Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United in advance of Aston Villa match

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Aston Villa.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Aston Villa v Newcastle game.

“Since being hammered 5-1 by Newcastle on the opening day, Villa have taken 43 points from their subsequent 20 Premier League matches. There is now a 14-point gap separating the two teams and Villa are 10/11 with Sky Bet to finish in the top four. Newcastle are 16/1.

“Considering this is a team that have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League matches at Villa Park, the 5/6 with Sky Bet on a home win does look one of the stronger outright match prices across the midweek card.

“Villa know how to win at home while the same cannot be said for Newcastle on the road.

“Although they arrive with back-to-back away wins in the FA Cup at Sunderland and Fulham, their away form in the Premier League has been alarming.

“The defeat at Liverpool made it six defeats on the spin away from St James’ Park during a campaign in which they have taken just five away points – only Sheffield United have taken fewer (2).

“Eddie Howe’s men undoubtedly possess the pace, power and quality in attack to seriously test Aston Villa’s aggressive high line but the balance in their overall play still remains way short of the levels they hit last season and the speculation regarding Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson ahead of Thursday’s transfer deadline is hardly going to help matters.

“Score Prediction: Aston Villa 2 Newcastle 0”

A lot of good stuff in there, as usual, when it comes to what the Sky Sports expert says.

Certainly in terms of the research and the stats.

There are other stats though…

Chelsea 0 Villa 0

Everton 0 Villa 0

Middlesbrough 0 Villa 1 (Cash scored winner in 87th minute)

Villa 3 Burnley 2 (Scored penalty winner in 89th minute against second bottom of table team)

Man U 3 Villa 2 (Villa led 2-0 and collapsed)

Villa 1 Sheff Utd 1 (Villa equalised 90+7 minutes against rock bottom of table)

Now Villa are where they are in the table because that is where they deserve to be but nobody would claim they are playing as well recently, as they were doing earlier in the season.

As for Newcastle United, that when we end up with very good results in the FA Cup, away from home, scoring five goals and conceding none, everybody is so keen to write them off! United absolutely dominated Sunderland who were in a Championship play-off place, 3-0 away from home in a derby, whilst Villa very lucky to win 1-0 with a late goal against middle of the Championship Middlesbrough.

At Fulham, Newcastle poor in terms of keeping the ball first half but after scoring on 39 minutes were much improved and kept the ball far better, won 2-0 away at a Premier League club, had three times as many shots on target as the home side and a respectable 44% possession suggesting that by the end of the game, NUFC had kept plenty of the ball overall.

Whilst nobody will pretend we haven’t had a tough run of results heading back into December, I think the last three matches against Sunderland, Man City and Fulham suggest that NUFC are heading the right way again. Nothing dramatic but the first choice back four is together again, Dubravka has regained confidence behind them, whilst the likes of Isak, Gordon and Almiron are looking a real threat. The four games in January have seen Newcastle score two or more in each of them and nine in total in the four matches, whilst even when you take the last ten games, only in one have United failed to score.

If carrying a goal threat AND the defence continuing with what they are doing… just maybe tonight might not be the easy home victory all the pundits and journalists are predicting.