Sorting the Sunday Pile, NFL Week 11: Chiefs-Bills delivers (but can Buffalo in playoffs?); sorry to Steelers

Just like a matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning always managed to deliver, so too does Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the modern-day version of the matchup between the two best quarterbacks in the NFL going head to head. Jim Nantz said it best: we’re lucky to have gotten every single one of these games.

He meant CBS airing them specifically and that’s true too, but just getting to watch the two biggest stars in the NFL do battle is a freaking treat and Sunday was no different. 

As it has all but one time in the regular-season version of the heavyweight battle, Allen emerged victorious as the Bills won the game 30-21 to open the window for them to steal the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That Allen sealed the deal with a remarkably athletic and eye-popping touchdown run through several Chiefs tacklers to give the Bills a two-score cushion was fitting. It put Buffalo over the 30-point mark, giving them a five-game streak of 30 points or more. It was also their eighth 30-point game of the season, the most in the NFL.

It was a fitting way for Buffalo to win, at home against a loathed rival, with Allen’s signature combo of power and athleticism simply taking over and ending things in a way that Kansas City was powerless to stop. 

More importantly, it moved Allen to 4-1 all time against Mahomes … in the regular season. In the playoffs? Well, the record ain’t so great, with Allen and Buffalo staring down an 0-3 record against the Chiefs when elimination season comes around. 

Which begs the question: does this game mean anything for Buffalo when the bracket gets built? I’d like to think it does, mainly because the Chiefs aren’t the same Chiefs of the last few years. But then again, maybe they’re identical to 2023, when they had to go on the road to beat the Bills and Ravens and rendered a “meh” season meaningless thanks to Mahomes and Travis Kelce flicking the light switch.

But maybe this opportunity, particularly with the Chiefs winning again via some smoke and mirrors, plus having the best coach and quarterback in the NFL, allows the Bills to steal the No. 1 seed and get home-field advantage. That could force Kansas City to head to Baltimore before meeting the Bills in Buffalo and open up a chance for Allen to have his breakthrough a la Jordan versus the Pistons in the 90s.

At 9-2 they’re just a half-game back of the Chiefs now and Buffalo heads into its Week 12 bye on a six-game win streak with the 49ers, Rams and Lions looming after the break. That’s tough but so are the Bills, and they’ve got three games against the Patriots (twice) and Jets to close out the season, so 4-2 is very reasonable.

The Chiefs also draw an, ahem, fairly friendly matchup next, with the Panthers on deck in Charlotte. And they have the Raiders and Browns left too. But they also still have to play the Chargers, Broncos, Steelers and Texans. It’s very conceivable for Buffalo to steal the first overall seed and secure all the benefits that come with being the best team in your conference.

Because the reality is Buffalo’s a better team right now. They were better Sunday on both offense — 366 yards to the Chiefs 259 plus 5.2 yards per play to K.C.’s 5.2 — and defense — two sacks to the Chiefs zero plus seven QB hits to the Chiefs four — and it was notable to see both Von Miller and Curtis Samuel, a pair of recent offseason additions, step up in a big way. Amari Cooper is starting to really mesh with this offense and James Cook is dominant near the goal line, particularly with the looming threat of Allen running.

The only thing holding the Bills back is history. Maybe this is finally their year to change it. 

Mea culpa timeBefore the season, I got absolutely roasted by Steelers fans for predicting they would go 6-11 this season. That was stupid! My pick, of course, not the roasting. That part seems well-deserved, especially after Pittsburgh found another way to win on Sunday, taking down the Ravens 18-16 and moving to 8-2 with a hefty amount of control over the AFC North. 

Credit everyone for the performance this season. Mike Tomlin is proving once again why he’s a future Hall of Fame coach, not just with the week-to-week stuff but with the bold decision to move away from Justin Fields and go with Russell Wilson despite the Steelers sitting at 4-2 at the time. Wilson isn’t playing at an elite level, and he had a near disastrous red zone pick late in this one with a chance for the Steelers to seal the game, but the offense has enough juice to compete week to week and his presence under center emphasizes the ability to get vertical. 

Wilson’s presence clearly unlocks George Pickens, who had another solid game against the Ravens. Najee Harris was fine on Sunday, but the Ravens are a really tough run defense. He’s having a career year for sure. 

The defense is an elite unit, managing to really slow down Lamar Jackson and this destructive Ravens offense in Week 11. How about rookie Payton Wilson with the play of the day and maybe the pick of the year so far, running back into coverage against speedy back Justice Hill and ripping the ball away as he was going to the ground?

The Steelers delivered six hits on Jackson Sunday, and at this point, when you see them shut down an offense like the Ravens and come away with a win, it’s clear the defense is good enough to keep them in the game against just about anyone in the NFL. 

So, my bad, Steelers fans. This team needed decent quarterback play to get in the mix with the best of the best in the AFC and they’re getting it along with a ton of really good complementary pieces, a great defense and high-end coaching. It’s not a formula for torching your way to a Super Bowl but it’s certainly gives them a chance every single week. In a top-heavy NFL, they’re absolutely a problem. 

Poor, poor Bears fansThe last time the Bears beat the Packers? Dec.16, 2018. 2018!  It’s been 2,138 days since Chicago won a game against Green Bay. And this year’s initial matchup — the 11th straight loss to their division rival — ended in particularly painful fashion, with the Bears coughing up a late touchdown to Jordan Love that was answered by a Caleb Williams drive to the Packers’ 28-yard line, only for Cairo Santos game-winning field goal attempt to get blocked for a walk-off Green Bay win. 

Credit to the Packers for the special teams film study that led them to believe they could end up with a block on Santos:

But Chicago didn’t do itself any favors either, eschewing an opportunity to run the ball an additional time and get closer for Santos ahead of the field goal attempt.

The Bears outgained the Pack 391 yards to 366 and held Green Bay to a single third-down conversion. Chicago, the week after firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, chewed up clock all game and scored on four of its first five possessions. But the Bears couldn’t hold on and then couldn’t close out and it might mean yet another coaching change coming in Chicago.

John Fox got a single season with Mitchell Trubisky before he was fired. Matt Nagy got a single season with Justin Fields before he was fired. And Matt Eberflus is tracking to get just a single season with Caleb Williams before he’s canned as well. 

I’m not sure he’s done enough to warrant a long leash, but the previously mentioned pattern and penchant for kicking coaches to the curb almost ensures we’ll see more change in Chicago sooner rather than later. 

Change in JacksonvilleIt brings me no great pleasure to report this column is on a two-week “streak” of correctly predicting high-profile firings. We correctly nailed Dennis Allen getting canned after the Saints’ Week 9 loss to the Panthers and were spot on by expecting Shane Waldron to be relieved of his duties after the Bears’ pathetic effort in Week 10.

Staying “hot” after Week 11 feels like a layup courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who got historically throttled by the Lions on Sunday to the tune of a 52-6 final. 

With the win, the Lions became the first team to score 50+ points in back-to-back home games since the 2014 Packers; they need just one more 50-point game to tie the NFL single-season record held by five different clubs. Only one of those teams (2013 Broncos) pulled off the feat in a post-merger world. 

They also set a franchise record with a preposterous 645 total yards against a pathetic Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars offense was even more hapless, managing just 170 total yards with Mac Jones under center. You’ve got travel back in time to 1979 for the last time a team outgained their opponent by 475 yards.

Every week I go on and on about the Lions. They’re a selfless, well-oiled machine with PROBLEMS on both sides of the ball. I’m not sure what else there is to say: Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a lethal combination, Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown are perfect complementary receivers and the defense continues to develop, even with an injury to its best player. 

The Jaguars are the polar opposite. They can’t really protect. They’ve used high draft capital and free agency dollars to upgrade their weapons and they still feel completely neutered. Defensively they’re a sieve and it won’t get better as the team slips into complete irrelevancy for the rest of 2024. 

Pederson was asked about being fired after the game and gave a complete “meh” answer by saying “if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen.” He’s not wrong per se: the way coaches get fired can seem ruthless and many a fanbase is aggressively rabid when looking to make a change. But the Jaguars’ collapse from the team that won the division in 2022, coupled with Trevor Lawrence’s lack of development over the past two years, makes it pretty easy to see why Jacksonville might make a change.

I’ll say this too: if Pederson is fired this week, general manager Trent Baalke needs to go with him. Baalke famously won a power struggle with Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco before eventually being ousted after San Francisco failed to do anything in a post Harbaugh world. Baalke’s responsible for this roster and his record as GM is just as bad as anything Pederson’s done considering he was in power in Jacksonville long before the coach arrived.

More importantly, owner Shad Khan needs to ensure he can attract the best possible candidate for this job. With Baalke’s presence lingering, it could limit who’s interested in coming to work with Lawrence. And you can almost guarantee it will be someone new coaching this team next year. And maybe next week. 

Is Bo Nix in running for OROY?A few weeks ago I suggested Nix might be getting in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year. That was quickly debunked by Jayden Daniels throwing a Hail Mary in his “Heisman Moment” and Nix is probably still a long shot to take home that hardware. But Sunday’s domination of the Falcons puts Nix back in the mix, at least for now. 

Denver destroyed Atlanta, with the defense completely shutting down Kirk Cousins and this offense. The real story was Nix, though. He registered his first ever 300-yard passing game while tossing four passing touchdowns and once again looking extremely comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense, albeit against a bad defense.

The Broncos’ M.O. this season is beating up on bad football teams, but Atlanta is a playoff contender and division leader and things weren’t close in Denver. Nix was the instrument of destruction for Payton’s detest for the Falcons, as the former Saints coach unleashed his offense against Raheem Morris’ team. 

Payton wanted a Drew Brees-like quarterback for his offense and maybe Nix, who the Broncos took at 12th overall, might be just that based on more than a half season of returns. He was a punching bag early in the season but has put together some really good games over the last month as the Broncos surged their way to a 6-5 record. 

Denver’s got two VERY winnable games in the Raiders and Browns before their Week 14 bye, then gets a bit of a gauntlet down the stretch, drawing wild-card matchups with the Colts, Chargers and Bengals. Their Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs might feature Denver’s starters against backups, so don’t sleep at all on Nix and the Broncos continuing this surge.

The most ridiculous stat line I’ve ever seenTaysom Hill is a gadget guy and buddy was he on Sunday for the Saints. New Orleans smoked the Browns 35-14 in Darren Rizzi’s second game as head coach and it was unleashing Hill that apparently queued up the offensive explosion. Hill was involved all over the place: rushing receiving and passing and he ended up with the wildest stat line I’ve ever seen. 

Rushing: 7 carries, 138 yards, 3 TD, fumble 
Receiving: 8 catches, 50 yards
Passing: 1/2, 18 yards, 1 INT

Hill became the first player in NFL history with 100 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 50 receiving yards and 10 passing yards in the same game. So he’s definitely the first player to ever do that and ALSO fumble AND throw an interception. 

It wasn’t the most impressive performance I’ve ever seen, not even close. But it was worth a 40-burger in Fantasy, helped the Saints get a blowout victory and probably won’t ever be repeated again.