Royals just got the reason they needed to trade Seth Lugo

The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they have little desire to trade Seth Lugo, and it’s hard to blame them. Lugo has been nothing but rock-solid in their rotation, and they hope to make the postseason for a second straight year. With that being said, the odds were already stacked against them to make the playoffs, and now, with Kris Bubic landing on the IL for who knows how long, the Royals might have to change their minds and trade Lugo after all.

Kris Bubic is headed to the 15-day IL, manager Matt Quatraro said. Shoulder injury.

Jonathan Bowlan recalled.

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) July 27, 2025Bubic was in the midst of a breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts and 116.1 innings of work before landing on the IL with a shoulder injury. Bubic was an All-Star and was stepping up in a huge way for a Royals team that’s really struggled to score. Now, with Bubic joining Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen on the IL, can they pitch well enough to go on a run, especially when their offense has been struggling all season long?

I want to say yes, but it feels difficult to make that argument objectively. With that in mind, the time to trade Lugo is now, before Thursday’s deadline.

Royals must reverse course and trade Seth Lugo after unfortunate Kris Bubic injury updateThe Royals made a bit of a surprising decision on Saturday, acquiring Randal Grichuk in a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Grichuk will hit free agency if he or the Royals reject his $5 million mutual option, making it entirely possible that the Royals traded for a rental. Grichuk can help, especially against left-handers, but the Royals, even after their win on Sunday, are two games under .500 and 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot.

The odds were stacked against the Royals to make the playoffs, even with Bubic. Now, with their best-performing pitcher of the season out, almost certainly beyond the minimum 15 days, it’ll only be tougher for them to make up ground.

Knowing the odds of making the playoffs are slim, why not trade Lugo, who has a $15 million player option that he’ll almost certainly decline? A playoff berth is unlikely, and Lugo is likely going to hit free agency after the year, so why not get what you can now?

There has never been a better time for the Royals to sell high on Seth LugoIt makes sense for the Royals to trade Lugo even beyond the idea of losing him for nothing. The Royals can sell high on him now, knowing that the trade market is expected to pander toward sellers, and they can also sell high on him knowing that he might have peaked.

Lugo was terrific for the Royals last season, and has a 2.95 ERA in 19 starts this season, but is he really this good? Lugo has a 4.56 xERA this season, good for the 24th percentile per Baseball Savant. He also has a .247 BAbip, well below the league-average mark of around .300 and well below his career mark of .283. The fact that the opposition hasn’t had much batted ball luck, when he’s in the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 21st percentile in barrel rate, shows that he’s gotten quite lucky.

The Royals can extend him, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale says they’d like to, as a way of mitigating the risk of losing him for nothing, but would that be wise considering his evident luck and age (35)? Wouldn’t it make more sense to just trade him in a seller’s market that doesn’t have much pitching talent available and reap the benefits? Even without Lugo, the Royals should be fine with a rotation consisting of Ragans, Bubic, Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron next season.

This Royals team is unlikely to make the playoffs, is unlikely to make much noise if it does squeak in, and has enough pitching to justify selling remarkably high on Lugo, a pitcher over-performing all of his advanced metrics. It’s never fun to sell, especially after just trading for Grichuk, but it feels like the right direction to go in after the Bubic injury. Selling starts with trading Lugo.