Supercomputer predicts Man City kick up a gear in 2024 to land a FOURTH consecutive Premier League title… while English clubs tipped to clean up in European competitions

The BetMGM Supercomputer predicts that Manchester City will win the Premier League for the fourth successive season
(Image credit: Getty Images)

With 2023 drawing to a close and the season at the halfway point, football fans are already dreaming about what lies in store for the year ahead – and the rest of the season.

BetMGM has commissioned a stats-powered ‘supercomputer’ to predict the rest of the season, including the final Premier League table, the Champions League, the Europa League, the UEFA Conference League, the Championship, Ligue 1, Serie A, the Bundesliga and LaLiga.

And with Liverpool fans having the most festive cheer as they sit at the top of the Premier League currently, it’s Manchester City fans who will once again be crowing come May.

How the BetMGM Supercomputer predicts the Premier League to finish (Image credit: BetMGM)According to the data, Pep Guardiola’s men have a huge 55.2% chance of winning a record fourth consecutive title, despite currently sitting in fourth. With City pipping Liverpool to the title, Arsenal and the season’s surprise package Aston Villa make up the rest of the top four – with Villa now having a 65.8% chance of securing Champions League football next season.

Manchester United are well out of the race, with just a 2.36% chance of a turnaround into the top four, while disappointing Chelsea seem destined for mid-table mediocrity in 10th.

Meanwhile, things are looking grim for the current bottom three – with Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all destined for the drop. The Blades have a staggering 97.65% probability of going down to the Championship. Second-tier high-flyers Leicester and Ipswich are tipped to grab automatic promotion back to the big time, leaving Southampton, Leeds, West Brom and Sunderland to battle it out in the play-offs.

Harry Kane and Bayern Munich have a 14.12% chance of winning the Champions League, according to the BetMGM Supercomputer (Image credit: Getty Images)

How the BetMGM Supercomputer predicts the Champions League to play out (Image credit: BetMGM)The new year looks to be doubly sweet for City fans – with the predictions not only showing a turnaround to claim the Premier League title but a competition-leading 30% chance of retaining the Champions League.

In fact, the Premier League is set to celebrate a historic clean sweep of European titles, with Liverpool also having a 30% probability of winning the Europa League and Aston Villa with a 33.78% chance of claiming the UEFA Europa Conference League.

Liverpool have an excellent chance of winning the Europa League, according to the BetMGM Supercomputer (Image credit: Getty Images)

The BetMGM Supercomputer predicts Liverpool to have the best chance of winning the Europa League (Image credit: BetMGM)City will have to fight off Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Arsenal for the crown, while Jurgen Klopp is facing a challenge from Bayer Leverkusen and Brighton. Lille and Fiorentina are Villa’s greatest threats to a first European title since the 1982 European Cup.

Elsewhere in Europe, Bayern Munich continue their dominance of the Bundesliga despite Leverkusen’s superb showing this season. Real Madrid fight off plucky Girona for the LaLiga title, while Inter continue their lead in Serie A. PSG take home Ligue 1, but are well out of the running in their quest for Champions League glory.

Aston Villa are favourites to win the Europa Conference League, according to the BetMGM Supercomputer (Image credit: Getty Images)

Aston Villa have a great chance of winning the Europa Conference League, according to the BetMGM Supercomputer (Image credit: BetMGM)All data provided by BetMGM. Visit betmgm.co.uk 18+ BeGambleAware.org

The data:

The prediction model, powered by Stats Perform, estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

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James Andrew is the editor of FourFourTwo, overseeing both the magazine and website. James is an NCTJ qualified journalist and began his career as a news reporter in regional newspapers in 2006 before moving into sport a year later. In 2011 he started a six year stint on the sports desk at the Daily Mail and MailOnline. James was appointed editor of FourFourTwo in December 2019. Across his career James has interviewed the likes of Franco Baresi, Sir Alex Ferguson, David Beckham and Michael Owen. James has been a Fulham season ticket holder since the mid-1990s and enjoys watching them home and away, through promotion and relegation.