The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 4
John Jones-Imagn Images.
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 4
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 3 win over the Houston Texans.
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings at 68.1%.
The Detroit Lions were supposed to win the division heading into Week 1 — that was the forecast for the entire offseason and summer — but Minnesota did itself an enormous favor out of the gate by defeating the Giants, 49ers, and Texans.
If the Vikings lose on Sunday — they’re not favored to win — this percentage will probably dip into the low 60s.
Beating Green Bay on Sunday would put Minnesota firmly in the driver’s seat to contend for the NFC North throughout the whole season.
Sportsbooks = 65.5%
John Jones-Imagn Images.
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, however, after Week 1, when Minnesota spanked the New York Giants.
Now, it resides at -190 (65.5%) following the win over San Francisco.
Minnesota can drive the percentage even higher on Sunday in a road game against Green Bay, although oddsmakers believe Matt LaFleur’s club will win by about three points.
PlayoffStatus.com = 77.0%
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 71.5%
Cleveland Browns cornerback Cameron Mitchell (29) looks to wrap up Minnesota wide receiver Brandon Powell (4) during the first half of an NFL preseason football game at Cleveland Browns Stadium, Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio. © Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK.
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
The Vikings struggle early in the season at Lambeau Field. They haven’t won a game at the venue in the season’s first seven weeks since 2003.
Green Bay hasn’t announced their starting quarterback, slow-rolling the decision until Sunday morning.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
