Shōgun: The Best Finale Fan Theories

It has been a rough few weeks for Shōgun fans. Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) is incredibly close to his goal of becoming the ruler of Japan, but at what cost?!? He already lost a son, a traitorous brother, a lifelong friend, and a future Emmy winner. At this pace, Toranaga may rule over a graveyard. But the war is far from over. The final episode airs on Tuesday, April 23, finishing the FX limited series and revealing the fate of feudal Japan.

To anyone who hasn’t spoiled the true story for themselves yet, kudos! Sure, the end of our tale is based on real historical events, the 1975 James Clavell novel, and even a Shōgun miniseries from the eighties. But if you haven’t spoiled Shōgun’s ending for yourself yet, why start now? The mighty Reddit machine will join you on your quest to predict the conclusion of the series, collecting theories galore. Some fans even think Toranaga will lose this war. (We would hate to see that, of course!) For every other way this incredible drama could end, let’s turn to Shōgun’s true loyalists.

Maybe Toranaga Sent the Assassins?This one’s a bit of a stretch, but I appreciate Redditors for truly considering every possible angle. Toranaga would be proud of them, even if they are accusing him of murder. But I understand the thought process here. At the end of episode 9, Ishido’s (Takehiro Hira) reign over Osaka Castle takes a blow when Mariko’s (Anna Sawai) threat weakens his hold on the political hostages. So Ishido sends assassins to capture Mariko. The guards light dynamite to break down a door, but Mariko takes the force of the blast—killing herself to save everyone else. In the process, she fulfills her duty of the protest suicide from earlier in the episode and her death slightly mirrors that of her real-life counterpart.

But according to Reddit user u/Mas42, Shōgun may forge a different path. “Isn’t it more likely all Toranaga’s play?” the fan asked. “Mariko didn’t hesitate to say, ‘It’s Shinobi. They’re here for me.’ Why would [she] be so sure? Because she knew that was plan B all along.” It’s well thought out, but it doesn’t seem like something Toranaga would do. He’s not a thief-in-the-night kind of political strategist. “I cannot say what the long-term plan for Ishido was, but as Ochiba told him, he didn’t have any good choices here,” another user commented. Right on the money. Ishido was desperate. I questioned his decision making in my recap of episode 9 as well. That’s why he’s not the man for the job.

FXPraying for a good finale.

Redditors Ship Blackthorne and…Fuji?“I am hoping that Fuji decides to stay with Anjin-san and become his wife,” one Reddit user wrote. Blackthorne and Fuji? “She and Anjin would help each other heal from their losses and move on,” another user commented. A third added, “It would be perfectly fine if he ended up with Fuji.” Wow. This relationship didn’t enter my thoughts even once—but if it happens, I know a couple Redditors who will jump for joy.

Buntaro Goes on a RampageAt the end of both episodes 8 and 9, Buntaro loses someone close to him. First his dad, then his wife. Rough. “Haven’t read the book, but Buntaro gonna go berserk next episode or what?” Reddit user u/lexicalsatire asked. “Lost his dad, now his wife. Killing spree incoming?” Not a bad guess!

FXKeep your eyes on Lady Ochiba.

Why Does Ochiba Hate Toranaga?In episode 6, Ochiba accuses Toranaga of plotting the assassination of her father, the warlord Kuroda. Although it was Mariko’s father who did the deed, Ochiba believes that Toranaga was the mastermind. Is any of this true? “At some point during the episode we will find out why Ochiba hates Toranaga,” Reddit user icemann155 predicted. The novel delves into a very specific reason that Ochiba despises Toranaga, but it’s not something that the limited series has mentioned yet. For now, it seems as if Shōgun is placing Ochiba’s motives solely in her son’s future as the rightful heir.

Will We See the Battle of Sekigahara?As history buffs are already aware, this conflict in feudal Japan ends in the Battle of Sekigahara—one of the most important battles in Japanese history. Will the Shōgun finale send Toranaga to war? “Anyone think they’ll do a very brief Battle of Sekigahara?” one Reddit user asked. “I’m interested to know because I feel like there’s been so much buildup to what Toranaga’s plan is and how it will be executed and consequences to that and I’m really curious to see how they can end the show with so much left to cover.”

It’s true. The Battle of Sekigahara was a massive campaign, even though the fighting only lasted roughly six hours. But as fans can tell from Shōgun, most of the planning and political maneuvering occurred before anyone ever set foot on the battlefield. How will it all play out in the finale? We’re as excited to find out as you are.