UFC 301 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Pantoja vs. Erceg

UFC 301 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Pantoja vs. Erceg0 of 3

Alexandre Pantoja squares off against Steve ErcegBuda Mendes/Zuffa LLC

The UFC returns to Brazil with a UFC 301 card headlined by Alexandre Pantoja taking on Steve Erceg at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

The card might pale in star power compared to the recently completed UFC 300, but it does have some fun matchups. That includes Pantoja, a Rio native, getting the opportunity to defend his crown in his hometown.

He won’t be the only one with a strong crowd behind him. The “King of Rio” José Aldo will return to the cage for the first time since August 2022 to take on Jonathan Martinez in the co-main event.

It’s a fun card that should produce some exciting fights and rising contenders in multiple divisions.

Here’s a look at the complete offering along with a preview and predictions for the showcase fights.

UFC 301 Fight Card, Schedule and Odds1 of 3

Alexandre PantojaChris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Main Card (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET)

Champ Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154) – for flyweight titleJose Aldo (+120) vs. Jonathan Martinez (-142)Vitor Petrino (-575) vs. Anthony Smith (+425)Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+470)Caio Borralho (-650) vs. Paul Craig (+470)Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)

Joanderson Brito (-180) vs. Jack Shore (+150)Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-395)Elves Brener (+210) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-258)Early Prelims (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)

Drakkar Klose (-185) vs. Joaquim Silva (+154)Jamie Mullarkey (+180) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-218)Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)Kevin Borjas (+105) vs. Alessandro Costa (-125)Pantoja vs. Erceg2 of 3

Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg square offZuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The main event is an interesting matchup because it’s awfully early for Steve Erceg to be fighting for a title.

The 28-year-old hasn’t even been in the UFC for a calendar year since his debut. However, wins over David Dvorak, Alessandro Costa and Matt Schnell have him fighting for a championship just three fights into his UFC career.

The scary thing is that the 28-year-old could still win the fight anyway.

The Australian has heavy hands for a flyweight and a penchant for finishing fights with submissions if the opportunity arises.

Still, Pantoja is the rightful favorite in this fight. He’s a well-rounded champion who has skills wherever the fight goes and his resume carriers much more weight going into fight night. He holds wins over Brandon Royval (twice), Brandon Moreno and Alex Perez.

You don’t score wins over those fighters without being legitimate champion material.

Pantoja might not be a longtime champion. There’s a lot of similar talent at the top of the weight class. But he’s at least earned the benefit of the doubt in this situation.

Prediction: Pantoja via decision

Aldo vs. Martinez3 of 3

Jonathan Martinez and Jose Aldo square offZuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jose Aldo is one of the true legends of the sport. He is one of the greatest featherweights of all-time and a figurehead for an era of fighting in the lower weight classes. Fans might be watching him make the walk to the UFC Octagon for the last time on Saturday night.

The 37-year-old has just one fight remaining on his contract and has explored other avenues, boxing three times in 2023.

While a matchup against former UFC champion Dominick Cruz would have been a more apt sendoff, he draws a surging contender in the division in Jonathan Martinez.

The 30-year-old Martinez has put together a six-fight win streak, including a TKO win over Adrian Yanez his last time out and a unanimous decision win over Said Nurmagomedov.

All of the logical ways to break down this fight point to a Martinez win. He’s an ascending contender. He’s on a nice winning streak and he has skills to gain an advantage everywhere.

But it’s hard to picture the King of Rio failing to find a way to win in his final fight on his own turf.

Aldo is a tactical striker and this just seems like a spot where he’s going to dig deep and teach Martinez a thing or two about fight management on the way out.

Prediction: Aldo via decision