Study: The Steelers’ Troubles On 4th Down

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a tough divisional loss to the Cleveland Browns. Among issues that were tough to stomach were fourth down conversions allowed by the Steelers’ defense. Today, I wanted to examine that by season, week, and game half to see to illustrate how Pittsburg and the NFL have fared on both sides of the ball through Week 12.

First, here are fourth down attempts faced and conversion rates allowed by defenses:

The Steelers’ defense has allowed a 66.7-percent fourth down conversion rate in 2024 which ties for 21st through Week 12. So, last game wasn’t exactly a one-off but an issue throughout the year that has been well below-the-line compared to their peers.

Pittsburgh has faced 15 attempts where the opposition has gone for it on fourth down, near the mean, but tying for 20th. 10-of-15 have been converted, definitely not up to snuff for a defense first culture that has been strong in several areas. Fourth down hasn’t been one of them.

Let’s examine further, with a weekly breakdown:

It’s been a very up and down proposition on a game-to-game basis. Pittsburgh’s defense has faced at least one go-for-it situation in eight of 11 games this season. They have been better than the 57.6-percent conversion rate allowed number (blue line) on four occasions: Week 2 (Broncos), Week 6 (Raiders), Week 7 (Jets), and Week 10 (Commanders). In these four games, Pittsburgh allowed 3-of-8 fourth down conversions (37.5-percent).

Each of them were Steelers victories. Not the best group of offenses overall though, with Washington being the exception. We also see that was the only time the Steelers defense has stifled an offense to a goose egg in fourth down conversion rate. Only one attempt, but a big one with 1:28 left, where S Damontae Kazee tackled the catch just short of the sticks to hang onto the 28-27 win.

Then, we unfortunately see that each time Pittsburgh has been below-average, they’ve allowed 100-percent fourth down conversion rates with a 2-4 record. Considering the Steelers have lost just three games, this has clearly been a factor.

Those games were Week 1 (Falcons), Week 5 (Cowboys), Week 8 (Giants), and Week 12 (Browns). The latter was what spurred the article, allowing Cleveland to go 4-of4 when going for it on fourth down.

Here are the plays:

2nd Quarter (5:07): 4th and 1 – RB Nick Chubb 5-yard run (S Damontae Kazee).

4th Quarter (15:00): 4th and 1 – RB Nick Chubb 4-yard run (EDGE Preston Smith/DL Larry Ogunjobi).

4th Quarter (12:23): 4th and Goal – QB Jameis Winston 2-yard scramble (TOUCHDOWN).

4th Quarter (2:36): 4th and 3 – WR Jerry Jeudy 5-yard catch (CB Joey Porter Jr.).

Lots of pain. Unable to stop short-yardage, particularly against the run, is not what you want to see from a Pittsburgh defense that has a reputation for being one of the stoutest against it in all situations. Mr. Chubb was the main issue, earning the respect of Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin once again.

Letting Winston get free on the red zone scramble for six points was maddening, not the most mobile QB, and Pittsburgh having overall success with that overall in 2024. Then, just outside the two-minute warning, Jeudy’s catch was a drive-extender that led to the nail in the coffin Chubb go-ahead TD with a minute left. Ouch town, population Pittsburgh.

Being unable to stop a previously struggling offense is one thing, but the quantity was downright unacceptable as well. Each of the other three games that the Steelers allowed a 100-percent conversion rate were on just one attempt.

In fact, Pittsburgh’s defense is one of only three units to allow four fourth down conversions in 2024 along with Buffalo (4-of-8) and Indianapolis (4-of-5). Each came back in Week 3, but those teams were able to come away with victory.

Meaning, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense gave up the worst quality and quantity of fourth down conversions allowed of the 2024 season in the Week 12 loss to the Cleveland Browns within the division. Many words that are tough to type and surely have the team outraged.

We also see that 3-of-4 were allowed in the fourth quarter. Here are success rates allowed by defenses by game half:

As you probably expected from the initial view, it has been a second half issue overall and not limited to the Browns game. Part of that is teams go for it more later in games, but all the more discouraging for Pittsburgh’s excruciating 72.7-percent conversion rate allowed (28th) on fourth downs after halftime. Yikes.

In comparison, the Steelers defense is an above-average unit in first halves, limiting the opposition to a 50-percent conversion rate that ties for tenth. 2-of-4 in first halves, compared to a whopping 8-of-11 allowed in second halves. Very difficult to overcome and led to the Steelers demise in Week 12.

They have another AFC North contest on tap, and a tough remaining schedule, where they will hopefully get rid of this stench that was detrimental to their defeat.

Let’s break down NFL offenses. Here are attempts and conversion rates:

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has a 50-percent fourth down conversion rate that is also below-average and ties for 21st, just like the defense. Similar number of attempts as well (14), tying for 11th. So, they have lacked aggressiveness across the entire 2024 season, but that has ramped up more as of late.

Next, the weekly numbers:

Roller coaster. In Weeks 1, 4, and 11, Pittsburgh’s offense was unable to convert on fourth down go-for-it situations. Still, a 2-1 record with the Indianapolis loss having the most attempts (two) with lone ones in the other contests.

Against the Colts, the two fails were a first quarter 4th and 1 sneak from QB Justin Fields for no gain, and with 37 seconds left on a 4th and 11 incompletion to WR Van Jefferson, falling short in their comeback attempts in the 27-24 loss.

Weeks 1 and 11 were both were stuffed runs on 4th and 1 by Fields and RB Najee Harris. Late down short yardages have seemed like being stuck in quicksand, discouraging for a smash-mouth run first Pittsburgh Steelers identity that have been able to do so.

There were below-average in two other recent games as well, Weeks Ten and last outing against Cleveland. 50-percent against the Commanders (1-of-2), and 1-for-3 against the Browns.

The fail against Washington was the fake punt in the first quarter, the aggressive risk that failed to reward as CB James Pierre dropped the pass from S/ST Miles Killebrew. The success was a 4th and 1 run, with RB Jaylen Warren picking up 4-yards early in the fourth quarter, down by six points.

Most recently against the Browns, the success was a nine-yard pass from QB Russell Wilson to TE Pat Freiermuth, on 4th and 1 in the third quarter, when they trailed 10-6. The two fails were, yes you guessed it, runs. Both were tackled for a loss (Fields, Warren). Reminded of their reoccurring issues with a below-the-line offense in 5-of-8 qualifying games.

On the bright side, the other three games featured perfect conversion rates, consecutively from Weeks 5-7. That netted 2-1 record with five attempts in that stretch. Two 4th and 1 runs in the loss to Dallas (Fields 2-yards, Harris 1-yard).

Then, a 4th and 1 three-yard TD run by Fields with 40 seconds left with the game well at hand (32-13 win). Two attempts in the fourth quarter Week 7: Wilson 1-yard run and a 4th and 2 Harris 10-yard TD.

So, Pittsburgh’s offense has had more success on fourth downs than the defense, but it’s also been inconsistent and missing since Week Seven overall. Here’s to hoping that turns around the final six games of 2024.

Now, the conversion rates by game half:

The bugaboo for the Steelers offense has been first half success, with a 33.3-percent first half conversion rate that ties for 27th. Slow starts have been well documented overall, and that included fourth downs. 2-for-6 on these early choices. Impose your will if you’re going to do it, men.

While not elite, Pittsburgh’s offense has had more success going for it on fourth downs in the second half. They’ve gone 5-of-8 for a 62.5-percent conversion rate that is much better than the defense (28th), tying for 11th in the NFL that matches their next opponent the Cincinnati Bengals.

It could come down to this stat in divisional play, where the games tend to be close on the scoreboard.

We can clearly see the Pittsburgh Steelers have had issues on fourth down on both sides of the ball. Hopefully this long week was a time to recalibrate their plan and execution, for more consistent fourth down results on both sides of the ball in the final stretch of 2024.