The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 5
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 5
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 4 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Caean Couto-USA TODAY Sports.
Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings playoff odds at 76.6%.
The Detroit Lions were supposed to win the division heading into Week 1 — that was the forecast for the entire offseason and summer — but Minnesota did itself an enormous favor out of the gate by defeating the Giants, 49ers, Texans, and Packers.
If the Vikings lose on Sunday, this percentage will probably dip into the 70s.
Beating New York on Sunday would put Minnesota firmly in the driver’s seat to contend for the NFC North throughout the whole season and perhaps nibble at homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
Sportsbooks = 79.0%
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is presses by Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark (97) during the first quarter of their game Sunday, September 29, 2024 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, however, after Week 1, when Minnesota spanked the New York Giants.
Now, it resides at -375 (79.0%) following the win over Green Bay.
Minnesota can drive the percentage even higher on Sunday in the London showdown with the Jets, and oddsmakers expect the Vikings to prevail by two or three points.
PlayoffStatus.com = 89.0%
John Jones-Imagn Images.
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 83.4%
John Jones-Imagn Images.
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
The Vikings haven’t started a season this hot in eight years, and weirdly, they have the same bye week as that season. Of course, folks hope 2024 doesn’t completely mirror that campaign because 2016 started 5-0 and finished 3-8 in the final 11 games, missing the postseason altogether.
Sunday may be Aaron Rodgers’ final meeting against the Vikings unless the clubs meet in the Super Bowl.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
