This Is the Vikings’ Playoff Math Right Now
Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images.
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
This Is the Vikings’ Playoff Math Right Now
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 12 win over the Chicago Bears.
DVOA = 97.8%
Steve Roberts-Imagn ImagesMinnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) makes a catch but is later reversed for only one for coming down against the Tennessee Titans. © Steve Roberts-Imagn Images.
Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings playoff odds at 94.8%.
The Detroit Lions were expected to win the division outright heading into Week 1 until Minnesota showed up for a surprise 5-0 start. Detroit has since reclaimed the NFC North lead and the summer forecasts feel accurate. The Vikings will play the Lions in Week 18, which could be for all the marbles. Stay tuned.
If Minnesota wins on Sunday, this percentage will probably climb to 99% or so.
Minnesota’s schedule becomes much more difficult this week and beyond, taking on the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions in the next six weeks.
Sportsbooks = 99.0%
Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images.
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, though, after Week 1, when Minnesota crushed the New York Giants and hasn’t stopped climbing.
Now, it resides at -10000 (99.1%) after a win over the Chicago Bears in Week 12.
Minnesota can get closer to clinching a playoff spot with a win over the Cardinals on Sunday.
PlayoffStatus.com = 98.0%
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images.
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 98.4%
John Jones-Imagn Images.
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
The Cardinals haven’t won a game in the state of Minnesota since 1977, losing 11 consecutive matchups on the Vikings’ turf.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
