Three Stats That Signal Trouble For The Steelers (And Three That Signal Success)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-3 and atop the AFC North with key wins over the Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders, and Baltimore Ravens. But they’re coming off a loss to the Cleveland Browns with some questioning if they’ll end the season like before. A one-and-done playoff stint.

We don’t know the future. But we know where the team sits today. Below are three stats that spell trouble. And three that remind us the sky isn’t falling.

Three Troubling Stats
1. Red-Zone Offense – 30th in NFL (44.7 Percent)
The most-discussed issue with the Steelers is they’ve relied on K Chris Boswell so much that he’s on track to comfortably break the NFL single-season record for most field goals. If they’re going to beat true contending teams, drives have to finish in the end zone.

It’s hard to define why the Steelers are struggling so much. Their running game hasn’t been strong enough. They have trouble beating zone coverage. And they’ve often been one small detail away from scoring, be it a penalty or a receiver not getting both feet down inbounds.

No matter the reason, it’s gotta get fixed. Or it’ll be impossible for the Steelers to make a true playoff run.

2. First-Down Offense – 32nd in NFL (4.1 yards per play)
Something we wrote about Monday. Russell Wilson has turned around elements of the offense but hasn’t been able to budge the first-down production. Pittsburgh is dead last in the NFL on first down, an issue under OC Matt Canada that’s carried over to Arthur Smith.

It’s not all run game, either. Under Wilson, the pass game is producing just 4.6 yards per play, 31st in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s run-minded nature may naturally bring some of these figures down, but they shouldn’t be this low. They consistently put the Steelers in third and long and are one reason why Pittsburgh has faced the fourth-most third-down attempts this season (157).

3. Run EXP – 28th in NFL (minus 23.8) & Run Success Rate – 29th in NFL (40.1 percent)
A two-fer here but they’re tied together. Pittsburgh’s theory of the case was that an improved offensive line and more potent passing game would boost the run game. In moments, it’s looked good, and the Steelers got off to a quicker start than the past two seasons. Volume has been there because of their ability to play with the lead – their 377 rushing attempts are second most, only behind the Philadelphia Eagles – but the efficiency is lagging.

Run EXP notes the expected points contributed by the run game, per Pro Football Focus. If this minus-23.8 figure holds, it would be the Steelers’ worst mark since finishing last in 2020 at minus-45.8. A year when the Steelers got off to a hot start, faded toward the end, and showed they were punching above their weight before falling apart when it counted. Could the same story be written this year?

Run-success rate is what constitutes success based on the down. The numbers vary but this takes into account gaining at least half of the yardage needed on first and second down and all of it on third or fourth. However you slice it, the Steelers aren’t looking good here at 40.1 percent, per TruMedia (which also included kneel downs but removing those shouldn’t dramatically change the numbers). Only the Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Las Vegas Raiders are worse.

Individually, RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren’s have a worse run-success rate than last year. By several points.

*Bonus – Pressure rate: 22.0 percent (18th)
A fourth one because I didn’t want every stat to be about the offense. Pittsburgh is on pace for its lowest sack total since 2016 but even pressures are down. The Steelers are below-average in pressure rate and struggled to get home last Thursday in their loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Injuries can be something of a factor, but they don’t explain it all. Pittsburgh’s kept a deep bench of EDGE rushers, acquiring Preston Smith at the deadline, and the time without Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith has been minimal, even if they’ve spent little time together. These numbers don’t remind of the excellent Steelers defenses of seasons past.

Three Successful Stats
1. Scoring Offense – 22.9 PPG (14th) & Scoring Defense – 16.9 PPG (4th)
Two stats in one. And you gotta think big picture. The goal for the Steelers this regular season was to have a top-five scoring defense and an average scoring offense. They’re literally there. For any team, it’s a recipe for success. The Steelers are scoring 22.9 points per game, a feat they hadn’t achieved the past three years when they toiled in the 17s and 18s.

Those numbers will get tested down the home stretch, but this is a better offense with better quarterback play than they’ve had arguably since 2018. Even Ben Roethlisberger’s final two years weren’t great. And this defense is largely healthy and stout overall, especially in the red zone.

2. Turnover Margin – Plus-13 (2nd)
Despite the loss to the Browns, the Steelers gained in the turnover margin. It’s now plus-13, the league’s second-best mark. Only the Buffalo Bills at plus-14 are better.

In fact, Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the only two teams entering Week 13 to be in plus-double digits. The Steelers have an even split of takeaways, 12 interceptions and 10 fumbles.

Turnover margin is widely viewed as the strongest correlation between success. And Pittsburgh is at the top. And the Steelers are second-best, getting better almost every single week. To take this stat one step further, they’ve lost or tied the turnover margin in just three games this year. Compare that to other teams like the Baltimore Ravens (six), Detroit Lions (six), and Kansas City Chiefs (10).

3. Fourth-Quarter Scoring Margin (91-65)
The Steelers know how to close out a game. They’re much stronger in the second half than in the first half and finish better than their opponents. On the season, they’re outscoring the opposition 91-65 in the fourth quarter. The defense has faltered in some key moments and that’s a worry but on the hole, they are making enough plays late. It’s a big difference compared to the first quarter when the Steelers have been outscored 51-35.

I’ll also remind the Steelers are the NFL’s best team in one-score games under Mike Tomlin since 2007 and are 5-3 this year. They win the tight ones.