Ranking Christian Walker’s Top 10 Landing Spots in MLB Free Agency
Kerry Miller@@kerrancejamesFeatured Columnist IVNovember 30, 2024Ranking Christian Walker’s Top 10 Landing Spots in MLB Free Agency0 of 7
Christian WalkerJack Gorman/Getty Images
Over the past three seasons, Christian Walker was maybe the most valuable member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, spearheading their maturation from a 110-loss disaster in 2021 to a World Series participant in 2023 and an even better regular-season team in 2024.
However, the first baseman is now a free agent and one of the 10 or so most coveted players (certainly top 10 among position players) on this year’s market.
An oblique injury suffered in late July sidelined Walker for more than a month and kept him from putting together a third consecutive 30-homer campaign, but there’s no denying he has a great bat and maybe an even better glove.
If he were six years younger, he would probably be right up there with Corbin Burnes as the most coveted free agent not named Juan Soto. Even as an elder statesman who will turn 34 just before next season begins, though, there are plenty of teams champing at the bit to give him a multi-year deal.
How much does he figure to go for, though? And which teams are most motivated to make it happen?
We’ll dig into his projected market value before ranking the top 10 landing spots for Walker.
What Will Walker Be Worth in Free Agency?1 of 7
Norm Hall/Getty Images
A complicating factor in trying to gauge what Walker’s impending contract will be is the surplus of available first basemen this year.
Pete Alonso tops the list, but there’s also Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana and Josh Bell as players who could be the primary option for a contender—not to mention Ty France, Rowdy Tellez, Joey Gallo and José Abreu on the list of guys who used to be regulars at first base and might be worth a flyer as a backup.
While it’s not exactly the 2022-23 offseason when all of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson were free-agent shortstops, the first-base market is quite crowded this winter.
Walker might be the best option of the bunch, though.
Now, don’t misinterpret that as a prediction that he will sign for more than Alonso. He won’t. The Polar Bear (turning 30 in a week) is four years younger than Walker and is one of the best current sluggers not named Aaron Judge.
Alonso’s contract figures to be at least twice as long as Walker’s, and it could be more than triple the overall price tag.
Over the past three years, though, Walker has a strong 95 home runs (good for 11th-most in the majors) to Alonso’s 120, a triple-slash (.250/.332/.481) very close to Alonso’s (.243/.333/.493) and vastly superior defense responsible for three consecutive Gold Gloves.
Walker should fetch at least $20 million annually, probably on a three-year deal.
Nos. 10-6: Tigers, Giants, Cubs, Nationals and Mets2 of 7
New York’s Pete AlonsoAl Bello/Getty Images
10. Detroit Tigers
Arguably, the Tigers do need to add at least one impact bat this winter. However, unless they’re planning on moving Spencer Torkelson—who has exclusively played first base at every level since late in the 2021 campaign—it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for them to target Walker. He might be as high as they’re willing to go for a bat with their budget, though, so who knows?
9. Chicago Cubs
There has long been talk of the Cubs wanting Pete Alonso, but perhaps a different first baseman would suffice. It’s likely they would just stick with Michael Busch at first base unless they can land the Polar Bear. They could be feeling out Walker’s market, though, especially as they seek to trade away Cody Bellinger.
8. San Francisco Giants
Walker has hit just two home runs in 184 career plate appearances at Oracle Park. But it’s not like LaMonte Wade Jr.—who is about to enter his final season before free agency—was any better last season for the Giants, with two home runs in 189 plate appearances at home. And unlike Torkelson, at least Wade can play elsewhere, primarily serving as a corner outfielder until two years ago.
7. Washington Nationals
If the Nationals view themselves as ready to spend and contend in 2025, first base is very much a position of need, as it has been for a few years. But spending to upgrade the rotation and going more of a Josh Bell or Carlos Santana route at first, arguably, makes way more sense for them.
6. New York Mets
If they re-sign Pete Alonso, they would have no interest in Walker. If they don’t re-sign Alonso, Walker to the Mets suddenly makes a ton of sense. So, No. 6 on the list? Yeah? Alonso staying with the Mets still feels like the most likely outcome, so anything in the top five would be a bit aggressive at the moment.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks3 of 7
Pavin SmithTim Warner/Getty Images
Current 1B Situation: Pavin Smith / Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Arizona got an unscheduled glimpse into what life might look like without Walker…and it wasn’t bad at all.
The Diamondbacks were four games above .500 when he suffered his oblique injury in late July, and they were 16 games above .500 by the time he returned in early September—before playing .500 baseball the rest of the way with him back in the fold.
That isn’t to say they wouldn’t be happy to have Walker back, but it may have been the push they needed to be OK with moving on.
One major variable in that decision is the Jordan Montgomery situation.
They’ve already made it clear they don’t want to bring back what is presently their highest-salaried player for 2025, but how much of that $22.5 million will they need to retain even if they’re able to trade him? That may well dictate whether they even bother trying to re-sign Walker.
Another major variable is the young tandem of infielders Blaze Alexander and Jordan Lawlar.
The former made the 2024 Opening Day roster, but he wasn’t impressive during his time in the lineup. The latter dealt with a torn ligament in his thumb and a hamstring injury, which resulted in him barely playing at any level in 2024. But the No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 draft was one of the highest-ranked prospects in all of baseball heading into last season.
If both are ready for real contributions in 2025, maybe they slide Eugenio Suárez across the diamond to first base and let Lawlar and Alexander split the third-base duties? If they’re good with that plan, maybe they don’t bother signing any first baseman and instead devote any and all offseason spending to upgrading the bullpen.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates4 of 7
Jared TrioloRob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Current 1B Situation: Billy Cook / Jared Triolo
As things stand, Pittsburgh has maybe the bleakest first base situation of any team in the majors. Billy Cook might be Plan A, but he has 49 career plate appearances in the majors and spent more time both in the outfield and at second base than he did at first base in the minors.
But what else is new for the Pirates? Since the beginning of 2020, they have ranked dead-last in first base production, per FanGraphs.
If they’re going to spend real money on a multi-year free agent for pretty much the first time in franchise history, though, doesn’t that make first base the perfect, low-hanging-fruit spot to do so?
Upgrading from what was a Rowdy Tellez / Connor Joe platoon to a first baseman of Walker’s caliber could be massive in Pittsburgh’s quest to have Paul Skenes pitch in October.
The Pirates didn’t have anyone—first base or otherwise—post an .800 OPS in 2024. Didn’t happen in 2023, either, unless you want to count Drew Maggi’s .833 mark in six plate appearances. But Walker has been north of .800 in three consecutive seasons and would immediately become quite possibly their most indispensable position player.
Will they do it, though?
Pittsburgh has been much more willing to invest in its homegrown talent in recent years, extending Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller on long-term deals. It has also been cautiously wading into the free-agent pool, investing more than $30 million in one-year deals in each of the past two years, including giving Aroldis Chapman an eight-figure salary last winter.
Upping the ante to go get Pennsylvania native Walker is the next logical step in advance of a 2025 season in which the NL Central looks wide open for the taking.
3. Houston Astros5 of 7
Jon SingletonAlex Slitz/Getty Images
Current 1B Situation: Jon Singleton / Mauricio Dubón
As the old saying goes, if at first you don’t succeed, throw $60 million at a first baseman in his mid-30s for a second time.
The Houston Astros are still paying for their failed José Abreu experiment, releasing him this past June but still owing him $19.5 million for the upcoming season.
That’s far from Houston’s only sunk cost, either. They also owe Zack Greinke a deferred $12.5 million in each of the next two seasons, $11.5 million to Rafael Montero who they DFA’d in July, $10.4 million to Cristian Javier who had Tommy John surgery in June and might not pitch at all in 2025, and $17.7 million to Lance McCullers Jr. who hasn’t pitched since the 2022 postseason.
With 2025 marking the final year before both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez hit free agency, though, there’s no use crying over more than $70 million worth of spilled milk. They just need to dig deeper into their pockets and embrace what will be a club-record payroll for what may well be the final year of what has been a long championship window.
That doesn’t mean limitless spending, of course. If the Astros manage to re-sign Alex Bregman at close to $30 million per year, bringing in Walker at a $20 million salary is probably not doable. That would push what was a $180 million Opening Day payroll two years ago up to darn near $300 million.
If they’re unable to re-sign Bregman, though, rolling with Walker at first base and some combination of Shay Whitcomb, Zach Dezenzo and Mauricio Dubón at the hot corner wouldn’t be a bad back-up plan.
At any rate, Houston simply must address at least one of its corner infield spots, and Walker could be the answer.
2. Seattle Mariners6 of 7
Luke RaleyStephen Brashear/Getty Images
Current 1B Situation: Luke Raley / Tyler Locklear
Luke Raley was one of the few things about Seattle’s offense that wasn’t a disappointment in 2024. After the M’s shipped José Caballero to Tampa Bay to bring in Raley last offseason, he had 22 home runs and 11 stolen bases, ranking fourth on the team in bWAR.
Raley predominantly plays corner outfield, though, only taking on more of a first base role (along with Justin Turner) after Seattle kicked Ty France to the curb with no apparent transition plan in place.
Making Raley, 30, the primary first baseman is technically an option, but they do need to add offense somewhere. They are presently on track to have four of Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Victor Robles, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss in their Opening Day lineup.
Adding offense with a great glove attached to it would be a big plus for a Seattle team that already has elite pitching.
As always when it comes to a top-25 free agent, money is the big question for Seattle. The Mariners have been mentioned often as a candidate for the likes of Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Willy Adames this offseason, but usually with a skeptical “if they’re actually serious about spending” tone.
Walker on a three-year deal could be the perfect fit, though, as three years from now is A) when both Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh are slated to hit free agency, B) around the time Seattle’s crop of highly touted position-player prospects should be ready for everyday MLB work and C) one year away from when it will have to make its post-2028 decision on whether to exercise its club option on Julio RodrÃguez for 2030-34.
A $20 million-plus AAV for Walker would push Seattle’s projected Opening Day payroll higher than it has ever been before—and without addressing big question marks at both second and third base—but it simply must do something about its offensive shortcomings.
1. New York Yankees7 of 7
Ben RiceJim McIsaac/Getty Images
Current 1B Situation: Ben Rice / DJ LeMahieu
The catalyst for doing Walker’s landing spots now was Bob Nightengale’s rumor mill article for USA Today from earlier this week, in which he wrote: “If the New York Yankees don’t re-sign Juan Soto, one back-up plan floating around is signing free-agent first baseman Christian Walker, sign either Willy Adames or Alex Bregman to play third, shift Jazz Chisholm to second base, trade for Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger, and then use the extra money to sign Burnes, Fried or Snell.”
First of all, how nice it must be to have “extra” money for a top-10 free agent lying around after theoretically signing Walker and Adames/Bregman and acquiring Bellinger’s $27.5 million salary, but two thoughts on that general proposed plan:
1. NYY needing a 1B is nothing new.
Long before the Yankees officially declined Anthony Rizzo’s $17 million club option for 2025, the entire world expected them to be in on Walker, as first base was a disaster area for the AL champs in 2024. Nightengale even had them listed first among teams likely to “aggressively pursue” Walker in his GM meetings wrap-up article in early November.
2. Why not both?
Calling Walker part of the Yankees’ backup plan if they don’t get Soto seems a little…backwards?
It makes way more sense for Pete Alonso to be the Yankees’ backup plan if they end up having more money to spend than anticipated, with signing both Soto and Walker being the primary goal.
At any rate, if Walker is supposedly Plan B, what’s Plan A?
Actually embracing the Rice/LeMahieu platoon? Re-signing Rizzo for less than he would have cost to keep on his previous contract? Hoping Joey Gallo fares better in a second stint on the roster?
Aside from hanging on to Soto, upgrading at first base is, arguably, the top priority on New York’s offseason agenda. And there’s a small sample size suggesting Yankee Stadium could be a fantastic home over the next three years for Walker, who has a career 1.127 OPS in six games played there.
