The 10 Games That Will Shape the Rest of the 2025 College Football Regular Season

If you thought the first half of the college football season had plenty of high-stakes matchups, wait until you see what the second half of the year has in store. 

A handful of possible matchups between top-10 or top-15 teams loom, and with each week that goes by, the pressure in each of those games will only get higher. But there are also some games involving teams ranked outside of the top 15 that could dictate the College Football Playoff field. Consider that at this time last year, Arizona State and SMU weren’t ranked before they made their run to make the 12-team playoff. 

So, with several teams still alive in the CFP chase, FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt tried to pinpoint the 10 remaining matchups that will likely shape the field and possibly serve as elimination games. In fact, Klatt believes that the preseason No. 1 team will have one of those games this weekend.

Let’s take a closer look at Klatt’s 10 games that will shape the rest of the 2025 college football regular season. 

Oklahoma vs. Texas (Oct. 11)Klatt’s thoughts: “From a Texas perspective, this one’s obvious. This one is a must-win for them in Red River. From preseason No. 1, if they lose this game, they’ll be out of the playoff picture. I don’t think they have enough left on their schedule to get themselves back to Atlanta or even back in the mix, because, as we know, 9-3 is likely not going to cut it. I know everybody wants to talk about some of these schedules that are so difficult. There are a few that are very difficult with a lot of ranked opponents left on them. But when we get down to it, and it’s a bottom-line business, do we really think 9-3 is going to get into the college football playoff?

“Oklahoma, they can make a huge statement with this win, even though Texas is struggling. Can’t wait to see if [John] Mateer plays, and this is going to really set up the whole back half of the season for each of these teams in an obvious way.”

USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 18)Klatt’s thoughts: “USC could really set themselves up for a stretch run where they’re competing for a playoff spot, and Notre Dame is in the same boat that Texas is in, where they can’t afford a loss. So Lincoln Riley is sitting here, and I know that that was a disappointing loss to Illinois. I get it. … But everything is still ahead of them.

“Every game is an elimination game for Notre Dame. Every single one . This is the one that I point out, because for Marcus Freeman and the Golden Domers, I think this is going to be the most difficult test of all the tests throughout the back half of this season.”

Tennessee at Alabama (Oct. 18)Klatt’s thoughts: “Tennessee’s toughest remaining game, which is not an easy schedule by any stretch, would be this game at Alabama. They’re hosting Oklahoma. That’s a monster. They’ve got to go down to Florida, and that’s obviously a game where anything can happen because of the inconsistencies of the Florida Gators. And then they’ve got Vandy. Those are kind of the big games for Tennessee. Can they get to 10-2? If they were able to beat Alabama in that game, that would go a long way. And then Alabama will either really solidify their spot as a favorite in the SEC or they’re going to be right on the bubble after that game.”

Texas Tech at Arizona State (Oct. 18)Klatt’s thoughts: “Tech can really separate itself in the Big 12, because you’re starting to see now there’s only a few teams that are undefeated in the Big 12 in terms of conference play. You’ve got BYU undefeated, and they’ve got to play Utah coming up. They’ve got to play Texas Tech. So we’ll see what happens with them. 

“But Arizona State is the sneaky one. Remember, they were the playoff team last year, so Joey McGuire and Texas Tech have a chance to really stamp this season if they could beat Kenny Dillingham’s team at Arizona State. … If  [Arizona State] could get back in the driver’s seat as an undefeated in conference, beating what we now think is the favorite, they’d be right there again. So, this one is going to tell us everything we need to know about the Big 12.”

Behren Morton and Texas Tech are the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)

Texas A&M at LSU (Oct. 25)Klatt’s thoughts: “A win in this game for A&M buys them some serious breathing room for the CFP one and for potentially getting themselves to Atlanta and playing for the SEC championship. Mike Elko has done a fabulous job. … They’ve been getting better and better and better on the defensive side, to the point where the last two weeks they’ve played suffocating defense in SEC play. I like their quarterback, Marcel Reed. I really love Mario Craver and KC Conception on the outside. This is a dangerous team.

“LSU could very well be 6-1 and in the top 10 when this game comes around. People have forgotten about them because of that loss to Ole Miss. … There’s probably time to get them back in the playoff push, but this one would put them right back and maybe even in driver’s seat mode to get to Atlanta. I still am a firm believer that if you get to Indianapolis and play for the Big Ten Championship or you get to Atlanta play for the SEC championship, you’re going to be in.”

Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1)Klatt’s thoughts: “Penn State has to win out, which means that James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have got to go to Ohio State and do something that they have just never done before. One, beat Ohio State there, and two, for James Franklin in particular, ever since 2016, win a game against a top-10 team. Ohio State’s not going to go anywhere until that point. 

“In some of the polls that I put out in the preseason, I had Penn State at No. 1. …  We could be talking about the first of November, day after Halloween, Penn State basically being eliminated. That would be wild with the expectations that we had coming in to this season. Depending on what Ohio State is able to do the rest of October, there’s a good chance that Ohio State will be an undefeated No. 1 team in the country. So that would be a huge test. But if [Penn State] were able to get it done, they would be right back in it.”

Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8)Klatt’s thoughts: “Regardless of what happens for Penn State against Ohio State, this one’s going to be a massive one for Indiana. We’re going to see a huge game this week for Indiana as they travel to Eugene and play Oregon. Regardless of that outcome, though, this one would be the real ticket for Indiana. If Curt Cignetti wants to make a second straight CFP, I think they have to beat Penn State on the road. Could they get in if they don’t, and they’re 10-2? Yes, but I do think that they’re going to be in a résumé battle, and that résumé, because of the non-conference, is not going to look fantastic, even though I think that’s a really good team. The 53-point win over Illinois should carry the day, but that’s going to be a massive game for Indiana.”

Fernando Mendoza has become an early Heisman frontrunner, helping Indiana look like a CFP hopeful for a second straight season. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Oklahoma at Alabama (Nov. 15)Klatt’s thoughts:”Good chance that these two teams have two losses based on their schedules [when this game arrives]. OU fans are going to hate that I said that, but there’s some tough games coming up. You don’t know exactly how healthy John Mateer is, and he’s so vital and so important to their success on the offensive side. The defense will have to play incredible, which they have so far.

“[Oklahoma has] got some tough games with Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee all before that Bama game. Let’s just say, hypothetically, Mateer is not totally right, and they lose a couple games. Well, now you’re going to go to Alabama, and at this point, OU is basically the grenade of the SEC. If OU is for real, they’re going to start eliminating teams one by one. Texas, maybe Tennessee, maybe Alabama, maybe Missouri and LSU later in the year. But if they don’t in these six games [coming up] and they just start splitting all of those games, and they go 3-3, they could be knocking themselves and everybody else out.

“Alabama, they could be fighting for their playoff lives at this point, and we might be watching an elimination game.”

Ty Simpson and Alabama might be playing for their CFP lives when they host Oklahoma in November. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15)Klatt’s thoughts: “Is Texas just a spoiler, or are we in an elimination game at this point? This could be a dangerous game for Georgia, who may be sitting on two losses based on the schedule they’ve got in front of them. A lot can happen still in the SEC, which right now, I would argue, doesn’t have a great team, but they have a lot of good teams. If they start just beating each other up, are they going to knock everybody off, or are we going to have a couple of teams separate and get themselves into a position where they’re clearly in the College Football Playoff? I find it fascinating, this idea of like, does Texas grow, get better and become a great team, or are they just a team that’s really talented, definitely out and is in the role of spoiler the rest of the season?”

Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29)Klatt’s thoughts: “Ohio State could be the No. 1 team in the country. But as we know, Michigan does not care what Ohio State looks like before they face off against each other. My question is, what is Michigan when they get there? Do they win this weekend against USC on the road? Maybe, I think that’s an incredible game and matchup between those two teams, 

“Sherrone Moore has a team that’s young. They’re developing. I think that they’ve got a lot of talent. But they’ve got to develop. They didn’t play great against Wisconsin last weekend. Bryce Underwood needs to continue to get better, but they can run it. They can play quality defense. They’re active, they’re physical, and as we know, they’ve won the last four against Ohio State. 

“[Is Michigan] playing for a spot in the playoff when we get there, even if they were to trip up this weekend? … Michigan could be playing for a playoff spot at that point. In fact, I really believe that Michigan will have no more than two losses when they get to the game, and then they’ll be hosting Ohio State with a chance to go to the playoff.”

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