The 10 Biggest MLB Dominoes Left to Fall Before 2024 Spring Training

Zachary D. RymerFebruary 4, 2024The 10 Biggest MLB Dominoes Left to Fall Before 2024 Spring Training0 of 11

Somebody should sign Cody Bellinger.Michael Reaves/Getty Images

This is just a guess, but the Corbin Burnes blockbuster probably won’t be the last major development before teams start reporting for spring training.

Though the deal that sent Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday came out of nowhere, that the 2021 Cy Young Award winner was traded at all isn’t the biggest surprise. The possibility was always out there. Looming. Waiting for the right moment.

So, what big dominoes could fall next?

In the form of general storylines, let’s discuss 10 such dominoes that would make noise if and when they fall. There’s no guarantee any of them will indeed fall between now and when pitchers and catchers begin reporting on Feb. 14, but let’s just operate under the notion that anything is possible. It seems appropriate after the Burnes trade.

Let’s get to it.

Bonus Item: Does the Orioles Sale Have Any Immediate Implications?1 of 11

Cal Ripken Jr.Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Did I say 10 storylines? Whoops. Sorry about that. The actual number is more like 10.5.

The Orioles aren’t in the news right now just for the Burnes trade, after all. They’re also in the process of being sold, with a group led by billionaire David Rubenstein—and featuring none other than Orioles legend Cal Ripken J.—having agreed to buy the franchise from the Angelos family for $1.7 billion.

This is not something to be said lightly after a 101-win season in 2023, but here goes: This is the best reason Orioles fans have had to get excited in a long time.

Though the Angeloses deserve some credit for hiring Mike Elias to run the front office, he hasn’t exactly had much in the way of resources since coming aboard in 2018. The O’s had bottom-five payrolls each year between 2019 and 2023. And even after the Burnes trade, another bottom-five payroll is projected for 2024.

It usually takes a while for sales of MLB teams to become official, and Elias himself noted that the Burnes trade was “not part and parcel” to the sale. This is to say it’s not quite a new day for the O’s, hence why this is only half a domino.

This should only dull Baltimore fans’ excitement so much, however. They darn well should be anticipating a new era of higher spending, whether it’s mainly on free agents or extensions for one or more of the club’s treasure trove of young stars.

Are There Any Extensions Coming?2 of 11

Pete AlonsoBrandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

Speaking of extensions, it’s that time of the year when they start happening all willy-nilly.

Take 2023, for example. In a span of about four weeks between early February and early March, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado and Corbin Carroll signed nine-figure deals that totaled $569 million. Could we see a similar run on extensions this year?

Well, you can probably count out the Orioles extending Burnes despite the promise of new ownership. Yet per their shared agent, Scott Boras, the O’s are interested in locking up reigning American League Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson and No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday:

Andy Kostka @afkostkaAgent Scott Boras said the Orioles reach out about contract extensions for Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday “only once or twice a day.”

An extension for Holliday would fill a mold that’s already been filled twice this winter. He hasn’t yet taken a swing at the MLB level, but that didn’t stop Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith from inking deals with the Brewers and Detroit Tigers, respectively.

As to veterans who could conceivably sign deals, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are both on extension watch in New York with free agency looming after 2024. Ditto for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman in Houston. And with free agency set to call after 2025, it’s probably time the Toronto Blue Jays got anxious about locking up Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

How Will the Dodgers Complete the Puzzle?3 of 11

Andrew Friedman (L) and Shohei Ohtani (R)Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

Meanwhile in Los Angeles, the Dodgers can look back on their offseason so far and call it a job well done.

Yes, this is a deliberate understatement. Simply dropping $700 million on Shohei Ohtani would have been enough, but then you have a $325 million deal with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and $47.5 million in other free-agent deals, plus $160.6 million in extensions for Tyler Glasnow and Max Muncy. If nothing else, the Dodgers have bought a lot of hype.

But have they bought the best team in baseball?

Perhaps not, if FanGraphs’ projections for 2024 are to be believed. Those favor Atlanta, which is also the opinion of MLB Network talking heads Ron Darling and Matt Vasgersian. And, honestly, yours truly leans the same way.

Ah, but the Dodgers aren’t done yet. As Ken Rosenthal reported on Jan. 28, they still want to add a high-leverage reliever. He specifically mentioned two familiar faces in Ryan Brasier, who’s a free agent, and Kenley Jansen, who may be a trade candidate.

Just sayin’, another trade candidate worth the Dodgers’ attention is Devin Williams. He’s looked like trade bait all winter, and especially now that Milwaukee is “open to more conversations” following the Burnes deal.

The Red Sox Need to Pick a Lane4 of 11

Craig BreslowMaddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Speaking of Jansen, the premise of him being traded hinges on the Boston Red Sox being willing to do so. Which, in turn, hinges on the premise that they know what they’re doing.

The Red Sox have spent the winter contradicting themselves, and not just in the sense that a promise to go “full throttle” somehow turned into a likely payroll reduction. They traded for Tyler O’Neill, but also traded away Alex Verdugo. They signed Lucas Giolito, but also traded away Chris Sale.

New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow must be defended for the work he’s done with the Red Sox’s pitching infrastructure, but the general vibe here is of a team that’s less than all-in on 2024. Trading Jansen makes sense if this is the case, as does dumping Masataka Yoshida if there are any takers for his contract out there.

And yet, there’s also this report from Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that the Red Sox are still in on the open market’s top starters:

Pete Abraham @PeteAbeRed Sox did their best to tamp down expectations this weekend, but they’re still in contact with the top remaining free-agent starters. Whether they’re serious or not is the question. This much is true: majority of fans are angry.

As he’s currently a Boston resident, Jordan Montgomery makes all sorts of sense if the Red Sox decide they want to be, if not quite all-in, at least a little more in on the coming season. But this is ultimately up to ownership, and that’s very much where the “don’t know what they’re doing” vibe is coming from.

The Rangers, Twins and Guardians Are No Longer in RSN No Man’s Land. Now What?5 of 11

Bruce BochyRob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

It’s been a quiet winter for the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers, and even quieter for the Minnesota Twins and quieter still for the Cleveland Guardians.

But there was a reason for that, and the simple fact that the past tense is necessary here must be a huge relief to all three clubs.

Whereas none of the three had a local broadcasting deal in place prior to Friday, now they all do after agreeing to one-year deals with Diamond Sports Group. Per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, a bankruptcy judge could rule on the agreement on Feb. 9.

Previous reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic indicated that the Rangers, Twins and Guardians could retain about 85 percent of their rights fees. If so, that would mean about $46 million for the Twins, $47 million for the Guardians and $94 million for the Rangers.

For their part, the Guardians aren’t an especially good bet to suddenly come alive despite the cash influx. They reportedly want their 2024 payroll to stay at 2023 levels, and it’s already pretty much there.

The Twins, who’ve already signed Carlos Santana since the news broke, and Rangers could be different stories. For instance, the Rangers might now be able to afford to retain Montgomery, who reportedly prefers to return to Texas.

The White Sox Have to Trade Dylan Cease, Right?6 of 11

Dylan CeaseMichael Reaves/Getty Images

OK, enough with the big picture stuff. Let’s talk about Dylan Cease, who simply has to get traded now that Burnes is off the market, no?

This is up to the Chicago White Sox, generally, and their asking price, more specifically. Said price is apparently quite high, with ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reporting in January that Chicago wants several high-end prospects and “fill-ins” for Cease.

In other words, more than the Brewers got for Burnes. The prospect headlining that deal (Joey Ortiz) was only the No. 90 talent in MLB according to B/R’s Joel Reuter. It otherwise consisted of a left-handed relief type (DL Hall) and a competitive balance pick in this year’s draft.

But while Cease is less accomplished than Burnes, it was only in 2022 that he was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award and he has two years of club control to Burnes’ one. The White Sox thus should be holding out hope that a team ripe for bilking will come along.

The Seattle Mariners have entered the chat of late, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Other hypothetical fits include the Yankees, Red Sox and maybe even the Twins, who Dan Hayes of The Athletic says have previously “explored” Cease.

If the White Sox can’t find a taker soon, well, there’s always the trade deadline.

Won’t Somebody Please Sign the DHs?7 of 11

Jorge SolerRob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Shifting now to the free-agent market, among the six big fish still looking for work are two of the best designated hitters in the game right now.

J.D. Martinez has Jorge Soler beat in such things as All-Star selections (6 to 1) and Silver Sluggers (3 to 0), but the two of them were about equally productive with their sticks last season. Martinez had a 134 OPS+ and 33 home runs in 113 games. Soler went yard 36 times and put up a 128 OPS+ in 137 games.

Accordingly, the two must be looking at Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24 million contract with the Mariners and thinking, “Yeah, I can beat that.” We’re likely talking $15-20 million per year in multi-year deals, which shouldn’t be unreasonable for teams in need of some thump.

There’s plenty of shared tissue between Martinez’s and Soler’s potential landing spots, including a New York Mets team that’s been reported to have its eyes on both players. The Rangers are another contender that should be in the market for a DH.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, however, the Rangers have also given internal consideration to Brandon Belt. He’s not to be underrated, as he showed with a 136 OPS+ and 19 bombs last year that he can still hit.

Matt Chapman’s Market Has to Pick Up Eventually8 of 11

Matt ChapmanJulian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

In the abstract, Matt Chapman looks an awful lot like a guy who should get paid an awful lot of money.

Four Gold Gloves in seven seasons? That’s pretty good. And an average of 29 home runs per 162 games? That’s pretty good, too! Put those things together, and you have a strong foundation for initial contract projections that went as high as $150 million.

But does anyone, you know, actually want Chapman?

It feels mean just to think this, yet it’s hard not to given how seldom he’s been mentioned in rumors throughout the winter. His page at MLB.com has been updated only twice since New Year’s, with neither consisting of any especially interesting developments.

Yet there is a market for Chapman, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting that six teams (including two unnamed clubs) have expressed interest. The San Francisco Giants arguably make the most sense, though the Chicago Cubs have a case there as well.

Nonetheless, the question now may be if said market is strong enough for Chapman to collect on what was projected for him. If the answer is no, then some lucky team stands to get a bargain.

Will a Team Meet Jordan Montgomery’s Asking Price?9 of 11

Jordan MontgomeryBailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images

Any team that would sign Montgomery, meanwhile, had better have more than $150 million lying around.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in January, Montgomery seeks to outdo the $172 million guarantee that Aaron Nola scored in a seven-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in November. That kind of money would mark the second-biggest contract ever for a free-agent left-hander, topped only by David Price’s $215 million pact from 2015.

It’s a big ask for a guy who’s never been an All-Star before, much less a Cy Young Award winner like Price was. Indeed, Montgomery has only been 16 percent better than average for his career.

Yet there comes a point when results have to matter. Montgomery’s case is surely that this point is now, as his last 43 starts have yielded a 3.17 ERA even if you don’t count the 2.90 ERA he posted in six outings during the Rangers’ World Series run.

According to Sherman’s colleague at the Post, Jon Heyman, Montgomery’s market includes the Red Sox, Giants, Phillies and Los Angeles Angels in addition to the Rangers. That’s a solid list of teams for anyone to be coveted by, so the chances of him getting what he wants might actually be pretty good.

Will a Team Meet Blake Snell’s Asking Price?10 of 11

Blake SnellSean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Why spend $172 million on a no-time Cy Young Award winner when you could spend over $200 million on a two-time Cy Young Award winner?

With Mark Feinsand of MLB.com having reported that “many believe” Blake Snell is seeking a deal in excess of $200 million, this may be the essence of his pitch to prospective employers. And he has plenty of numbers to back himself up.

He’s one of only seven pitchers to have ever won the Cy Young Award in both leagues, and what he did last season was merely build on how he had ended 2022. Put his last 49 starts together, and you get a 2.34 ERA that’s far and away the best among qualified starters.

The warts are there, of course. Snell has never been good at limiting free passes, and he was especially bad at it as he issued 99 walks last year. The 31-year-old’s stuff was electric enough to compensate for that, but what happens when age starts to dim said electricity?

There’s otherwise the matter of Snell’s market, which doesn’t seem as strong as Montgomery’s. Feinsand’s report noted that a $150 million offer from the Yankees is the only one Snell has gotten this winter, and it’s almost certainly off the table now that they have Marcus Stroman.

The Giants and Angels still make sense for Snell, but it’s not easy to pinpoint other candidates to grant his wish for a $200 million deal. So unlike Montgomery, one can imagine Snell ending up disappointed.

Is it Cubs or Bust for Cody Bellinger?11 of 11

Cody BellingerQuinn Harris/Getty Images

Of the major remaining free agents, logic dictates that Cody Bellinger will end up being the richest of the bunch.

Then again, maybe I’m just saying this because of what Nightengale reported in December about Bellinger’s asking price. The one-time Rookie of the Year and MVP (and Gold Glover, Silver Slugger, World Series champion, etc.) is seeking over $250 million.

And you know what? It makes sense. For all that can be said about the lousy exit velocity Bellinger had last year, that can be excused and he otherwise has youth (still only 28!) and a whole bunch of other qualities going for him.

Yet the teams in on Bellinger seem to be the Cubs and…well, the Cubs. This was the main takeaway from Feinsand’s Jan. 20 report, as well as from Heyman’s report on B/R live on Jan. 24:

B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffCubs are still favorites for Cody Bellinger, per @JonHeyman pic.twitter.com/bVb1mKNvKC

This should be music to the ears of Bellinger’s once-and-potentially-future Cubs teammates, who would love to have him back. But for the man himself? Maybe not so much, as he’d surely have a better chance of getting what he wants if other teams were also involved.

That could be the Giants, or perhaps even the Blue Jays even though their outfield seems set. For now, though, it sure seems like it’s Cubs or bust for Bellinger.