‘Sinners’ Should Be a Major Player at the Oscars. Will It Be?

In a sense, Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan have been here before. Their first studio collaboration, Creed, hit theaters a decade ago under great scrutiny before outperforming expectations both with critics and at the box office. The boxing film marked a pivotal turning point after a series of flops for its distributor, Warner Bros., and thrillingly showcased Coogler’s big-scale filmmaking chops as well as Jordan’s leading-man bona fides. The buzz around the movie, a reimagining of the Rocky franchise, was so good that awards chatter swiftly followed—before just as swiftly petering out. The movie only received one Oscar nomination, for Sylvester Stallone’s moving performance as an aged Rocky Balboa. Mind you, this was at the height of the #OscarsSoWhite contrfoversy—and in a year with a best-actor field, at least, that hasn’t aged too well. (Not even The Danish Girl’s nominee Eddie Redmayne would disagree.)

Sinners, the no. 1 movie in America this weekend, was also directed by Coogler, starring Jordan, and distributed by Warner Bros. And it’s an even more impressive accomplishment, pulling off the largest opening-weekend haul for any original movie since the pandemic. As millions flocked to theaters around the world to catch Coogler’s rousing Southern vampire tale, one question started coming up in my conversations with fans and strategists alike: Is there awards potential here? More specifically, does this movie’s commercial success—and, based on that eye-catching ‘A’ cinemascore, its likely long theatrical tail—improve its chances?

I’d argue it should. The merits of the film, as my colleague Richard Lawson thoroughly laid out in his review, are clear and worthy. Sinners has several Oscar-winning Coogler regulars, like costume designer Ruth E. Carter and composer Ludwig Göransson, operating not only at the top of their game but in completely new modes of their craft. The movie’s centerpiece, that showstopping juke-joint dance that collapses centuries of history into one joyous expression, is one of the most striking sequences of Coogler’s career. And the whole ensemble does richly distinctive work. But the Oscars are also about narratives, and what contenders say about their industry. In that regard, Sinners has a hell of a story to tell.

Let’s start with Coogler, an Oscar nominee for best picture (Judas and the Black Messiah) and best song (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). (Black Panther was also nominated for best picture, but Coogler did not produce that film.) His track record is unmatched among his generation’s filmmakers, between his critically lauded independent breakout (Fruitvale Station), his brilliant remixes of iconic franchises, and now, his first truly original movie. Sinners is a major, complex piece of art that’s both thoughtful and entertaining. Just as fascinating is the deal Coogler negotiated to make the film, in which he will retain the rights to it after 25 years pass; the move generated plenty of debate, but speaks powerfully to Sinners’ exploration of ownership, Black art, and the establishment. It’d be a fitting choice for Coogler’s first best director nod.

Jordan was always something of a longshot to be nominated for Creed. He came closer to getting his first Oscar nomination for Black Panther, in which he portrayed Killmonger, one of the great MCU villains. Jordan received a Critics Choice nomination for that performance, as well as dozens of other mentions from precursor groups. He ultimately missed out on breaking the Oscars’ comic-book movie performance curse—Angela Bassett would later get a nomination for Coogler’s Black Panther sequel, though not a win—and hasn’t been in the conversation again since. But Jordan is also one of Hollywood’s most proven leading men under 40, with several dynamic performances under his belt. And Sinners is arguably his finest work—sexy, scary, and utterly commanding. Oh, and he plays twins. In Jordan’s hands, the idea never turns into a gimmick.

Though she’s one of its youngest cast members, Hailee Steinfeld is the only Oscar-nominated actor in Sinners. She’s terrific, as are the movie’s other female leads; you’ve got standouts in Wunmi Mosaku, who’s admittedly more overdue on the Emmys side—Loki and Lovecraft Country alone!—and Li Jun Li, who managed to stand out in the star-studded Babylon a few years back. But in addition to Coogler and Jordan, one narrative demands particular attention this season: that of Delroy Lindo.

Lindo is an industry icon, an indispensable throughline in Spike Lee’s filmography and a scene-stealer in award-winning films like Get Shorty and The Cider House Rules. His snub a few years back for his towering turn as a Vietnam War vet in Lee’s Da 5 Bloods remains, in this writer’s opinion, one of the most outrageous in recent memory. It’s absurd he’s never been nominated. In Sinners, Lindo plays the elder Blues musician Slim Delta with equal parts wit and melancholy, before nailing one of the film’s most devastating monologues. It’s a firmly supporting part, but the kind that, with the right packaging, could finally get him over the finish line.

With the Oscars, packaging is always key. It’s why campaigns run for months, tinkering with their messaging at every beat along the way. Sinners evolves into a hard genre movie, but that hasn’t stopped other gory hits backed by big ideas, like Get Out or The Substance. Its spring drop means it’ll have to stick around in the minds of voters for nearly a year, but Everything Everywhere All at Once and Dune: Part 2 just proved how that can be done. Still, these remain real hurdles, and Coogler and Jordan know all too well that the Academy doesn’t always care about critical and commercial success. You can go all the way back to their debut collaboration, Fruitvale Station, for their first example of a great film that didn’t go the awards distance despite initial hopes.

But as Sinners appears primed to easily cross $100 million domestically, it would surely be one of the year’s highest-grossing best picture nominees. For a movie not based on any IP, not expanding upon any cinematic universe, that’s a story Hollywood just might want to get behind.

Listen to Vanity Fair’s Little Gold Men podcast now.