candreva, Tchaouna; Simy

Genoa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Vogliacco, Bani, Vasquez; Sabelli, Frendrup, Badelj, Malinovskyi, Messias; Gudmundsson; Retegui

We say: Salernitana 0-1 Genoa
Although Genoa have struggled to score regularly on the road, Salernitana’s vulnerable defence can be breached at least once by Gilardino’s tough-to-beat Grifone.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data

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