Skenes’ success disrupting MLB betting market

Pirates ace Paul Skenes’ success disrupting betting market

David Purdum, ESPN Staff WriterJul 12, 2024, 06:19 PM ET

Joined ESPN in 2014
Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008Pittsburgh Pirates rookie ace Paul Skenes is disrupting the betting market, causing odds to move dramatically overnight and even prompting one sportsbook to halt betting on the National League Rookie of the Year altogether, figuring the race was already decided.

Skenes has been that good.

On Thursday, Skenes tossed seven hitless innings and recorded 11 strikeouts in the Pirates’ 1-0 win over Milwaukee. Entering the game, ESPN BET had Skenes listed at 30-1 to win the National League Cy Young. By Friday morning, after he was named the NL’s starter in the All-Star Game, Skenes was 13-2 to win the Cy Young, a remarkable one-day change not often seen at sportsbooks.

Skenes, who began the year in the minors, opened as long as 200-1 to win the Cy Young after being called up in May. He now has the third-shortest Cy Young odds in the NL, behind only Zack Wheeler (+160) of the Philadelphia Phillies and Chris Sale (+165) of the Atlanta Braves, the two consensus favorites.

Patrick Jay, senior vice president and head of sportsbook for ESPN BET, said a combination of Skenes’ strong performances, betting interest and the nod to start Tuesday’s All-Star Game triggered the big odds movement. As of Friday, there were more bets on Skenes to win the NL Cy Young Award than there were on any other pitcher at ESPN BET.

Randy Blum, baseball oddsmaker for the SuperBook in Las Vegas, had Skenes’ odds to be named NL Rookie of the Year at -500 before Thursday’s start and would’ve moved him to -1,000, but elected to instead take an even more extreme measure.

“I closed the pool after yesterday,” Blum said of his NL Rookie of the Year betting market. “Unless he gets hurt, he’s a lock to win. He’s that good from what we’ve seen so far.”

Skenes’ popularity is growing with bettors, as well. At DraftKings, Skenes has attracted twice as much money wagered as any other pitcher since making his MLB debut in May. He’s the third-most bet player overall at DraftKings since May, behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

ESPN staff writer Doug Greenberg contributed to this story.