Spain vs. France prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Euro 2024 semifinal

A premier matchup fitting of the Euro 2024 semifinals graces one of the most iconic pitches in Germany, as Spain and France square off on Tuesday for a place in the final.

Boasting five European Championship titles and three World Cup trophies between them, you’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger heavyweight bout in a continental tournament. Spain already passed a similar test as they downed hosts Germany in dramatic fashion in the last round thanks to Mikel Merino’s 119th minute-header in the dying moments of extra time.

Yet, that match has left Spain somewhat sapped of both energy and players. Pedri was injured early in the game by a vicious challenge from Toni Kroos and will miss this semifinal match, while Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand picked up disciplinary suspensions.

Unlike their opponents, France have not been truly tested this tournament. They narrowly downed a disappointing Belgium side in the Round of 16 and played to an uninspiring scoreless draw with Netherlands in the group stage, but otherwise have not faced a serious title contender as of yet.

Portugal were expected to offer more in the quarterfinal, but they — and Cristiano Ronaldo — looked out of sorts before succumbing to penalty shootout defeat.

Instead, France will lean on their recent experience at the World Cup, winning the 2018 title and reaching the 2022 final before defeat to Argentina on penalties.

Spain vs. France prediction, oddsMoneyline lean: Spain (+155)Score prediction: Spain 2-1 FranceFrance’s whole identity under Didier Deschamps has been to keep the attack under wraps until absolutely necessary. It has worked in the past — it brought them the 2018 World Cup title and other deep tournament runs. The French boss has mastered the simplicity and grind of international football…but a few things are working against this approach.

Foremost is that superstar Kylian Mbappe has been poor over the last few months for club and country, and add in a painful facial injury and the restrictive mask, and he’s just not been himself.

The absence of Pedri and Dani Carvajal will be notable for Spain, but France haven’t shown the attacking impetus to match Spain’s venom.

 BetMGM
(USA)Spain win
(90 mins)+155Draw
(90 mins)+195France win
(90 mins)+200Both teams
to scoreY: +100
N: -140Over / Under
2.5 goalsO: +138
U: -190Spain
to qualify for final-130France
to qualify for final+100Spain vs. France match factsDate: Tuesday, Jul. 9, 2024Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)Last meeting: Spain 1-2 France (Oct. 10, 2021 | UEFA Nations League)Pick: Both teams to score — YesOdds: +100 (BetMGM)While it’s impossible to trust the over in any match at Euro 2024, given how few goals have been scored across the entirety of the tournament, it’s reasonable to expect these two sides to get at least one each.

The Spain attack has been impressive throughout the tournament to this point, and France should manage to find the net while chasing the game, especially with big-game defender Dani Carvajal suspended plus Aymeric Laporte’s presence in place of Robin Le Normand, a noticeable downgrade.

Spain vs. France prop betPick: Lamine Yamal to score or assist a goalOdds: +230 (FanDuel)Pick: Dani Olmo to score or assist a goalOdds: +230 (FanDuel)Nobody in the Spain attack has been more impressive than teenage star Lamine Yamal, who leads the entire Euro 2024 field with three assists to this point.  His 14 chances created thus far are the most of any teenager at any European Championship or World Cup on record, according to Opta.

Pair that with Dani Olmo, who will start for the injured Pedri and has been extremely positive for Spain — including a starring role against Germany — and the Spain attack will be a formidable force. While the French backline has been impressive to this point, much of that has been thanks to their possessional dominance, snuffing the life out of games on the ball.

Spain should test that approach, holding much of the ball themselves and putting France under real pressure. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan has been strong in this tournament, but he’ll be tested more than any point before, and these two creative stars should lead the way.

Spain vs. France live stream, TV channel TV channelStreamingUSAFOXFubo USA, Fox Sports app/website, ViXCanadaTSN (1, 3, 4, 5), TVA SportsTSN+, TVA+UKBBC OneBBC iPlayerIndiaSony TENJio TV, Sony LIV
USA: This game will be televised in the United States on FOX, which is available to stream on Fubo, who are offering a FREE seven-day trial. ViX is also an option for Spanish viewers.

Radio coverage of the match can be followed on SiriusXM FC.

UK: Saturday’s match will be shown in the UK on BBC One and fans can stream on BBC iPlayer.

Canada: TSN are the main English-language broadcasters for Euro 2024 while TVA provides French options. This match is also being shown on CTV.

India: Euro 2024 matches are available to watch on on JioTV and Sony LIV. Spain vs. France can also be viewed on Sony Ten Network on TV.