UFC 300 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
UFC 300 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks0 of 5
Alex Pereira claimed the UFC light heavyweight title with a knockout of Jiri Prochazka. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
At long last, UFC 300 is just around the corner.
The card we’ve all been talking about for weeks, for months, for years, is set for this Saturday in Las Vegas, and there is no question it’s one of the best the UFC has ever put together.
The headline act will be contested in the light heavyweight division—once the UFC’s “glamor division”—as champion Alex Pereira attempts to defend his title against former champ Jamahal Hill.
There will also be an undisputed title up for grabs in the co-main event, as strawweight champion Zhang Weili defends her belt against challenger Yan Xiaonan. It’s the first all-China title fight in UFC history, and one that could go either way.
Before we get to the undisputed championships, the novelty “BMF” title will be up for grabs, as former interim lightweight champ Justin Gaethje takes on ex-featherweight champ Max Holloway in a clash many see is a front-runner for Fight of the Year honors.
That will be preceded by a No. 1 contender bout at lightweight, as former champ Charles Oliveira looks to slow the rise of surging contender Arman Tsarukyan, while the main card will open with a middleweight clash between super-prospect Bo Nickal and the unheralded Cody Brundage.
We’ll be talking about the results of this card for years to come—probably until UFC 400.
Keep scrolling to see how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all going down.
Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill1 of 5
Jamahal Hill celebrates his victory over Glover TeixeiraLeandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic
Although not the main event people had hoped for at UFC 300, Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill should be an entertaining fight.
Hill looks to reclaim the light heavyweight title he vacated due to a ruptured Achilles, while Pereira is defending a UFC championship for the first time in his career.
Questions still surround Hill’s legitimacy at the top given he beat 43-year-old Glover Teixeira to win the belt before vacating, but we should get answers when he crosses paths with “Poatan” on Saturday.
This is a close matchup, but I lean toward the more technical champ in a slugfest.
Prediction: Pereira by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons
I’m a Hill guy. I think he’s skilled and dynamic, and his fluidity and variety will cause Pereira some problems. I don’t expect the blowout Israel Adesanya scored in their most recent bout, but I do think Hill will present stylistic problems that the champ isn’t prepared to deal with.
Prediction: Hill by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
This is a tough fight to call because we’re talking about two light heavyweights with devastating stopping power. Both also seem wholly capable of being knocked out.
We’ve seen it happen to Pereira before—and a division down, at that. Hill has yet to hit the deck as a pro mixed martial artist, but he tends to leave himself open at times. And a guy like Pereira should be able to land some big shots in those situations, at which point it becomes a question of Hill’s durability.
This really feels like a coin-flip, but in an MMA fight between two guys with ferocious knockout power, it seems logical to side with the one who won kickboxing titles in two divisions.
Prediction: Pereira by KO, Rd. 3
Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan2 of 5
Zhang Weili of China reacts after her victory over Amanda Lemos last August.Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic
Zhang Weili possesses the soundest, well-rounded arsenal of any women’s fighter. Test her striking? She can knock you out in dramatic fashion. Want to grapple? She’s more than comfortable looking for a finish on the mat. Hoping she gasses out? Good luck.
Yan Xiaonan is a game opponent, but she doesn’t have the qualities needed to seriously push the pace against Zhang.
The champ leaves Vegas with a finish and another successful title defense.
Prediction: Zhang by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Good fight. Not the second-best bout on the main card, but a respectable co-main event. Nevertheless, I don’t think it’s the kind of contest Zhang loses unless something unusual happens. She wins it how ever she wants to, probably inside of five minutes.
Prediction: Zhang by KO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor
It’s kind of a shame this fight didn’t land in China or even Singapore, but I’m happy we’ll get the chance to watch it this weekend.
At this point, Zhang is clearly one of the best two or three strawweights in UFC history—it really just depends how you rate her relative to Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Yan isn’t in that conversation at the moment, but she has been in the top 10 for a while and seemed to hit a new level when she knocked Jessica Andrade’s head into orbit last year.
Yan’s newly discovered KO power makes this one interesting, especially since we’ve seen Zhang get knocked out before, but the champion should be able to dictate the terms of this fight.
My guess is she lands more on the feet and sprinkles in some takedowns to win a wide decision.
Prediction: Zhang by unanimous decision
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway3 of 5
Justin Gaethje celebrates with the BMF title.Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic
Get your popcorn ready. This is a fight fans have marked on their calendar since the moment it was announced.
Is it peculiar booking given Max Holloway’s featherweight background? Sure, but there’s no denying a banger when you see one. These are two fighters who love to put on a show. When UFC books guys like that at lightweight, fireworks ensue.
I worry that Holloway won’t be able to keep up with the volume Justin Gaethje brings. Also consider the power he’s giving up moving to a heavier weight class and this spells trouble for the future Hall of Famer. “Blessed” will go down, but not without a fight.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons
I get why they made the fight. I get why Holloway would want it. But I have a hard time believing he wins it. Do I think he’s more skilled, pound for pound, than Gaethje? Yes. But the weight classes matter, and it’s hard to see him not getting busted up.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor
I’m one of the only people on Earth who isn’t totally gaga over this fight, and while that’s partly due to the fact that I think the BMF title is impossibly stupid, it’s mainly because I’m worried Holloway will be on the receiving end of the kind of beatdown Gaethje gave Tony Ferguson in 2020.
There are two reasons I’m afraid this will happen. The first is that the last time Holloway moved up to lightweight, he was beaten up by a bigger, stronger fighter in Dustin Poirier. The second is that, like Ferguson, he is tough to a fault, meaning he will probably be able to withstand a ton of punishment from Gaethje, which may earn him some applause in the moment but will be devastating for his long-term well-being.
I really hope I’m wrong. I hope Holloway somehow pulls this off. If that doesn’t happen, I hope Gaethje puts him away quickly and cleanly. But the truth is that I see Gaethje landing huge shots for rounds on end, and Holloway eating them all—to his detriment.
If the Fight Gods are feeling merciful, the referee will intervene before five rounds are up, but I don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Gaethje by unanimous decision
Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan4 of 5
Charles Oliveira throws a kick at Beneil DariushJordan Jones/Getty Images
Haris Kruskic
As fun as Gaethje-Holloway will be, Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan should be a technical masterclass.
High-level fight IQ is the name of the game for both, and with the finishing capabilities they have, the losing fighter will be the first one to make a crucial mistake.
I still have some questions about how ready the 27-year-old Tsarukyan is for this step. His first-round knockout of Beneil Dariush last December was impressive, but we’ve seen him meet his match in grappling duels with Mateusz Gamrot in the past. Oliveira is elite at getting fights to the ground and finishing them from there.
Tsarukyan is likely a future champ, but Do Bronx won’t be the stepping stone to help get him there.
Prediction: Oliveira by submission, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons
The panel’s resident Oliveira fan won’t go against him here. It’s not a walkover by any stretch, but it says here that it will get to the ground. And once it does, Tsarukyan won’t be able to escape the promotion’s submission matrix.
Prediction: Oliveira by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor
This is the UFC 300 fight I’m most excited for.
Former lightweight champ Oliveira is one of the most exciting fighters in UFC history, and young Tsarukyan is cut from the same cloth, even if he’s yet to achieve as much as his opponent.
I can see both of these guys winning this in emphatic fashion. They both have the skills to finish each other pretty much anywhere. That makes this a tough one to call, but in these situations, I typically go with the more experienced fighter, so give me Do Bronx for the win.
The former champ stings his young foe on the feet, chases him to the ground and strangles him.
Call it Round 2.
Prediction: Oliveira by submission, Rd. 2
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage5 of 5
Bo Nickal Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Haris Kruskic
This is clearly the UFC using the main card opener to highlight Bo Nickal in a fight he will dominate. Cody Brundage is his most experienced opponent yet, but this is a substantial difference in skill level.
Prediction: Nickal by TKO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Brundage is another in a long line of opponents being brought in to help a would-be superstar get over on another level. People know him. They respect him. And when Nickal splatters him, it’ll be even that much more to talk about.
Prediction: Nickal by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor
It took me years to get on the Sean O’Malley hype train, but I haven’t even called my Uber to the train station for Bo Nickal.
Word is he’s a good wrestler, but MMA is full of those, and a lot of them turn out to be mediocre when the fists and feet start flying, so color me skeptical.
I see this fight for exactly what it is: A showcase for a young fighter whom the UFC believes could turn into a cash cow. It wouldn’t put the 28-year-old in the UFC 300 main card opener if it thought he would lose, so obviously he won’t.
Nickal takes Brundage down, throws some ground strikes and locks up a choke quickly. But until he does that to somebody on the fringes of the Top 15, I won’t be impressed.
Nickal by submission, Rd. 1
