The bottom four: Hopes and desperation for a playoff rebound at Watkins Glen

As expected, the opening race of the NASCAR Cup playoffs really jostled the order of things in the championship standings. Most notably, top seed Kyle Larson shockingly crashed on his own in the first stage of the race. The result erased half of his points cushion, leaving him tenth in the standings and just 15 points away from the cut-line. Denny Hamlin is another title contender who endured a dreadful day, riding in the back in hopes of avoiding a wreck — only to be in the race-ending crash on the final lap. He’s now just two points up.

But these drivers are still *above* the elimination zone. Four drivers find themselves in the red and will be forced to make ground over the next two weeks, including two champions of the sport.

Brad Keselowski –  1 point out
Brad Keselowski is one point below the cut-line, so his situation is not nearly as dire as some of the others here. He entered the playoffs as the eighth seed, but now sits 13th — just behind playoff debutant Ty Gibbs. However, Keselowski has notoriously struggled at road courses in the Next Gen era with Watkins Glen just ahead. His most recent finishes on tracks that go both left and right are all 13th or worse. The drivers he is chasing have had far more success at road courses as of late, so the RFK Racing co-owner is in a far more precarious position than the points situation currently suggests. The 2012 NASCAR Cup champion will need to step it up this weekend or face a potential must-win at Bristol.

Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing, King’s Hawaiian Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Harrison Burton – 16 points out
Harrison Burton’s heroic drive at Daytona was a wonderful moment for the Wood Brothers, but in truth, no one ever thought the No. 21 would go very far in this title fight. He was last in points among full-time drivers before that win, and while Atlanta was an opportunity for him to gain ground, he lost it instead. He was collected in a last-lap crash, leaving him with a 31st-place finish and 16 points behind the other contenders. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to make up that ground in the weeks ahead now that Burton has fallen behind.

Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing, DEX Imaging Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Martin Truex Jr. – 19 points out
This year is Martin Truex Jr.’s last shot at a second Cup title after announcing his plans to retire from full-time racing at the end of year. Unfortunately, the misfortune that has plagued him since a disastrous 2023 playoffs as the regular season champion has continued into 2024. But this time around, he was the bottom seed in the playoffs, leaving him no margin for error. His car was damaged in a mid-race incident at Atlanta, forcing him to limp around for the remainder of the race. The driver of the No. 19 is now 19 points out, but it’s not all bad news. The Round of 16 ends with Watkins Glen and Bristol, which are both tracks where he has enjoyed notable success. While the gods of fortune say to expect more bad luck for MTJ, past showings at these tracks tell us to watch out for the 2017 champ as he may be down, but not out just yet.

Martin Truex Jr, Joe Gibbs Racing, Auto-Owners Insurance Toyota Camry

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Chase Briscoe – 21 points out
Chase Briscoe blasted into the playoffs with a sensational win in the Southern 500 at Darlington, but luck wasn’t on his side at Atlanta either. When Larson lost control, he couldn’t clear the wreckage and collided with the back of Larson’s Hendrick Chevrolet. Like Larson, his race was immediately over. Unlike Larson, he didn’t have the benefit of 40 playoff points to help soften the blow. He’s now last, 21 points behind the field. With Stewart-Haas Racing closing its doors at season’s end, the JGR-bound driver is their last shot at NASCAR glory, but this underdog story may be over just as the playoffs have gotten underway.  

Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, Mahindra Compact Tractors Ford Mustang

Photo by: Matthew T. Thacker / NKP / Motorsport Images

Playoff standings after Atlanta