UFC 307 Preview: Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington

Former two-time strawweight champion Carla Esparza will have her retirement fight on Sunday as she rematches one of the women she beat on her way to her first title – which she earned by winning The Ultimate Fighter season 20 – in Tecia Pennington.

Tecia’s placement on this card comes as no surprise given her marriage to current women’s bantamweight Champion Raquel ‘Rocky’ Pennington. ‘The Tiny Tornado’ will want to start the Pennington family off the  right on the early prelims with a big win.

It is especially meaningful given that their first matchup was over ten years ago, when both athletes’ careers were in the nascent stages. Pennington, back then known as Tecia Torres, was only 4-0 in her career while Carla was 9-2. Now that the experience levels are more even, Tecia appears confident in her ability to avenge her loss, the semifinal of TUF that season that left her one step short of competing for the first strawweight belt.

— Curtis Calhoun (@CalhounOnMMA) September 30, 2024It is well known that Carla Esparza is the most clear-cut wrestler in the division. She is almost a non-entity on the feet, possessing neither the athleticism, technique, or comfort to be a threat with her hands. As a former NAIA All-American college wrestler, her strength is her takedowns and top game.

Yet without too much in the way of setup, and with the inevitable loss of athleticism that being 36 years old brings, she may find it hard to get to Tecia’s hips on takedown attempts. Although ‘Tiny Tornado’ has a fairly average career takedown defense of 65%, almost half of the takedowns she has given up came in one fight, against Jessica Andrade. Further, her taekwondo and karate backgrounds have helped her develop a good sense of distance, which is key as a first layer of takedown defense. If an opponent cannot even attempt a shot then you cannot be taken down.

Pennington is also a good scrambler who does not accept bottom position easily. Forcing Esparza to do all she can to keep her down will keep the damage received to a minimum, and will give Torres an advantage with the judges – who value damage above all – should a round be close. It is of course possible that Esparza submits her or does just win a decision with top control, but Tecia has not aged poorly, still clearly being quite athletic for the division even at age 35.

The matchup of course will not be close on the feet, leaving Carla with just a few avenues to finding victory. I think Tecia will outstrike Carla, avoid takedowns for the most part, and win a comfortable decision, sending the former champion into retirement on a loss.