UFC 301 roundtable: Is Alexandre Pantoja ripe for an upset?
Alexandre Pantoja is coming home.
When Pantoja steps into the octagon for Saturdayâs UFC 301 main event in Rio de Janeiro, heâll be the first Brazilian champion to defend their title in their home country since Amanda Nunes fought Raquel Pennington in May 2018. That was a triumphant night for Nunes, and Pantojaâs team surely expects the same, but is surprise challenger Steve Erceg set to play the ultimate spoiler?
MMA Fightingâs Alexander K. Lee, Jed Meshew, and Mike Heck gather at the roundtable to discuss the ripples an Erceg win could create in the UFC timeline, plus what else to look for on a low-key pay-per-view offering.
1. Where would a Steve Erceg title win rank among the most unlikely runs to a belt?
Meshew: First off, who the (Mike) Heck is Steve Erceg? I know a Vincenzo Erceg, UFC flyweight contender and the pride of Western Australia, but Iâve never heard of this Steve fellow. And letâs be honest, a âSteveâ Erceg could never win a title. Vincenzo Erceg â or âVinnie Cigsâ as the kids know him â now that man is a very probable champion due to the laws of nominative determinism.
Second, because Iâm a capital-J Journalist, I crunched the numbers to give you an exact answer. In the modern UFC, four fighters have managed to win a title in their first four fights in the promotion, not including fighters who won inaugural titles (think Carla Esparza off The Ultimate Fighter or Ronda Rousey being declared UFC champion from Strikeforce): Zhang Weili, Brock Lesnar, Jiri Prochazka, and Alex Pereira. And itâs pretty safe to say looking at that list, Vinnie is the most unlikely possible champion.
Brock had almost no MMA experience but he was the biggest star in the promotion, so his path to the title was extremely likely. Similar for Pereira who had such a built-in story with then-champion Israel Adesanya that everyone knew it would happen. Prochazka and Zhang are different stories in that they didnât enter with a built-in ticket to a title shot, but both were already among the best in the world in their weight classes and had substantial support behind them. None of this is true for Erceg.
Until Erceg made his UFC debut 10 months ago, a vast majority of the MMA world didnât know who he was. Even after he beat David Dvorak to earn a top 15 ranking, most people still didnât. Honestly, Iâm not sure people know who he is now. But if he pulls this off on Saturday, the man will be an overnight sensation 10 months in the making.
Lee: It would be a stunner. But five years down the road, it might not be with the benefit of hindsight.
Erceg debuted in the UFC with little fanfare at UFC 289 in June 2023, stepping in on short notice for Matt Schnell at UFC 289 before KOâing Schnell nine months later (in between was a decision win over Alessandro Costa Iâm betting few remember). âAstro Boyâ is as unassuming a fighter as youâll find, and even as heâs continued to build a 12-fight win streak, our eyes canât quite believe what weâre seeing.
Great addition to the flyweight roster? Sure. UFC title contender? Where did that come from?
But the UFC needed a Brazilian champion to headline its return to Rio and Alexandre Pantoja needed a challenger who he hadnât already beaten multiple times, so in steps Vinnie Cigs. Pantoja is understandably a comfortable favorite heading into his second title defense, holding wins over pretty much every notable flyweight in the top 10. So if Erceg is being sent out as a sacrificial lamb for the sake of a home crowd pop, then so be it.
I just think thereâs a good chance Erceg is the real deal. By that I mean, not only could Erceg pull off the upset, he might rattle off a few title defenses of his own. So Iâm cheating and leaving this answer open for now, because we might end up looking back at this incredible capper to Ercegâs first four UFC fights and realizing it was only the beginning.
Heck: It would have to be pretty high up there, right? Matt Serra getting there off of a reality show and then beating Georges St-Pierre in the biggest upset of all-time has to take the No. 1 spot, but good olâ Vinnie Cigs could certainly find his face on the Mt. Rushmore of unlikely UFC title runs.
As Iâve said a million times on various shows, meritocracy doesnât matter in the UFC â at least, for the most part â but availability can oftentimes be your best friend. Steve Erceg has done everything heâs needed to do. Heâs beaten ranked opponents and has finished fights in impressive fashion, plus he did so with impeccable timing due to the fact that Pantoja needed a dance partner.
While this may be high up on the unlikely runs list now, something tells me a future roundtable â maybe even later this year â will have a similar question. Why? Because availability is your best friend.
2. Which Brazilian fighter will have the biggest moment?
Heck: This is a tough question with so many on the card, and while the easy answer is Pantoja, the vibes continue to tell me we could be in for a shocking conclusion at UFC 301. So, Iâll take the next chalky answer and go with âThe King of Rio.â
When Run This Town hits the speakers, the arena will come unglued. And while Jonathan âThe Silence Behind the Violenceâ Martinez is a solid talent, Jose Aldo has made his hay in defeating fighters who have an incredible leg kicking game. Not only is he known as The King of Rio, heâs the King of the Legkickers as well. I believe he gets his hand raised in, what will likely be, his final UFC fight.
Meshew: The only possible answer for this is Jose Aldo.
Pantoja may be headlining the card, but this whole ships sinks without Aldo there to juice the crowd up. To say Aldo is beloved in Rio is like saying Conor McGregor is âkind of popularâ or Jon Jones is âa little scaredâ of Tom Aspinall â it understates the point to absurdity.
To steal a phrase from Paddy Pimblett, win or lose, Aldo is âgoing to blow the roof off the gaffe!â And good god willing, if he actually wins â perhaps in highlight-reel fashion â then he can jump the fence and be paraded around Farmasi Arena on the shoulders of his countrymen. Finally, the storybook ending one of the true all-time greats deserves.
Lee: Aldo has the chance to do something special, but thereâs a part of me that is always going to be hesitant to get too excited about a fighter returning from a supposed retirement strictly for business reasons. (Aldo is completing the last fight of his UFC deal so heâs free to potentially go back to boxing.) So Iâll go in a different direction here.
If Aldo is the hero most fans in the building will be cheering for, the majority of jeers will be aimed at Ihor Potieria, a.k.a. âThe Shogun Slayer.â Letâs not forget the UFCâs most recent visit to Rio didnât just end on the down note of Jamahal Hill beating Glover Teixeira. Before that, the illustrious career of Mauricio Rua came to a harsh end when Potieria finished him with strikes in a preliminary bout and then proceeded to celebrate in a manner that didnât endear him to the local crowd.
You can bet the chants of uh vai morrer will be loud and clear when Potieria makes the walkout for his fight with Michel Pereira, to the point that they may want to beef up security. Because make no mistake about it, Pereira is out to avenge Shogun, and if he doesnât get it done in the cage, it could get ugly in these streets.
Pereira is the consummate showman and if he can style his way to a knockout of Potieria, heâll be the most celebrated Brazilian on the card, even if Pantoja and Aldo are triumphant.
3. What is your sleeper storyline for UFC 301?
Lee: Now that Iâve hinted at a best-case scenario where the top Brazilian names on the card all author memorable moments, letâs look at the flip side: What if this is UFC 283 all over again?
Iâve already mentioned the Shogun letdown from the January 2023 event (and hopefully will never mention it again after this week), but donât forget that night also ended with beloved champions Glover Teixeira and Deiveson Figueiredo losing their championships in humbling fashion. To say those disappointments cast a pall over that show would be an understatement.
Can Rio take another hit like that? The city will always welcome the UFC with open arms, but it will be a harder sell in the future if Pantojaâs overlooked title fight ends in a loss and if Martinez spoils Aldoâs return. Anthony Smith stifling Vitor Petrino? Potieria rubbing another win in the fansâ faces? Paul Craig handing Caio Borralho his first UFC loss? Itâs all in play.
A number of Brazilian stars were already unable to compete on this card thanks to Dana White and co. stacking UFC 299 and UFC 300, so fans in this MMA hotbed are likely already feeling a little cold. If they donât see a few favorites get their hand raised, White may want to wait a couple of years before coming back.
Heck: Iâm sure people know where Iâm going here, and you would be right. As usual, these questions usually come down to, âWhere is the who-is-more-for-real fight on the card?â And for me, itâs the lightweight bout between 26-year-old up-and-comers Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai.
Lightweights, am I right?
This fight absolutely rules. Both of these guys have tremendous upside, and they are finishing machines. Brener had a strong case for MMA Fightingâs 2023 Rookie of the Year award after going 3-0 in 2023. He started with a big upset of Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 284 in his octagon debut, then added two big knockouts against Kaynan Kruschewsky and â in a super impressive win â Guram Kutateladze. This guy is really good, but heâs about to get a big-time test against a guy the hardcore MMA fans have been waiting for to get his shot.
Orolbai returns to his preferred weight class, but he has the potential do damage at welterweight, as shown by his short-notice UFC debut neck crank submission of Uros Medic. Orolbai has tremendous grappling chops, but he also hits like an absolute truck, and thereâs a mystique and aura about him that says, âHe just might be that guy.â Weâll certainly find out on Saturday in this fantastically matched preliminary bout.
Meshew: You want a sleeper storyline? Iâll give you a sleeper storyline. Iâll go so deep of a sleeper weâre talking Rip Van Winkle comatose here: Is Karolina Kowalkiewicz fighting for a title shot?
âWhat?!â you say. âThatâs ridiculous!â Is it? Do you know who currently has the longest winning streak in the UFC strawweight division (other than Tatiana Suarez, whose streak has a four-year gap in it)? Thatâs right, Kowalkiewicz! Sheâs tied with champion Zhang Weili at four. And while nobody is clamoring for her to a get a title shot, the fact of the matter is that Kowalkiewicz is a former title challenger, a decent name in the division, and somebody has to fight Zhang next.
Suarez is the obvious next contender at 115 pounds, but she is coming off another injury and banking on her to make it to any fight is a foolâs errand. So who else is in the conversation? Joanna Jedrzejczyk retired, Rose Namajunas jumped up in weight, and Zhang has already beaten most of the other top contenders. Mackenzie Dern could make sense but she canât seem to win fights when it counts, and the next great hope, Loopy Godinez, just lost.
That leaves Virna Jandiroba as the only other real option, and if something happens to her â itâs insane but true â Kowalkiewicz on five wins is suddenly a very viable option.
